高速公路减速波事故的前兆特征与概率模型

为了研究高速公路减速波事故的前兆交通特征,选用了美国I880 高速公路的一条路段的交 通流数据和事故数据,从减速波事故的产生机理出发,通过跟驰行为的安全条件,推导出减速波事故前兆特征因子的交通状态表达方法。分析发现,高速公路上下游速度差和上游交通密度是减速波事故的两个前兆特征因子,上下游速度差和上游交通密度越大,高速公路减速波事故发生的 概率越高。基于此,描述了减速波事故发生概率与高速公路上下游速度差和上游交通密度的数学关系,并进一步建立了减速波事故概率模型,应用所采集的数据拟合了提出的事故概率模型。结 果显示,模型的拟合度为0.673,说明减速波事故发生概率与其前兆因子存在正相关关系,预测模型在一定程度上可以反映真实概率的大小。     

基于潜在类别模型的高铁旅客市场细分

对高速铁路旅客市场进行细分是应用收益管理理论的重要环节.基于京沪高铁的客票数据,选取年龄、性别、出行日期、出行距离、购票方式和提前购票时间6类外显变量作为分类指标,采用潜在类别模型进行高速铁路旅客市场的细分.首先将外显变量概率参数化后代入模型进行建模并利用Mplus软件进行模型求解,模型拟合的AIC和BIC等指标表明,当潜在类别为3类时模型具有较好的效果.然后根据模型参数估计结果对所有数据进行潜在聚类分析,分类正确率达到93%左右,表明分类结果合理,3种类别的旅客在提前购票时间、出行距离等方面具有明显的差异.潜在类别模型的引入可以为我国高速铁路收益管理理论研究和实践应用提供参考借鉴.     

船撞桥最小二乘支持向量机预测方法

为了提高桥梁与桥区通航船舶的安全性,提出了一种船撞桥概率智能预测方法.以桥墩跨径、水流速度、水流方向与桥墩连线法线方向夹角以及航道弯曲度为系统输入,以单航次船撞桥事故率为系统输出,应用最小二乘支持向量机进行了船撞桥概率估算.结合实际航道,选择了长江和黑龙江上12座桥梁的洪水期、中水期和枯水期3个时段的样本数据进行验算,并与神经网络船撞桥概率估算结果进行对比.对比结果表明:支持向量机方法能准确地预报船撞桥概率,具有全局最优解,并且收敛性和学习效率均优于神经网络.     

Determinants of the probability of default: the case of the internationally listed shipping corporations

In this study, we use a sample of 192 listed shipping companies and employ a logit model in order to investigate the determinants of the probability of default. We enhance our analysis by isolating not only the cases of company liquidations but also those cases where companies had to change their legal status due to warning liquidity signals. Our key findings are in line with prior research and moreover we depict a changing trend in the marginal effects of relevant variables, on the probability of default. We further show, through an empirical application, how the obtained results can be used in a managerial decision-making process and in a bank credit underwriting process in order to assess the creditworthiness of a shipping company.     

超宽“海上渔场”海运砰击数值模拟与分析

考虑到半潜船海上运输超宽悬垂货物过程中可能发生波浪砰击,提出利用波浪势流理论及超宽悬垂货物海运过程中砰击控制条件的数值模拟方法,以半潜式“海上渔场”载运为例,利用OCTOPUS软件建立计算模型,模拟海运过程中不同海况、航行吃水及航速情况下,船舶横摇、纵摇、垂荡、“海上渔场”砰击发生概率及砰击载荷的变化情况,“海上渔场”海运过程砰击数值模拟结果与工程实际数据十分吻合,验证了数值模拟方法的合理、可行。     

Optimizing coordinated transfer with probabilistic vehicle arrivals and passengers' walking time

Supporting efficient connections by synchronizing vehicle arrival time and passengers' walking time at a transfer hub may significantly improve service quality, stimulate demand, and increase productivity. However, vehicle travel times and walking times in urban settings often varies spatially and temporally due to a variety of factors. Nevertheless, the reservation of slack time and/or the justification of vehicle arrival time at the hub may substantially increase the success of transfer coordination. To this end, this paper develops a model that considers probabilistic vehicle arrivals and passengers walking speeds so that the slack time and the scheduled bus arrival time can be optimized by minimizing the total system cost. A case study is conducted in which the developed model is applied to optimize the coordination of multiple bus routes connecting at a transfer station in Xi'an, China. The relationship between decision variables and model parameters, including the mean and the standard deviation of walking time, is explored. It was found that the joint impact of probabilistic vehicle arrivals and passengers' walking time significantly affects the efficiency of coordinated transfer. The established methodology can essentially be applied to any distribution of bus arrival and passenger walking time. Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Three-dimensional conflict count models for unstructured and layered airspace designs

