Understanding members' carsharing (activity) persistency by using econometric model

Carsharing is an innovative travel alternative that has recently experienced considerable growth and become part of sustainable transportation initiatives. Although carsharing is becoming increasingly a popular alternative transportation mode in North America, it is still an under‐researched area. Current research is aimed at better understanding of the behavior of carsharing users. For every member, a two‐stage approach microsimulates the probability of being active in any month using a binary probit model and given that a particular member is active during a month, the probability of that member using the service multiple times using a random utility‐based model. The model is estimated using empirical data from one of the largest carsharing companies in North America. The model estimates reveal that the activity persistency of members is positively linked to previous behaviors for up to 4 months, and that the influence of previous months weakens over time. It also shows that some attributes of the traveler (gender, age, and language spoken at home) impact his or her behaviors. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

铁路信号综合防雷中接地的具体作法

针对现场实际,对铁路信号综合防雷中地网设置的具体作法进行了探索,阐述了设置地网时应当注意的技术问题。     

The quality of survey data: Telephone versus face-to-face interviews

Those designing surveys and producing data have always been concerned about its quality. The increasing stringency of the financial constraints which affect public authorities and the increased scope of involvement in the regulation of urban travel has led us to pay even greater attention to the quality of data. This issue is frequently covered in the literature on survey methods. However, comparisons between different survey methods are more rarely conducted. The decision to conduct such an analysis is partly the result of the development of telephone use to the detriment of other survey modes in many countries and also the development of Computer-Aided Telephone Interviewing (CATI) which facilitates the running and monitoring of the survey.This paper examines several aspects of this question in order to compare the performance of telephone and face-to-face interviews. The first aspect is the representativeness of the sample, and therefore relates mainly to the issue of nonresponses and the choice of a sample base. The second concerns the accuracy of the information and involves the choice of a survey area and the recording of all trips, including short-distance travel. Finally, the quality of data is obviously determined by the quality of the responses given by those interviewed.The answers we give frequently depend on the objective of the surveys, which leads us to put forward a table which summarizes the performance of telephone and face-to-face interviews on the basis of the main objective of the survey. Broadly, the telephone seems to be the favoured tool for surveys in the area of transport planning and surveys which aim to provide data for forecasting models, mostly on the grounds of cost. However, face-to-face techniques are often preferred for surveys which aim to discover and analyze the factors which explain individual travel behaviour.     

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同时考虑社会利益和个人利益，选取公交系统(包括常规公交和出租车)出行者占用道路总面积、广义出行费用、拥挤度为指标建立多目标函数模型，求得出租车出行占公交系统出行的比例，根据公交系统出行总比例最终确定全方式出行结构中出租车出行方式分担率．实例分析证明该方法所需数据量少、可操作性强，宏观政策及其微观影响在预测过程中互为反馈，该方法既可用于确定出租车出行方式分担率，又可为交通政策决策者提供理论依据．     

软岩高边坡多级框架锚杆设计计算方法

针对加固软岩高边坡多级锚杆框架现有设计计算方法的不足,基于多级框架锚杆加固边坡机理,确定不同的边坡破坏模式.在此基础上,在给定的设计安全系数下,通过分析边坡稳定性确定锚杆设计拉力;进而考虑锚杆与框架梁以及框架梁与坡体之间的相互作用,根据静力平衡和变形协调关系并采用Winkler地基模型计算梁的设计内力;由此建立了多级框架锚杆的一种新的设计计算方法,并通过室内模型试验验证了所提方法的合理性.研究结果表明,作用于各级坡框架梁的坡体压力,整体上具有“中间大,两端小”的抛物线型分布特点.      

渗透海床上波浪传播特性的研究

波浪在渗透海床上传播时会发生波高的衰减.基于Dean和Dalrymple(1984年)提出的渗透海床上波浪传播的理论模型,推导了波浪运动的速度势表达式和色散关系,并采用迭代方法,提出了一种求解色散方程的简单高效的数值算法,从而求得波浪的空间衰减系数(即复波数虚部).在此基础之上,研究了不同渗透系数和不同水深条件下波高的衰减规律,结果表明,波浪在传播过程中波高按指数衰减,衰减速率随渗透系数的增大和相对水深的减小而增大,但由于波浪的空间衰减系数较小,波浪的衰减也较为缓慢,通常情况下,只有当波浪长距离传播时,海床渗透导致的波高衰减才较为显著.     

诱发电位潜伏期变化的分析处理方法

研究了诱发电位的主要检测参数潜伏期变化的估计测定方法：广义相关时间延迟方法、处适应时间延迟估计方法和自适应相位谱时间延迟估计方法,并分析了动态跟踪潜伏期时变规律的有效性。     

城市交通规划模型的探讨

通过对中美两国城市交通模型的现状和发展的比较.首先回顾了美国在交通规划模型实践中的经验和存在的问题,并分析了中国交通问题的特征,及其交通模型的选择和数据采集方面的优势,主张中国在模型的开发和应用上,不应该局限于西方国家的实践经验,而应当大胆创新.其次,认为交通规划模型的研发,应该从提高预测能力和增强分析能力两个层面入手.当前一项紧迫的任务是由国家交通运输部组织专家工作组,对不同的模型和方法做客观的评价,为交通规划建模提供规范化的技术指导.最后,讨论了交通规划和GIS软件在实际应用中常常被忽略的一些技术问题.     

基于RFID电子车牌数据的公交行程时间预测方法

为了给公交优先信号配时系统提供足够的"思考"时间和准确的控制依据,基于重庆市RFID电子车牌数据提出了一种采用自适应渐消卡尔曼滤波和小波神经网络组合模型动态预测公交行程时间的方法。综合分析公交行程时间的动态和静态影响因素,选取的模型输入参量为标准车流量、路段车辆平均行程时间、平均车速离散性和前班次公交行程时间。利用RFID电子车牌系统采集重庆市鹅公岩大桥路段车辆行驶数据,选取3 000组实际运行数据完成公交行程时间预测模型的训练,另筛选50组数据验证模型的有效性和准确性。研究结果表明：组合模型可动态自适应预测公交行程时间,预测值平均相对误差为3.23%,绝对误差集中在8 s左右,明显优于2种单一模型和基于传统GPS数据的公交行程时间预测模型,可认为选择RFID电子车牌数据作为组合模型的输入,能够明显改善模型预测精度;组合模型预测值的残差分布更为集中、鲁棒性较好,泛化能力强。选择平均绝对误差值、均方根误差值和平均绝对百分比误差作为模型评价指标,结果进一步表明,组合模型的综合预测效果明显优于单一的自适应渐消卡尔曼滤波和小波神经网络。研究方案可为先进公交信息化系统提供良好的技术支撑。     

套管腐蚀及屏蔽影响现场实验及其检测方法

通过模拟工程实践状态条件下,穿越管段套管腐蚀及屏蔽影响现场实验研究,阐述了套管对阴极保护电流屏蔽作用的变化规律,以及影响因素的相互作用关系;验证了套管中安装牺牲阳极对于减缓屏蔽影响、提高保护效果的重要作用;根据理论研究及实验数据的分析,提出了套管腐蚀状况和屏蔽影响的判别和推荐的检测方法。