Cost overruns and demand shortfalls – Deception or selection?

A number of highly cited papers by Flyvbjerg and associates have shown that ex ante infrastructure appraisals tend to be overly optimistic. Ex post evaluations indicate a bias where investment costs are higher and benefits lower on average than predicted ex ante. These authors argue that the bias must be attributed to intentional misrepresentation by project developers. This paper shows that the bias may arise simply as a selection bias, without there being any bias at all in predictions ex ante, and that such a bias is bound to arise whenever ex ante predictions are related to the decisions whether to implement projects. Using a database of projects we present examples indicating that the selection bias may be substantial. The examples also indicate that benefit–cost ratios remain a useful selection criterion even when cost and benefits are highly uncertain, gainsaying the argument that such uncertainties render cost-benefit analyses useless.     

基于环境协调理念的公路设计研究

在公路工程正式动工之前,设计单位要根据所收集的数据信息进行方案设计,为后期的施工作业提供合理的指导策略。针对近年来我国公路建设重心向山区转移的特点,以具体的工程案例为指导,采用环境协调理念对山区公路设计的新策略加以分析,为公路设计提供新的思路。     

竖直式垃圾压实器压头形状优选

针对竖直式垃圾压实器的设计,阐明了反映垃圾压缩率的压头形状优化目标以及基于加权平均法的综合评价方案,构建了加权平均法的分析模型并确定各指标的加权系数.然后提出了圆形、方形、推铲形和楔形四种压头形式,分别建立对应的垃圾压缩有限元模型,运用加权评分的方法,选择出最优的压头形状,为压实器的结构设计提供了依据.     

人机作业分析在轮对生产线中的应用

分析了某企业轮对生产线存在的作业人员与生产设备利用率低的问题,运用基础工业工程中的作业测定的相关方法对车轮生产中的钻辐板孔工序的工时数据进行了分析和整理,运用作业分析法对钻辐板孔工序的人机作业进行了优化与改进,从而得到更为合理的作业方法.     

Development and evaluation of a statistically reliable traffic counting program

This paper reviews the existing procedures to compute the seasonal factors, growth factors, and the number of automatic traffic recorder stations (ATRs) for developing a statistically reliable traffic counting program. The review is based on, (i) theoretical evaluation of the procedures, (ii) analysis of the results obtained from applying these procedures to extensive real life data, and (iii) experience of past researchers with these methods. The paper primarily deals with existing statistical procedures for determining seasonal factors, since it is believed that these factors play the most important role in estimating Annual Average Daily Traffic (AADTs) from short counts. The procedure of cluster analysis (which is most commonly used to determine seasonal factors) is critically reviewed. The shortcomings of this method motivated the development of a different statistical procedure, based on regression analysis, to determine seasonal factors. It is shown that this newly developed method gives better results than the cluster analysis techniques. Furthermore, separate sections are dedicated to a thorough analysis of determination of number of ATR stations and computation of growth factors.     

佛开高速公路北江大桥改造前后力学性能分析

佛开高速公路北江大桥采用主桥拆除重建、引桥顶升加固的改造方案。由于引桥连续工字梁存在结构性病害，顶升对梁体的影响需进行评估。同时，顶升误差将导致梁体产生次应力，可能导致梁体出现新的损伤，此外，顶升过程中连续工字梁的结构体系多次发生转换，多次体系转换后梁体的受力性能是否满足要求需进行分析。对北江大桥引桥连续工字梁的典型联跨改造前后的受力性能进行分析，得到其受力性能的变化规律，为桥梁改造施工提供理论依据。     

碗扣满堂支架法在盖梁施工中的应用

跨铁路公路立交桥高墩盖梁模板支撑体系的稳固与否直接关系到铁路运营安全,碗扣式脚手架作为高墩盖梁模板支撑体系以其拆卸迅速简便、承载能力大、安全可靠等特点得到了广泛的认可,而脚手架立杆的稳定性是脚手架支撑体系稳定的关键。以某跨铁路的公路桥高墩盖梁模板支撑体系为例,对碗扣式支撑体系的稳定性进行了分析验算,确定了盖梁模板支护方案并应用于漾泉大道跨白荫支线改线立交桥工程,应用效果良好。     

铁路电务专业系统绩效考核机制建设的探索与实践

从分析传统考核机制存在的问题入手,探索建立一套以月度专项检查考核、季度综合管理评价考核、半年度管理诊断评价考核、年度安全评估为主线的绩效考核机制;通过与传统的电务绩效考核机制进行对比,阐述新时期电务绩效考核机制建设的主要特点,并对其实施效果和体会进行了分析。     

拉压杆模型在预应力连续梁桥局部分析中的应用

在预应力深梁拉压杆模型的基础上,根据结构局部分析原理,研究提出了预应力连续梁局部等效转化成预应力深梁的局部拉压杆模型分析方法。利用此方法对某预应力连续梁桥局部梁段建立拉压杆模型,验算配筋和强度。结果表明:利用文中提出的方法建立拉压杆模型用于预应力连续梁桥局部分析是合理有效的。     

高桥墩桩基础的优化设计及因素分析

在高桥墩桩基屈曲能量法分析的基础上,提出兼顾结构稳定、强度和经济性的优化模型,并应用优化算法中非线性序列二次规划法,进行优化设计探讨,同时给出优化设计算法流程图,编制了相应的优化计算程序;为了解桥墩高度、轴向荷载、地基比例系数和混凝土弹性模量对于高桥墩桩基屈曲的影响,结合优化设计模型进行了因素分析,探讨了参数变量对目标函数最优值的影响规律和程度,比较结果说明,在进行高桥墩桩基的屈曲受力分析时,高桥墩的大变形影响不容忽视;而一般在工程设计中,可考虑将桩周土体和混凝土弹性模量的增强作用作为设计的安全储备。