The challenge of liberalising domestic airline competition in a less developed country

A new wave of liberalisation of domestic airline competition is taking place in less developed nations, although the initial motivation in most cases is to supplement the capacity of the government's own airline. Liberalisation tends to begin with free market entry and a strong interest in privatisation while other regulatory controls are maintained. This position is untenable and policy makers in the less developed countries are having to learn quickly without the benefit of the detailed analyses that preceded liberalisation in the developed countries. This paper explores these problems and focuses on the lessons that policy makers in the less developed countries can draw from experiences elsewhere.     

Policy challenges of increasing automation in driving

The convergence of information and communication technologies (ICT) with automotive technologies has already resulted in automation features in road vehicles and this trend is expected to continue in the future owing to consumer demand, dropping costs of components, and improved reliability. While the automation features that have taken place so far are mainly in the form of information and driver warning technologies (classified as level I pre-2010), future developments in the medium term (level II 2010–2025) are expected to exhibit connected cognitive vehicle features and encompass increasing degree of automation in the form of advanced driver assistance systems. Although autonomous vehicles have been developed for research purposes and are being tested in controlled driving missions, the autonomous driving case is only a long term (level III 2025 +) scenario. This paper contributes knowledge on technological forecasts regarding automation, policy challenges for each level of technology development and application context, and the essential instrument of cost-effectiveness for policy analysis which enables policy decisions on the automation systems to be assessed in a consistent and balanced manner. The cost of a system per vehicle is viewed against its effectiveness in meeting policy objectives of improving safety, efficiency, mobility, convenience and reducing environmental effects. Example applications are provided that illustrate the contribution of the methodology in providing information for supporting policy decisions. Given the uncertainties in system costs as well as effectiveness, the tool for assessing policies for future generation features probabilistic and utility-theoretic analysis capability. The policy issues defined and the assessment framework enable the resolution of policy challenges while allowing worthy innovative automation in driving to enhance future road transportation.     

初始条件对驾驶员逐日路径选择行为和网络交通流演化的影响

从查阅到的文献可以看到,在驾驶员逐日路径选择行为及网络交通流演化的研究中,均假定驾驶员第1天对路径的理解行程时间相同,也即初始条件中没有考虑驾驶员的个体差异性。首先,对初始条件和驾驶员逐日路径选择过程建模,在2条平行路径的简单路网中,运用Agent仿真方法模拟了不同初始条件下驾驶员逐日路径选择过程。结果表明：路网达到平衡所需的时间与驾驶员对历史信息的依赖程度显著相关,而与第1天驾驶员对路径行程时间理解的相关差异性不显著;路网平衡和用户平衡的差别与两者均显著相关。虽然在不同情况下路网均能够达到近似的用户平衡状态,但是平衡时驾驶员对2条路径的理解行程时间存在较大差异。     

沥青混合料拉压疲劳损伤试验

为研究沥青路面结构实际处于拉压应力作用下的疲劳损伤特性,针对沥青混合料AC-13开展了连续式交变正弦波形加载的小梁拉压疲劳试验。依据损伤力学基本理论,采用唯象学方法分析了沥青混合料的拉压疲劳损伤特性。介绍了拉压疲劳试验方法及影响因素,根据疲劳试验结果得到了拉压疲劳方程;基于弹性模量定义的损伤变量,建立了拉压疲劳损伤模型,拟合疲劳试验结果确定了损伤参数,获得了考虑应力水平的拉压疲劳损伤演化方程。研究结果表明:疲劳损伤参数α、β随应力水平增大而增大,且近似呈线性关系;拉压疲劳损伤演化大致呈3阶段变化规律,即损伤萌生、损伤稳定增长和损伤失稳破坏阶段;应力水平越大的损伤演化曲线越靠下,随寿命比变化疲劳损伤演化速度越缓和。     

