基于三阶段最小二乘法探究诱增交通量

在诱增交通量的预测中,中国现有统计数据在精度和广度上的局限性,容易造成计算结果存在遗漏变量偏误和测量误差偏误;同时变量之间的相关性容易导致计算结果存在联立性问题。为克服这些问题,采用工具变量法中的三阶段最小二乘法探讨道路供给与交通需求之间的关系。基于国家统计数据库数据,选择车辆出行距离、民用汽车拥有量和交通拥堵水平三个内生变量构建联立方程模型,采用三阶段最小二乘法对联立方程进行估计,并给出短期、长期弹性系数的求解方法。结果表明,道路建设会导致车辆出行距离增加,不能解决中国城市交通拥堵问题,而大力发展公共交通可以降低交通拥堵水平。     

姿态变化对舰船感应磁性的影响

基于弱磁环境下铁磁质的磁化规律,利用舰船姿态变化模型和国际地磁参考场模型,研究不同磁航向情况下,横摇角、纵摇角和偏航角对舰船感应磁性各分量的影响。仿真分析表明,在地磁坐标系中,舰船的各个感应磁性分量除了受磁航向影响之外,还受横摇角、纵摇角和偏航角的调制作用,其中,横摇角的作用最为显著,使得相应磁性产生与横摇频率相同的变化;纵摇角的作用次之,偏航角的作用最小。     

降雨型滑坡的形成及链式演化机理分析

文章阐述了滑坡体的结构类型与破坏模式,分析了降雨对滑坡体作用的链式过程,并通过建立有限元模型进行模拟计算,预测滑坡体稳定的极限状态,分析在降雨作用下滑坡体特征参数的变化以及应力应变的情况,为滑坡体灾害的防治提供理论参考。     

基于微生物诱导碳酸钙沉积（MICP）改善淤泥质土强度

采用微生物诱导碳酸钙沉积(MICP)对淤泥质土进行处理,用于提高淤泥质土的强度。以武汉东湖淤泥为研究对象,对MICP改性淤泥质土进行快剪试验与固结快剪试验。试验结果表明:MICP改性淤泥质土能增大淤泥质土的内摩擦角,对其黏聚力改变较小;MICP改性淤泥质土,胶结液浓度在1mol/L时对土体内摩擦角提高效果最好,快剪试验中MICP改性淤泥质土的内摩擦角从素土的8.54°提升至23.18°,提升了171.4%;固结快剪试验中MICP改性淤泥质土的摩擦角从15.96°提升至25.36°,提升了58.9%;MICP改性淤泥质土,生成碳酸盐沉积把土体小颗粒胶结成大颗粒,提高了土体大颗粒的质量分数。     

Preferences for autonomous and alternative fuel-powered heavy-duty trucks in Germany

Germany is by far the largest contributor of greenhouse gas emissions in the European Union but adopted its own climate action plan to achieve greenhouse gas neutrality by 2050. The country’s third-largest emitter of greenhouse gas emissions is the transportation sector. As of January 2019, 99.7% of heavy-duty trucks registered in Germany run on diesel while the share of alternative fuel-powered passenger cars increases steadily. Apart from rising emissions, the industry faces a growing shortage of qualified truck drivers. A solution to increasing emissions and the shortage of drivers are autonomous and alternative fuel-powered heavy-duty trucks. We employed a choice-based conjoint analysis with employees from freight companies in Germany to find out how they assess the main attributes of innovative trucks. Our results reveal that the maximum driving range is the most important attribute followed by the refueling/recharging time. Tank-to-wheel emissions, on the other hand, was ranked as the least relevant attribute. Moreover, we present customers’ preference shares for future heavy-duty trucks until 2035. According to our results, freight companies are generally open to switching from conventional to low emission and (conditionally-) automated heavy-duty trucks, however, a close collaboration between truck manufacturers, customers, infrastructure companies, and policymakers is essential to spur the penetration of autonomous and alternative fuel-powered heavy-duty trucks.     

城市轨道交通诱增客流量预测分析

介绍了城市轨道交通诱增客流量的定义及现有的预测模型,并指出其在应用中存在的问题。分析了城市轨道交通诱增客流量预测的难点,指出城市发展、常规公交、票价、线网规模、出行成本及交通政策是预测诱增交通客流量中需要考虑的主要因素。给出了城市轨道交通诱增交通量预测框架。     

京津城际高速铁路运营初期运量结构分析

研究目的:高速铁路运营初期运量由转移运量和诱增运量构成。本文以京津城际高速铁路为例进行分析,以便对高速铁路运营初期运量结构有初步认识和理解。研究结论:高速铁路作为一种新的运输方式投入运营,必然打破原有运输系统平衡,使高速铁路产生转移和诱增运量。随着高速铁路运营趋于成熟和时间的推移,运输系统中各种运输方式将在新的基础上建立新的平衡,高速铁路的转移和诱增运量将会逐渐消失,随之而来只有在新的系统平衡基础上与其它运输方式共存发展的趋势运量。     

公路费用的构成与分摊

从经济学中引发费用公平的角度研究公路费用的构成和分摊；分析典型车型在等级道路上引发费用的构成；最后，对典型车型的各种引发费用进行初步的估算。     

The opening of the Amsterdam Ring Road

This paper presents the results of a major before-and-after study carried out to establish the short term effects of the removal of a severe bottleneck in the road network around Amsterdam. An important focus in the study was on measuring changes in the timing of travel, as well as changes in route choice, mode choice, destination choice and frequency of travel. The results of the study indicated that, in the short run, there was little or no change in mode choice, nor was there significant emergence of new induced trips. On the other hand, large shifts in time of travel as well as route choice were reported, emphasising the importance of alterations to the timing and routes of existing trips when congestion is relieved, and the need to consider the benefits these bring in evaluating the impact of any road investment.     

南京大胜关桥交直流供电系统电磁感应影响分析

南京大胜关桥的国铁和地铁接触网同桥面近距离水平敷设,这在国内尚属首次,并且无经验可参考.必需考虑交、直流带电线路间的电磁感应对运营、维护等带来的影响.结合国铁交流AT(自耦变压器)供电方式和直流供电方式的特点,对国铁交流系统对地铁直流系统的电磁场感应现象进行了初步估算,并就感应影响作出了初步分析,提出了一些解决措施.