Evolution of coastal hazards policies in the United States

The ocean and Great Lakes coasts of the United States are experiencing widespread economic and environmental damage from coastal flooding and erosion. During this century, public response to such coastal hazards has evolved haphazardly in response to particular disasters. Over time, however, the range of response has broadened as research has helped to refine public understanding of physical coastal processes, and specific disasters have been studied before longer term forms of institutional response have been formulated. Earlier reliance on engineered shoreline protection has been supplemented by beach nourishment, flood insurance, building and land use regulations, coastal zone planning, and other approaches. This article interprets the evolution of such public policy innovations in terms of a model that depicts the interaction of spatially differentiated systems of physical, legal, and cultural phenomena in the coastal context.     

Will a driving restriction policy reduce car trips?—The case study of Beijing,China

A driving restriction policy, as one of the control-and-command rationing measures, is a politically acceptable policy tool to address traffic congestion and air pollution in some countries and cities in the world. Beijing is the first city in China to implement this policy. A one-day-a-week driving restriction scheme was expected to take 20% of cars off the road every week day. Using household survey and travel diary data, we analyze the short-term effect of this driving restriction policy on individual travel mode choice. The data also allow us to identify which demographic groups are more likely to break the restriction rule. The estimates reveal that the restriction policy in Beijing does not have significant influence on individuals’ decisions to drive, as compared with the policy’s influence on public transit. The rule-breaking behavior is constant and pervasive. We found that 47.8% of the regulated car owners didn’t follow the restriction rules, and drove “illegally” to their destination places. On average, car owners who traveled during peak hours and/or for work trips, and whose destinations were farther away from the city center or subway stations, were more likely to break the driving restriction rules. Therefore, Beijing is probably in need of more comprehensive and palatable policy instruments (e.g., a combination of congestion tolls, parking fees, fuel taxes, and high-speed transit facilities) to effectively alleviate traffic congestion and air pollution.     

Evolution of the household vehicle fleet: Anticipating fleet composition, PHEV adoption and GHG emissions in Austin, Texas

In today’s world of volatile fuel prices and climate concerns, there is little study on the relationship between vehicle ownership patterns and attitudes toward vehicle cost (including fuel prices and feebates) and vehicle technologies. This work provides new data on ownership decisions and owner preferences under various scenarios, coupled with calibrated models to microsimulate Austin’s personal-fleet evolution.Opinion survey results suggest that most Austinites (63%, population-corrected share) support a feebate policy to favor more fuel efficient vehicles. Top purchase criteria are price, type/class, and fuel economy. Most (56%) respondents also indicated that they would consider purchasing a Plug-in Hybrid Electric Vehicle (PHEV) if it were to cost $6000 more than its conventional, gasoline-powered counterpart. And many respond strongly to signals on the external (health and climate) costs of a vehicle’s emissions, more strongly than they respond to information on fuel cost savings.Twenty five-year simulations of Austin’s household vehicle fleet suggest that, under all scenarios modeled, Austin’s vehicle usage levels (measured in total vehicle miles traveled or VMT) are predicted to increase overall, along with average vehicle ownership levels (both per household and per capita). Under a feebate, HEVs, PHEVs and Smart Cars are estimated to represent 25% of the fleet’s VMT by simulation year 25; this scenario is predicted to raise total regional VMT slightly (just 2.32%, by simulation year 25), relative to the trend scenario, while reducing CO₂ emissions only slightly (by 5.62%, relative to trend). Doubling the trend-case gas price to $5/gallon is simulated to reduce the year-25 vehicle use levels by 24% and CO₂ emissions by 30% (relative to trend).Two- and three-vehicle households are simulated to be the highest adopters of HEVs and PHEVs across all scenarios. The combined share of vans, pickup trucks, sport utility vehicles (SUVs), and cross-over utility vehicles (CUVs) is lowest under the feebate scenario, at 35% (versus 47% in Austin’s current household fleet). Feebate-policy receipts are forecasted to exceed rebates in each simulation year.In the longer term, gas price dynamics, tax incentives, feebates and purchase prices along with new technologies, government-industry partnerships, and more accurate information on range and recharging times (which increase customer confidence in EV technologies) should have added effects on energy dependence and greenhouse gas emissions.     