This paper presents analytical models that describe the safety of unstructured and layered en route airspace designs. Here, ‘unstructured airspace’ refers to airspace designs that offer operators complete freedom in path planning, whereas ‘layered airspace’ refers to airspace concepts that utilize heading-altitude rules to vertically separate cruising aircraft based on their travel directions. With a focus on the intrinsic safety provided by an airspace design, the models compute instantaneous conflict counts as a function of traffic demand and airspace design parameters, such as traffic separation requirements and the permitted heading range per flight level. While previous studies have focused primarily on conflicts between cruising aircraft, the models presented here also take into account conflicts involving climbing and descending traffic. Fast-time simulation experiments used to validate the modeling approach indicate that the models estimate instantaneous conflict counts with high accuracy for both airspace designs. The simulation results also show that climbing and descending traffic caused the majority of conflicts for layered airspaces with a narrow heading range per flight level, highlighting the importance of including all aircraft flight phases for a comprehensive safety analysis. Because such trends could be accurately predicted by the three-dimensional models derived here, these analytical models can be used as tools for airspace design applications as they provide a detailed understanding of the relationships between the parameters that influence the safety of unstructured and layered airspace designs.     

Risk-identification-based hybrid method for estimating the system reliability of existing jacket platforms under fire

This paper proposes a risk-identification-based hybrid method for estimating the system reliability of steel jacket structures under fire.The proposed method starts with risk identification;according to the results of hazard identification and Dow’s fire and explosion index(F&EI) methodology,the most dangerous hazard sources are determined.In term of each equipment layout in steel jacket structures,fire load is imposed and elasto-plastic analysis is performed.According to the deformed state of steel jacket structures,the weakest failure mode of steel jacket structures is identified.In order to know the effect on ultimate bearing capacity of the offshore structural system,a series of elasto-plastic analyses are performed in which single failure element contained in the weakest failure mode is removed from the whole offshore platform structural system.Finally,the failure function of the steel jacket structure is generated and the failure probability of the steel jacket structure system is estimated under fire by genetic algorithm via MATLAB program.     

改进的未确知理论方法及其在可靠性分析中的应用

针对样本数据跳跃度较大的情况,利用灰色系统理论中的级比平滑检验,对相邻数据级比因子进行了分析.通过引入Sturges拇指规则对样本数据进行分组,有效避免了传统可靠性数据处理中的盲目性和试探性.根据已有的有限数据,在MATLAB中作Smoothing Spline拟合,通过选取合适的邻域半径θ来控制最终的计算结果,提高了对变异数据的抗干扰能力,可以很好的解决数据稳定性问题.最后建立了装备部件经验可靠度曲线及概率密度函数,实例计算结果显示,与直接取算术平均值之间的误差为48.1％,体现了该方法在数据处理方面的优势,在工程实际中具有较强的领域通用性和有效性.     

Methods for probabilistic safety assessments of ships

 At the 62nd MSC conference (MSC62) in 1993, the UK proposed a new methodology for the consideration of safety regulations. This method is called formal safety assessment (FSA). FSA is an application of probabilistic safety assessment (PSA). Risk is used as an index of safety. One of the most important parts of FSA is to evaluate the risk to a ship when it is equipped with the safety measures recommended by the proposed safety regulations. The National Maritime Research Institute (NMRI, formerly the Ship Research Institute) has been developing a method which allows the risk to be obtained holistically by utilizing a scientific method. To obtain the risk, the probability and consequences of every accident must be evaluated. This paper examines the following points: (a) a holistic methodology for risk evaluation; (b) a method used in the process of estimating the probability of collision; (c) a method to reduce the numbers of fire escalation scenarios; (d) a trial risk evaluation of cabin fire. Received: January 10, 2002 / Accepted: April 18, 2002