波罗的海干散货运价指数波动性研究

为把握国际干散货市场运价指数的波动特征,规避航运经营风险,建立基于广义的自回归条件异方差(GARCH)的运价指数波动模型.选取四种船型的波罗的海干散货运价指数BCI、BPI、BHI、BSI作为研究的样本数据.利用EVIEWS软件,通过分析样本数据的基本统计特征和ARCH效应检验等,对四种船型分别建立了GARCH(1,1)模型.实例验证表明模型能很好地反映波罗的海干散货运价指数波动的敏感性和持续性规律,从而可为航运经营提供决策支持.     

无车承运人的优势分析和发展建议

对无车承运人的内涵、优势与发展瓶颈以及无车承运人与货运代理之间的联系与区别进行分析,提出我国发展无车承运人的建议,可供同行借鉴。     

货物运输快捷性、准时性的经济分析

从生产，流通，消费的关系出发，通过对运输与流通之间的经济关系的详细分析，论证了发展快捷货物运输系统的必要性和意义。     

摆动式转向架技术的创新与发展

介绍了摆动式转向架的基本原理,阐述了摆动式转向架技术在中国的创新与发展,总结了摆动式转向架在中国的推广应用情况。     

An assessment of the performance of the European long intermodal freight trains (LIFTS)

Intermodal rail/road freight transport has always been considered as a competitive alternative to its road freight counterpart in the European medium- to long-distance corridors (markets). Such consideration has been based on the increasing competitiveness of some innovative rail services and the existing and prospective performance of both modes in terms of the full social – internal or operational and external – costs. The most recent innovation of rail technologies and related services launched by some European railway companies, still at the conceptual level, is the Long Intermodal Freight Train (LIFT). This is supposed to be a block train operating in long-distance corridors (markets) with a substantial and regular freight demand.This paper develops analytical models for assessing the performance of the LIFTs, the already-operating Conventional Intermodal Freight Trains (CIFTs), and their road counterpart as well. The performance consists of the full – internal (private) and external – costs of the door-to-door delivery of loading units – containers, swap-bodies, and semi-trailers. The internal costs embrace the operational costs of the transport (rail and road) and intermodal terminal operators. The external costs include the costs of the impacts of door-to-door delivery of loading units on society and the environment. These negative externalities include noise, air pollution, traffic accidents, and congestion.The models are applied to a simplified version of intermodal and road transport system using inputs from the European freight transport sector. The aims are to compare the full costs of particular modalities in order to investigate the potential of the LIFTs as compared with the CIFTs in improving the internal efficiency of the rail freight sector and its competitiveness with respect to its road counterpart. In addition, the paper attempts to assess some effects on the potential modal shift of EU (European Union) transport policies on internalizing transport externalities.     

大秦线铁路货车抱闸原因及措施

对大秦铁路股份有限公司2004年的行车故障进行了统计,从车辆和机车操纵方面对货车抱闸的原因进行了分析,并提出了相应的防范措施。     

货车组合式制动梁梁体的优化设计

依据货车组合式制动梁在车辆上出现的失效方式,以L-C组合式制动梁为例,提出等寿命原则作为制动梁梁体的最优设计控制律的方案,得出撑杆端头处的过载荷是制动梁失效的主要因素。提出利用前、后段的拉压应变以及降低撑杆刚度来改善制动梁体的受力分布,并提出了通过调整支柱的长度来合理地提高制动梁体在非工作状态时的预应力,借以改善制动梁各部件在工作状态时的交变疲劳应力对梁体各部件的受力状况,进而提高货车组合式制动梁整体的使用寿命。文中给出了整定梁体各部件关键尺寸的计算步骤和设计方法。     

支持向量机在货运量预测中的应用研究

在分析现有货运量预测方法所存在问题的基础上,建立了货运量预测的支持向量机模型,并以我国1981～2001年的货运量和相关经济指标的历史统计数据作为学习样本,分别选用3种不同的核函数,通过拟合训练和外推预测分析,验证了支持向量机用于货运量预测的有效性,并对模型中的有关参数进行了探讨分析。     

机场货运交通量预测方法研究

该文首先分析了机场货运交通的特点,针对这些与常规交通预测不同的特点,构建了机场货运交通预测模型,模型中不但考虑了机场货邮吞吐量,而且考虑了货运业务的客运需求。最后,以深圳机场规划为例,进行了货运交通预测。     

货车轮对的运用可靠性

分析了货车轮对在运用中出现故障的原因,提出了提高轮对使用期限的方法和轮对修复的具体措施。