基于“三阶段法”的高速铁路短期运量预测

考虑到我国未来年度的OD分布预测中的路网构成变化、区域经济布局变动、区域经济增长速度差异等一些具有时变性和特殊性因素,采用在“四阶段法”运量预测基础上改进而成的“三阶段法”进行高速铁路短期客运量预测。首先采用组合预测模型进行趋势运量预测,然后采用多元LOGIT模型进行方式分担,最后采用弹性系数诱增模型进行诱增运量预测。以京沪高铁为例,采用“三阶段法”预测了2014年和2015年京沪高铁本线及跨线单向客流量。     

The value of travel time variance

This paper considers the value of travel time variability under scheduling preferences that are defined in terms of linearly time varying utility rates associated with being at the origin and at the destination. The main result is a simple expression for the value of travel time variability that does not depend on the shape of the travel time distribution. The related measure of travel time variability is the variance of travel time. These conclusions apply equally to travellers who can freely choose departure time and to travellers who use a scheduled service with fixed headway. Depending on parameters, travellers may be risk averse or risk seeking and the value of travel time may increase or decrease in the mean travel time.     

Additive measures of travel time variability

This paper derives a measure of travel time variability for travellers equipped with scheduling preferences defined in terms of time-varying utility rates, and who choose departure time optimally. The corresponding value of travel time variability is a constant that depends only on preference parameters. The measure is unique in being additive with respect to independent parts of a trip. It has the variance of travel time as a special case. Extension is provided to the case of travellers who use a scheduled service with fixed headway.     

膨胀性软岩隧道致灾机制研究与应用

隧道建设的规模和数量迅速发展,相关理论研究却相对不足,随着隧道越来越多地穿越诸如软弱围岩、溶洞等复杂、恶劣地质区域,对施工技术和理论研究的要求也更高,如何做到规避灾害,安全施工是大家一直关注的问题。以重庆市某公路隧道为依托,对穿越膨胀性软岩段隧道,提出不良地质构造与围岩条件、水的因素、不规则地应力以及工程因素等导致隧道灾害的因素,不同因素相互关联、相互影响,根据分析结果采取相应的防治方案来规避灾害。利用Poyting-Thomoson模型计算隧道围岩变形,与现场监控量测数据相结合,对隧道膨胀性软岩段的围岩变形做出预测,得出最佳二次衬砌支护时间。同时从初支二衬间的应力角度对膨胀性软岩进行了持续监测,表明了膨胀性软岩隧道段防治方案达到了预期目标。从致灾机制来分析隧道建设,可以更好地为工程决策服务。