Turning Off the Heat: Impacts of Power Plant Decommissioning on Green Turtle Research in San Diego Bay

Green turtles (Chelonia mydas) are among the most high profile species in San Diego Bay, California, and understanding impacts of coastal development and industry is essential to the management and conservation of this local population. Here we describe power plant changing energy production and its impact on turtle habitat use and our ability to research and manage this population. For over 20 years, green sea turtles have been captured, assessed, and tagged near the South Bay Power Plant (SBPP) in the San Diego Bay; from 2002–2011, 104 turtles were captured on 212 occasions. As the 50-year-old SBPP generates less energy, effluent patterns change and water temperatures decrease, presumably to more natural conditions. There has been a concurrent decrease in turtle-capture success, perhaps due to lesser visitation to the effluent site where nets are tended. Seasonal catch-per-unit-effort declined from a high of 4.14 turtles per monitoring day, to a nine-year low of 1.33 during the 2010–2011 season. It is already apparent that management decisions related to energy policy are affecting the habitat and behavior of this stock of endangered turtles. Green turtles are expected to remain in the San Diego Bay after the SBPP becomes inoperative and continuing research will monitor future impacts and distribution shifts resulting from the expected changes in thermal pattern within south San Diego Bay. Research efforts to study this population (i.e., capture methods and locations) will require modification in response to these changes. Lessons learned here are applicable to the immediate coastal development of San Diego, as well as at similar interactions between marine turtles and industrial thermal effluent discharge throughout Southern California, the United States, and beyond.     

城市交通与城市空间结构演变

通过回顾城市交通和城市空间结构的发展演变过程，研究城市交通引导城市空间结构健康“生长”的有效途径，提出通过公共交通引导城市可持续发展的模式，以及适合中国特色的和谐城市形态和城市交通。     

非一致地震激励下大跨度斜拉桥空间响应分析

基于二维相干非一致激励功率谱模型，采用随机过程理论关于幅值、相位与功率谱的关系式，根据场地地震危险性评价和设计地震动参数合成人工地震波，考虑波动传播效应和多点激励效应，分析了某座跨长江的大跨度斜拉桥在地震激励下的空间非线性响应特性，计算了桥梁结构关键部位在地震力作用下的响应特性，并与一致激励下对应响应量进行比较。认为非一致激励下大跨斜拉桥关键部位的某些响应粱大幅增加。反应了进行非一致响应分析的必要性。     

Experiential Incrementalism: On the Theory and Technique to Implement Transport Plans and Policies

The paper describes an approach to the vexing problem of transport planning and policy. It deals jointly with three questions, which in today's practice are addressed separately: How are hypotheses about transport problems and alternatives to their solution developed? How can a good plan or policy be identified? What is the process of implementing a transport plan or policy? In doing this the paper has the ambitious objective of proposing a new model and process for transport planning and policy. It is applicable in developed and developing countries and is not restricted to the transport sector. The paper builds on, and is a reinterpretation of two cornerstone transport planning and decision-making models – the CATS (Chicago Area Transportation Study) Planning and Design Model and Braybrooke and Lindblom's Disjointed Incrementalism. It advances a technique of experiential incrementalism (termed polisanalysis) to develop and implement plans and policies. It proposes that problems should be diagnosed by observation and continuous data collection; that their continuous analysis, finding the “cure”, and implementation take place through the method of experiential incrementalism. In this method interventions are grounded on the theories of neoinstitutional economics and psychoanalysis and derived using contact function, explained in the paper, which renders the method scientific replicability. Experiential incrementalism can employ a wider array of options in planning and policy than is presently thought possible. Like other scientific methods, its application requires rigorous training.     

Elasticities for taxicab fares and service availability

This study utilizes a unique dataset from New York City to examine the effects of taxi fare increases on trip demand and the availability of taxi service. The elasticity of trip demand with respect to fares is estimated to be –0.22; the elasticity of service availability with respect to the taxi fare is 0.28; and the elasticity of service availability with respect to total supply of service is near 1.0. These results have important implications for taxi regulatory decisions. First, fare increases do substantially increase industry revenues but at a lesser rate than the percentage increase in the fare. The implication for policy-makers is that fare elasticities must be carefully considered to obtain desired improvements in drivers' earnings. Second, service availability -- an important aspect of service quality that is generally overlooked during fare policy debates -- should be a central consideration in fare setting, given the considerable impact of fares on availability. Finally, where the supply of cabs needs to be expanded, the number of cabs can be significantly increased without harming the revenue stream of existing operators. This finding alleviates a major industry objection to issuing additional taxicab licenses.     

时间多项式进化算法在旅行商问题中的研究

提出了一种模拟生物遗传的进化算法，并将该算法应用于旅行商问题得到了较好的结果，根据达尔文进化论的优化过程，结合自然选择原则提出了启发式算法，该算法的时间复杂性与快速排序策略相当。在文中利用该算法求解中国旅行商问题得到目前的最佳结果。     

我国企业年金税收政策之我见

阐述了我国企业年金税收政策。分析了目前企业年金税收政策存在问题。指出了现行政策对我国年金发展存在的影响,以期促进我国企业年金的发展。