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城市出租车交通分布预测模型 总被引:4,自引:0,他引:4
现有交通需求预测方法以居民出行分析为基础,预测得出的出租车交通分布量实质上是载客出租车的交通分布量,因此其预测值比实际值偏小.基于出租车的运行规律,提出了出租车出行概念,将系统中出租车总出行量分解为载客出租车出行量和空驶出租车出行量,并运用Logit概率选择模型,建立了载客出租车出行量与空驶出租车出行量之间的关系,从而得出了总体出租车的交通分布预测方法.该方法既可以模拟城市现状的出租车交通分布状况,也可以对规划年出租车的交通分布进行预测,避免了传统分析方法对空驶出租车交通量的疏漏. 相似文献
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Antti Talvitie 《Transportation》2006,33(1):83-110
The paper describes an approach to the vexing problem of transport planning and policy. It deals jointly with three questions, which in today's practice are addressed separately: How are hypotheses about transport problems and alternatives to their solution developed? How can a good plan or policy be identified? What is the process of implementing a transport plan or policy? In doing this the paper has the ambitious objective of proposing a new model and process for transport planning and policy. It is applicable in developed and developing countries and is not restricted to the transport sector. The paper builds on, and is a reinterpretation of two cornerstone transport planning and decision-making models – the CATS (Chicago Area Transportation Study) Planning and Design Model and Braybrooke and Lindblom's Disjointed Incrementalism. It advances a technique of experiential incrementalism (termed polisanalysis) to develop and implement plans and policies. It proposes that problems should be diagnosed by observation and continuous data collection; that their continuous analysis, finding the “cure”, and implementation take place through the method of experiential incrementalism. In this method interventions are grounded on the theories of neoinstitutional economics and psychoanalysis and derived using contact function, explained in the paper, which renders the method scientific replicability. Experiential incrementalism can employ a wider array of options in planning and policy than is presently thought possible. Like other scientific methods, its application requires rigorous training. 相似文献
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Peter Nijkamp Aura Reggiani Simona Bolis 《Transportation Research Part D: Transport and Environment》1997,2(4):233-244
Environmental issues have received a prominent place in transport policies of most European countries. The coordination of such policies however, is fraught with many difficulties. The increasing freight flows after the European integration are a source of concern, but have not yet led to straightforward and effective environmental strategies.The paper focuses on the Trans Alpine freight transport systems in the light of the future integration of single national transport systems into the European transport network. The environmental, social and institutional peculiarities of this ‘region’ have favoured—in the past—the development of strong nationally-oriented policies, partly in contrast with the goals promoted by the European Union. The present analysis aims to highlight opportunities, and limits inherent, in the implementation of various infrastructure projects oriented towards a drastic change of the Alpine transport systems structure. The Alpine countries, viz. Austria and Switzerland, play a central role in the promotion of environmental benign modes of transport of goods, with a clear focus on rail. The route choice and modal split of freight flows in Europe are taking place simultaneously. In this paper the results of European freight flow models (based on logit analysis and neural networks) will be presented. An important exercise is then to assess the consequences of various types of eco-taxes on road transport in Europe. In this context, several policy scenarios will be dealt with. 相似文献
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船舶气囊下水工艺实践与发展前景 总被引:3,自引:1,他引:2
本文叙述船舶气囊下水新工艺在我国内河中、小型船厂近年来的实践,提出和总结气囊下水工艺有关计算方法和注意事项。鉴于气囊下水新工艺有其独特的优越性,并随着气囊制造质量和下水工艺不断完善提高,气囊下水新工艺必会有较好的发展前景,下水船舶重量期望可提高到2000t。 相似文献