舰船顶层设计中的耐波性预报模型研究

通过改变母船的船长和剖面参数来改变船型,得到系列样本船型,应用基于切片法理论的舰船耐波性计算程序对母船及样本船型进行计算,将所得计算结果进行多元回归分析,得到船舶耐波性预报数学模型.分别用耐波性计算程序和回归模型对例船进行计算,结果证明该预报模型具有较高的精度.     

Part 2. Beyond single-outcome models: Decompositions of aggregate and disaggregate road safety risk

The second part of the state-of-the-art focuses on the development of the founders' double streams explaining single-outcome indicators (probability of accidents and fatalities, respectively) by fixed form regression, as outlined in the Part 1. Following Page (1997, pp. 67–122, 2001) and others, we use as turning point of the evolution of both aggregate and discrete approaches the DRAG-1 model of 1984, itself based on aggregate data, which introduced four key innovations in principle applicable to both streams.     

A nested logit model of mode choice for inland movement of export shipments: A case study of containerised export cargo from India

Predominance of containerised mode of transport for export of general cargo has influenced the mode choices on the inland segment. Prior to containerisation the general cargo for export moved to ports invariably on road in break bulk form. Growth of containerisation led to development of inland terminals enabling an exporter to obtain export clearance at the inland points. This process facilitated an exporter to move cargo either in break bulk or in containerised form, and as inland terminals facilitated aggregation an exporter could move cargo either by road or rail. Thus containerisation increased the inland transport options for an exporter from one to three. The paper develops discrete choice models in the Indian context for inland movement of containerised export cargo. Primary data was collected from 124 export firms through a structured questionnaire. This data is supplemented with data from transport firms and terminal operators. Using the above data, a nested logit model with rail container and road truck in one branch was found to predict the mode choice behaviour best. Amongst the transport attributes, total cost and total transit time were found to be influencing the mode choices significantly. The study however did not find the effect of reliability and loss and damage significant. In addition, the model also predicts that non transport attributes - like the percentage of letters of credit that materialise with inland way bills and the value of export benefits that materialise after export - are important in the mode choice decision.     

A study of factors influencing the severity of road crashes involving drunk drivers and non drunk drivers

In this study, an attempt has been made to develop Multinomial Logit (MNL) model by analysing the drunken and non drunken drivers involved in road crashes on Indian highways. Multinomial Logit model has been deployed to assess the influence of various parameters like vehicular, environment and geometric factors on the set of drivers who were found to be drunk at the time of getting involved in the road crash and those who were not under the influence of alcohol at the time of meeting with the road crash. The total economic cost of road crashes in the case of non-drunk driver road crash is Rs. 1046.27 million whereas in the case of drunk driver road crashes it is estimated to be Rs. 204.50 million. Further, it can be observed that economic cost of drunk driver road crashes is varying from 13 to 19 % across different types of road crashes.     

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针对城市道路环境中驾驶人的应激响应操作时间特性,基于虚拟现实技术搭建了测试平台,对28名驾驶人在不同应激场景下的应激操作时间进行了研究.不同应激场景下的数据分析结果表明,非熟练驾驶人的应激操作时间要小于熟练驾驶人,且时间值较为稳定.青年驾驶人的操作时间值最小,且数据最为稳定.此外,随着车速的上升,驾驶人操作时间呈现下降趋势,两者之间符合对数函数关系.以驾驶经验、驾驶人年龄和车速为自变量,采用对数函数的多元线性预测模型能够对驾驶人的应激操作时间进行准确预测,被试样本实测值落在预测区间的比例达到了98.37%.     

主成分回归的新疆兵团道路客运量预测

道路客运量预测是道路运输业规划的基础工作,科学准确地预测新疆生产建设兵团道路客运量是制定其运输业发展规划、发展战略的重要理论依据。根据新疆生产建设兵团道路旅客运输业发展特点,运用spass统计软件,综合主成分分析法和全回归法,确定道路客运量的主要因素,构建客运量预测模型,实现spass主成分回归分析在新疆生产建设兵团道路客运量预测中的应用。     

A multinomial logit car use model for a megacity of the developing world: Istanbul

The increase in motor vehicle use is one of the important factors that cause traffic congestion, especially in megacities. Thus, the reasons behind this increase require serious attention. This paper offers an analysis of this kind, for a megacity from the developing world, Istanbul. A stratified multinomial logit model accounting for the availability of a second vehicle in the household is estimated for a sample drawn from a questionnaire to gather information of actual car use in Istanbul. This estimation is only possible through a unique data generation process that converts actual preferences into a choice study setting. In addition, a simulation study, generally utilized in the analyses of discrimination between certain layers of society, and a scenario analysis related to changes in income are also included in the paper for a better understanding of the nature of the topic. The results show that the behavior of households with a second vehicle available and not available varies significantly due to household, individual and professional-related characteristics.     

一种永磁同步电机声品质主观评价方法研究

对永磁同步电机的稳态信号声品质进行了分析,并以声压级、响度、尖锐度、语音清晰度、波动度、粗糙度和音调度作为评价指标,建立了永磁同步电机声品质评价体系.采用分组成对比较法进行了主观评价,通过Bradley-Terry算法对评价结果进行了优化处理,分别搭建多元线性回归预测模型和MPGA-RBF预测模型,通过预留的检验样本对...     

快速公交客流量影响因素解释结构模型构建与应用

针对当前交通拥堵、能源紧张、尾气污染等一系列问题,为加快快速公共交通的发展、提高公共交通利用率,本文找出了影响快速公交客流的主要因素,利用系统工程学中的ISM方法,构建了快速公交客流系统解释结构模型,通过分析探讨快速公交客流的主要影响因素,进而明确了各因素间的清晰结构,得到影响快速公交客流量的5级递阶结构;最后找出影响快速公交客流因素的各影响因素.通过影响因素,建立了多元回归模型,从影响程度、影响方向、影响时期分别归类分析.通过分析各层级因素对快速公交客流量的影响,可引导更多居民选择快速公交出行,对缓解交通压力提供了一定方法指导和决策支持.并通过合理分析为快速公交运输服务提出了建议.