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基于北斗导航系统实现列车定位具有显著的性能及成本效益.为确保其符合特定应用需求,需要对定位完好性进行有效监测.立足于对常规接收机自主完好性监测方法进行有效辅助,本文提出一种应用于北斗列车定位的接收机自主完好性监测可用性预测方法.该方法利用北斗导航系统历书信息,结合列车运行计划实施完好性监测离线计算,预先对实际行车过程中可能的完好性状况进行估计,为列车在途定位完好性监测计算提供先验信息,确保定位结果满足应用需求.采用现场试验数据验证了本文所提出方法的预测能力,在基于卫星导航的列车控制等系统领域具有重要的应用价值.     

互通立交匝道运行速度预测模型

匝道是互通立交的重要组成部分,基于运行速度的匝道设计理念是目前公路及互通立交一种新的设计思路.本文以互通立交匝道小型车辆的运行速度为主要研究目标,通过分析互通立交匝道运行速度的影响因素,制订正交实验方案,运用车载高精度 GPS 设备,采集了北京市4 座互通式立交共14 条匝道车辆连续运行速度数据.根据其中 10 条匝道的数据,按照车辆在互通立交匝道上的运行速度特性将匝道分为三段：减速段、匀速段、加速段,构建互通立交匝道各个分段运行速度与影响因素之间的预测模型,并使用另外4 条匝道的实测数据对预测模型进行验证.结果表明,模型预测值的相对误差在 5%以内,验证了模型的正确性.     

轮轨噪声预测与控制方法综述

通过建立轮轨噪声预测模型,给出了车轮、钢轨辐射噪声声压级谱计算式。利用有关文献中的数据,对轮轨噪声进行了预测。从轮轨接触表面的不平顺、车轮、钢轨和声源等角度讨论了轮轨噪声的控制。     

土工合成材料长期强度保持率的化学动力学预测

土工合成材料长期强度保持率的预测是土工合成材料老化研究的一个核心问题,本文探求利用化学反应动力学基本理论和化学反应Arrhenius定理建立聚合物材料的化学反应速度与反应环境温度的关系模型,然后利用化学反应动力学模型和土工合成材料加速老化试验,对土工合成材料的长期强度保持率进行了科学的预测.     

公路隧道围岩稳定位移与突发失稳时间预报研究

从公路隧道开挖围岩变形位移历时曲线的特征出发,采用灰色Verhulst生物增长模型来预报其围岩变形的趋稳位移,用Verhulst反函数模型来预报围岩变形的突发失稳时间;实例研究结果表明,它们都具有较高的预报精度.     

低质量-阻尼因子圆柱体的涡激振动预报模型

本文考查了在均匀来流中作横向振荡的圆柱体与周围流体之间的能量转移,由此建立了基于受迫振荡实验数据的弹性支撑圆柱体在均匀流中的涡激振动响应预报模型.根据此模型,分析了低质量-阻尼因子圆柱体的涡激振动响应特性.就水中圆柱体涡激振动响应特性相关的几个关键性问题进行了深入的讨论,包括响应振幅的决定因素、附加质量对锁定范围及响应频率的影响.正确理解这些问题对于深水立管涡激振动响应的有效预报至关重要.     

黄土区公路沿线洞穴发育程度的层次预报模型

在黄土地区,黄土洞穴是造成公路损坏的主要原因。为研究黄土洞穴的发育规律,对陇西地区312国道沿线进行了重点调查和分析,阐述了黄土洞穴产生的主要影响因素,建立了该区黄土洞穴发育程度的分级标准,并利用层次分析原理建立了黄土洞穴发育程度的宏观地质条件预测模型,最后对预测结果进行了分析说明。     

Crash prediction model for two-lane rural highways in the Ashanti region of Ghana

Crash Prediction Models (CPMs) have been used elsewhere as a useful tool by road Engineers and Planners. There is however no study on the prediction of road traffic crashes on rural highways in Ghana. The main objective of the study was to develop a prediction model for road traffic crashes occurring on the rural sections of the highways in the Ashanti Region of Ghana. The model was developed for all injury crashes occurring on selected rural highways in the Region over the three (3) year period 2005–2007. Data was collected from 76 rural highway sections and each section varied between 0.8 km and 6.7 km. Data collected for each section comprised injury crash data, traffic flow and speed data, and roadway characteristics and road geometry data. The Generalised Linear Model (GLM) with Negative Binomial (NB) error structure was used to estimate the model parameters. Two types of models, the ‘core’ model which included key exposure variables only and the ‘full’ model which included a wider range of variables were developed. The results show that traffic flow, highway segment length, junction density, terrain type and presence of a village settlement within road segments were found to be statistically significant explanatory variables (p < 0.05) for crash involvement. Adding one junction to a 1 km section of road segment was found to increase injury crashes by 32.0% and sections which had a village settlement within them were found to increase injury crashes by 60.3% compared with segments with no settlements. The model explained 61.2% of the systematic variation in the data. Road and Traffic Engineers and Planners can apply the crash prediction model as a tool in safety improvement works and in the design of safer roads. It is recommended that to improve safety, highways should be designed to by-pass village settlements and that the number of junctions on a highway should be limited to carefully designed ones.     

瞬变电磁法对隧道含水不良地质体的探测规律

瞬变电磁法是一种对水体较为敏感的预报方法,为探索瞬变电磁法对探测隧道含水不良地质体的探测规律,通过现场大量瞬变电磁法探测实例,总结其对涌水通道、含水溶洞、含水裂隙的反应规律,以及后方低阻体对探测的干扰影响.结果表明,当探测前方存在含水通道时,视电阻率等值线会在其含水通道所在区域明显降低,且呈条带状分布,条带宽度与管道分...     

基于预防性养护的沥青混凝土路面使用性能预测模型研究

为了使路厩预防性养护措施选择与养护时机的确定更加合理.以沥青混凝土路面结构行为方程为基础建立了预防性养护前性能预测模型,并通过引入原路面有效厚度系数与养护措施特征系数建立了预防性养护后性能预测模型;进而简述了基于该模型的效益-费用分析法,应用该方法可以方便准确地确定最佳养护时机和养护措施.该文提出的基于预防性养护的沥青...