���������Ϣϵͳ���о������

论述运输管理信息系统的设计目标以及系统的功能结构，结合具体的应用背景，提出了运输管理信息系统的解决方案，并且以模块化分的方式对于系统功能的实现进行了探讨，介绍了系统的主要特点。     

Future electricity demand from battery‐powered vehicles

An important decision faced by airline schedulers is how to adapt the flight schedule and aircraft assignment to unforeseen perturbations in an established schedule. In the face of unforeseen aircraft delays, schedulers have to decide which flights to delay, and when delays become excessive, which to cancel. Current scheduling models deal with simple decision problems of delay or cancellation, but not with both simultaneously. But in practice the optimal decision may involve results from the integration of both flight cancellations and delays. In Part I of this paper, a quadratic programming model for the integration decision problem is given. The model can formulate the integration of flight cancellations and delays as well as some special cases, such as the ferrying of surplus aircraft and the possibility of swapping different types of aircraft. In this paper, based on the special structure of the model, an effective algorithm is presented, sufficient computational experiments are conducted and some results are reported. These show that we can expect to obtain a sufficiently good solution in terms of reasonable CPU time.     

A threshold model of social contagion process for evacuation decision making

Individual evacuation decisions are often characterized by the influence of one’s social network. In this paper a threshold model of social contagion, originally proposed in the network science literature, is presented to characterize this social influence in the evacuation decision making process. Initiated by a single agent, the condition of a cascade when a portion of the population decides to evacuate has been derived from the model. Simulation models are also developed to investigate the effects of community mixing patterns and the initial seed on cascade propagation and the effect of previous time-steps considered by the agents and the strength of ties on average cascade size. Insights related to social influence include the significant role of mixing patterns among communities in the network and the role of the initial seed on cascade propagation. Specifically, faster propagation of warning is observed in community networks with greater inter-community connections.     

A decision support approach to the computerisation of some operational decision problems in community transport

Community Transport (CT) in the UK operates a diverse range of services, and organisations are computerising management and operational functions. This paper describes the approach which has been taken to computerising four operational decision making functions.

The paper considers models of human decision making and problem solving, with particular reference to an information processing view of cognitive activity and to perception and memory. The design of decision support systems is also discussed.

Four decision problems are considered. For each, the paper considers how people tackle the problem, how computers can be used to tackle it and the approach which has been adopted.

For allocating trips to vehicles using a diary, the approach has been to provide a representation on screen of a manual diary. For vehicle brokerage, vehicles are presented to the operator allocating a booking in an order based on the Sequence Number, an index of how ‘difficult to book’ a vehicle is, and the distance of the vehicle's base from the start point of the trip. For the sorting of passenger pick‐ups into an efficient tour, traditional solutions to the travelling salesperson problem have been rejected in favour of a solution using spacefilling curves. Finally, for allocating dial‐a‐ride passenger trips to vehicle shifts an approach has been chosen which presents the operator with appropriate information rather than attempting to automate the scheduling.

The paper concludes that the approach to the diary has been successful and accepted by operators, although the similar approach to the dial‐a‐ride scheduling has not, as the system has not yet been able to replace manual scheduling aids. The facility to order passenger pick‐ups is little used by operators. Finally, it is suggested that the vehicle brokerage problem may be an appropriate use of fuzzy logic.     

公路养护成本预测和养护方案决策方法的研究

考虑多种不确定因素对公路养护成本实际值的影响,针对公路养护成本预测与养护方案决策在成本与风险两个方面的实际要求,运用决策原理和数理统计的方法,对公路养护成本预测与养护方案决策的方法问题进行了研究。     

基于数据仓库的决策支持系统体系结构

在分析传统DSS的不足之后，提出了基于数据仓库决策支持系统的体系结构，主要包括模型库、方法库、知识库和数据仓库及其相应的管理系统，联机分析处理、数据挖掘单元和问题综合处理单元等几部分组成．研究了系统中各部分的功能、相互关系及基于数据仓库的决策支持系统的关键技术．     

海洋环境监测是海洋发展和维权的支撑

海洋维权装备必须适应海洋环境,海洋环境又无休止地影响着海洋装备的功能和性能.要想提高装备技术水平,发挥装备的最大效能,在应用和研制装备的同时,要充分了解海洋环境对装备的诸多影响,要研究海洋环境与装备相关性技术.本文根据海洋维权装备发展顶层设计的需求,从功能上定性地探讨分析海洋环境对雷达探测、水声探测、目标识别、精确制导、信号传输、导航定位等方面的影响,提出海洋维权装备对海洋环境的适应性要求和对海洋环境效应技术的支撑性需求,提出把海洋环境监测要素纳入海战场辅助决策体系.海洋环境监测既是人类认知海洋、开发海洋、防灾救灾、海战场建设的需要,又是海洋发展和维权的支撑和先导,军民共建,军民共享,为发展海洋经济,保护海洋权益而励志奋进!     

铁路建设项目投资分析研究

结合铁路建设项目决策和设计阶段投资管理实践，针对研究和设计工作，以提升铁路投资管理水平为目的，以加强投资分析为切入点，分析投资分析在投资管理工作中的定位以及存在的主要问题，提出了投资分析的主要原则、内容、方法和步骤，并对如何做好今后的投资分析工作提出了有益的意见和建议。     

基于层次蝙蝠算法的应急车辆调度与交通疏散协同决策

城市路网多事故应急救援中，因交通拥堵造成应急车辆滞留现象时常发生，严重影响道路交通事故救援效率.提出通过交通疏散提高救援路径的可靠性，构建双层规划模型对应急车辆调度和交通疏散进行协同决策. 设计一种双层蝙蝠算法，上层算法在应急车辆需求、事故时间窗和可用车辆约束下求解响应时间最短的调度方案，下层算法在路段容量和疏散需求约束下求解多条最短路径的交通疏散策略，从中选取最短时间路径. 算例结果表明，本文模型通过缩短应急车辆在途时间有效提升了应急救援效率，算法具有优秀的寻优能力和运行速度.     

基于智能体模拟的浮动式停车价格实施效果研究

在城市机动车保有量快速增长的背景下,制定合理的停车价格对缓解停车难问题具有重要的作用. 基于多智能体的建模方法,结合典型城市商业区停车调查数据搭建仿真环境,通过编程实现停车过程中的行为决策规则,建立浮动式停车价格下的路内停车模拟平台,并对浮动式停车价格的实施效果进行研究. 模拟结果表明,浮动式停车价格策略的实施不仅使路内停车资源的利用更为均衡,区域内车位紧张状况有所缓解,停车寻泊时间有所减少,还提高了周边道路上车辆运行速度. 本研究可以为提高停车效率、缓解区域道路交通拥堵提供一定决策建议.