基于差分进化的共面矩形线圈均匀磁场优化

研究了单矩形线圈磁场的均匀性,利用差分进化算法对磁场均匀度的定量描述,给出了双矩形线圈磁场的计算公式及其变化规律,并利用差分进化算法进行了求解,取得了很好的结果。     

长江太仓—南通河段河道演变特性与航道治理思路分析

长江太仓—南通段深水航道治理是江苏省境内12.5 m深水航道建设的首期工程。该河段地处长江潮汐河口的过渡段,径流与潮流强弱交替变化频繁,水沙运动复杂多变,洲滩冲淤演变剧烈,航道条件极不稳定,治理难度大。通过长期观测分析,辨析河床演变规律,揭示碍航浅区成因,从疏浚、全面控制洲滩形态、控制洲滩关键边界等不同治理对策进行深入研究,形成"稳定航道主边界、增强浅区落潮动力"的治理认识。目前,控制洲滩关键边界、利用河流动力延伸工程效力的治理方案已通过审批,即将开工实施。     

长江中游太平口水道河床演变趋势与模型预测成果对比分析

分析了荆州长江大桥所在沙市河段太平口水道演变特征,并同模型试验预测的三峡水库蓄水运用后桥区河段演变趋势进行对比分析。实践表明,利用模型试验手段对该河段河床演变趋势预测是成功的,为其航道整治方案的制定和工程实施顺序提供了科学依据。     

均匀设计法在铅酸蓄电池正板栅合金研究中的应用

介绍了均匀设计软件在铅酸蓄电池正极板栅合金研究课题中的应用。考察了不同配方合金的耐腐蚀性能和析氢电位,将用均匀设计软件拟合得到的两个数学模型进行综合分析,根据回归方程找出了影响合金性能的主要因素及个因素之间的关系,并得到最优全局解,结合工艺条件将配方进行了微调,该配方合金较好地满足了电池的使用要求。     

Tradable emission permit system for urban motorists: The neo-classical standard model revisited

This article deals with the feasibility of a tradable emission permit system (TEPs) for urban motorists. The objective is to develop a new microeconomic theoretical model to reduce urban pollution. We suppose that the city's regulating authority sets up a tradable emission permit system based on the number of kilometres covered by private cars. By the use of a Constant Elasticity of Substitution (CES) function, we determine the equilibrium under an environmental constraint and analyse the effects of a TEPs on social welfare. The aim is to find the optimal quantity of permits leading to the desired environmental objective. The analytical and numerical results of the model show the instrument's feasibility and efficiency. An important variable in the model must be taken into account: the knowledge of environmental damage. This variable will clearly influence the tool's success.     

Assessment of policies and detection of unintended effects: Guiding principles for the consideration of methods and tools in policy-packaging

Single policies or entire policy packages are often assessed using different methods aiming at a quantification of effects as well as the detection of undesired outcomes. The knowledge of potential impacts is essential to take informed policy actions. Hence, there is a constant need for efficient assessment approaches to support policy decision-making. A broad range of such assessment methods is used in policymaking. Some of them are using quantitative data; others are characterized by qualitative information, observations or opinions. Practical experiences with transport policy prove that these methods all have their pros and cons, but none of them are able to detect the full range of effects. This leads to important questions this article deals with, such as what are the strengths and limitations of the different tools and methods for assessing impacts, and how should different approaches be integrated into the policymaking processes?We analyze the ability of assessment methods to detect different kinds of intended and unintended effects, and introduce the concepts of structurally open (mainly qualitative) and structurally closed (mainly quantitative) methods. It is argued that these concepts support making the pros and cons of the tools and methods more explicit and, thus, allow integrating the different tools and methods into the process of policy packaging. Based on a policy package example, we provide practical recommendations on how to integrate different assessment methods adequately and show that both quantitative and qualitative tools should be used in different phases of the process. The main recommendation is to alternate the application of assessment methods with structurally open methods used in the beginning and the end of the policymaking process and applying structurally closed methods in between.