小样本情况下的船舶溢油事故风险评价研究

船舶溢油风险评价是一项复杂的多因素问题,是船舶溢油应急管理的关键环节.作为智能搜索算法的代表理论,BP神经网络被认为是进行不确定风险评价的较好方法之一,然而船舶溢油事故属于小样本事件,统计数据往往难以满足BP神经网络要求的样本容量.针对这一困境,首先提出一种利用B样条最小二乘理论的数据拟合法,显著增加样本数.其次,根据船舶溢油特点建立了基于BP神经网络的船舶溢油风险评价模型.最后以上海港近年发生的10起溢油事故为实例,检验了模型的可行性.     

香港地铁的安全风险管理

概述地铁有限公司在香港建立和实践安全风险管理体系的经验、运营铁路安全管理组织架构、工程项目各阶段的安全风险管理规划、主要安全风险管理任务及分析方法等.     

桥梁建设项目总承包企业的风险及防范

针对我国桥梁建设项目总承包企业的风险进行研究。应用定性分析的方法,根据桥梁建设项目本身的特点以及总承包企业的业务范围,总结了桥梁建设项目中总承包企业的各种风险,最后提出了桥梁建设项目总承包企业的风险防范策略。     

船上实施听力保护的技术要求及应用

船舶噪声对船员的听力损伤是众所周知的,甚至发生部分船员的永久性听力损失。国际海事组织第91届海安会通过了新的《船上噪声等级规则》,围绕实施噪声规则,分析了听力保护的技术要求和正确选用听力保护器的技术依据,探讨了佩戴听力保护器对语言交流和感受听觉信号造成的影响。强调必须开展听力损伤的风险评估,并对识别听力损伤的特殊风险因素提出了建议。     

基于船舶领域和MMG的最晚施舵点/CRI研究

提出了一种基于MMG和船舶领域的LSP计算模型,以及改进的空间碰撞危险度（space collision risk index,SCRI）/时间碰撞危险度（time collision risk index,TCRI）模型,并进行了计算机仿真.结果表明：水动力模型精度可满足研究与实践要求;基于二分法的LSP模型能快速、可靠收敛;LSP和SCRI/TCRI模型更符合海员通常做法和避碰规则的公认理解.     

Examining the influence of firm performance on business risk-taking and the mediation effect of scale of operations in the container terminal industry

Container shipping and its related service sectors help accelerate globalization of the world economy. This industry has been experiencing rapid growth, prompting container terminal operators to increase their handling capacity in response. Providing container terminal services requires substantial capital investment in physical assets such as cargo handling facilities and information systems. On the other hand, operating container terminals is a long-term investment that typically spans several business cycles. Hence prudent asset management using appropriate tools is critical for container terminal operators to sustain their businesses. Generally, due to risk-adverseness, investors are unwilling to take more risk in their investment unless they can reap a higher return. Contrary to this argument, this study finds no direct influence of better firm performance as a proxy of higher return on business risk-taking by container terminal operators. Instead, scale of operations is positively associated with business risk-taking, suggesting that container terminal operators with a larger scale of operations are willing to take more business risk.     

A new composite decision support framework for strategic and sustainable transport appraisals

This paper concerns the development of a new decision support framework for the appraisal of transport infrastructure projects. In such appraisals there will often be a need for including both conventional transport impacts as well as criteria of a more strategic and/or sustainable character. The proposed framework is based on the use of cost-benefit analysis featuring feasibility risk assessment in combination with multi-criteria decision analysis and is supported by the concept of decision conferencing. The framework is applied for a transport related case study dealing with the complex decision problem of determining the most attractive alternative for a new fixed link between Denmark and Sweden – the so-called HH-connection. Applying the framework to the case study made it possible to address the decision problem from an economic, a strategic, and a sustainable point of view simultaneously. The outcome of the case study demonstrates the decision making framework as a valuable decision support system (DSS), and it is concluded that appraisals of transport projects can be effectively supported by the use of the DSS. Finally, perspectives of the future modelling work are given.     

重庆水下立交隧道施工期风险分析

隧道及地下工程建设面临着大而多的风险,尤其是越江隧道的建设更为突出。因此隧道工程项目风险管理也越来越受到工程建设领域的关注。以规划中的重庆两江隧道为依托,采用风险分析方法中常用的专家打分法,对该工程采用钻爆法可能遇到的风险因素实施风险分析与评估,并给出了相应的处置措施。希望能对该工程以及类似工程的实施提供一些参考。     

高速公路项目投资风险量化分析

结合高速公路项目投资的特点和一般规律，运用量化分析方法对高速公路项目风险及其敏感性进行估测。项目投资风险量化分析的方法包括盈亏平衡分析法、敏感性分析法等，研究了高速公路项目量化分析的数据因素和量化分析过程，利用上述方法对案例项目进行了实际分析，并据以判断投资项目的风险大小并做出决策。     

存在车辆干扰的车道线识别

为避免道路上行驶的其它车辆对车道线识别的干扰,提出了一种结合车辆识别的车道线识别方法。融合雷达数据,车辆识别模块首先在图像中识别出车辆占据的区域;对于每一个车道线识别模块挑出的车道线候选点进行判断,去除处于车辆区域的车道线点;如果有效车道线点数目不足,则利用卡尔曼滤波的跟踪结果,确定符合最小风险函数的车道线位置。经过多种工况下的试验验证,该方法能够稳定地对车道线进行识别,准确地提取车道线参数,并且算法对车辆干扰有良好的抵抗能力。