充分发挥道路客运在综合运输体系中的比较优势

以石太客运专线的开通为例,分析了高速铁路的开通对道路运输业造成的冲击,阐述了道路运输相对于铁路运输的优势,并从充分发挥道路运输业比较优势的角度提出了切实可行的建议。     

The relevance of international transport costs on food prices: Endogenous and exogenous effects

The paper addresses the problem of transport costs and their influence on food prices for South American imports. While transport does not seem to be in the focus of existing analyses, its impact on food prices might be underestimated and even closely linked to the development of commonly mentioned drivers of food prices. Since transport price formation is a function of demand and supply, drivers of food prices are also expected to impact on transport prices. The authors argue that a number of relevant factors that drive transport costs - and in consequence food prices - can be influenced by policy makers. Based on empirical analysis, the authors explain the functioning of the determinants of transport costs in the segment of international shipping, trying to describe their exogenous and endogenous components. These results are discussed in reference to policy development in the region.     

深圳市长途公路客运市场的现状思考

要想从根本上解决目前深圳市公路客运市场无序的问题,政府就必须下狠心、动真格的,对目前的公路客运市场动一次“大手术”;要从体制改革入手解决现有运营企业的多头管理、政企不分、站运不分等弊端,同时,加大运政监管力度,杜绝公路客运市场违规现象的发生。     

基于多目标模糊决策的公路客运枢纽评价方法

在公路客运枢纽方案评价过程中,涉及大量不确定因素和模糊因素。为协调这些因素,并降低人为因素的影响,采用二元对比重要性排序采确定各因素的权重,将备选方案与理想方案的几何偏差作为选优依据,为科学合理地的选择公路客运枢纽提供一种定量的方法,最后给出实例说明方法的实用性。     

高速公路动态交通流Elman神经网络模型

为了提高高速公路交通流建模的精度,分析了离散的高速公路动态交通流数学模型,基于Elman网络原理,建立了回归神经网络交通流模型。回归神经网络的输入层、上下文层、隐含层和输出层的节点数目分别选为8、30、30和2,采用Levenberg-Marquardt算法对回归神经网络进行训练,并对一条5路段的高速公路进行仿真。结果表明:回归神经网络平均相对误差为8.683 7×10-5,最大相对误差为4.237 1×10-4,与BP神经网络和RBF神经网络相比较,Elman回归神经网络能更好地逼近交通流数学模型,真实地描述交通流基本特性,能准确地建立动态交通流模型,适应交通状况的变化。     

成都铁路枢纽客运系统的分析与研究

以成都铁路枢纽客运系统为研究对象,作者讨论了客运专线引入枢纽对客运系统的影响,城市形态及其发展规划与铁路客运站选址的相互关系,铁路与城市交通网络体系中其它运输方式的衔接方式、换乘关系及协调发展;提出了未来三十年成都铁路客运系统车站的分工布局、客货线路在枢纽内的走向及疏解原则,同时提出近期新成都站的建设方案以及市内各种交通运输系统与之协调共谋发展的措施。     

Effects of the ‘Belt and Road’ initiative on the wine import logistics of China

China’s Belt and Road (BR) initiative is expected to facilitate international trade between the countries involved. In this study, we review the special requirements of wine logistics and the market growth potential of wine consumption in China. A model minimizing generalized logistical costs is developed and applied to wine imports in China, so that the best candidate cities in which to locate transport gateways and distribution centers can be identified. Our analysis suggests that the most preferred gateways are Shanghai, Tianjin, Guangzhou, and Hong Kong, which all have similar delivery costs. In comparison, Beijing and Chongqing have much higher delivery costs, mainly because they do not have good access to marine transport and/or efficient domestic distribution networks. For long-distance intercontinental transport of large volumes of wine, marine shipping remains the only viable delivery mode. However, wine distribution within China extensively uses air, road, and water transport. Therefore, cities with excellent multi-modal transport services are better positioned to become wine logistics gateways. Our study also highlights the importance of value-added services and good government support, which are important factors that influence distribution costs and quality.     

冰载荷下的船舶运动建模

随着极地航道的开辟以及极地海洋能源开发的需要,海冰与船体的相互作用以及极地船舶航行与作业安全越来越受到关注。本文主要针对破冰过程的几个典型阶段,对冰载荷对船舶的作用力进行了分析与计算,并考察了破冰船在不同的海冰密集度、冰厚以及船舶不同航速情况下的不同影响。     

基于粗糙-模糊软计算的船板线加热成形加工参数预报方法

提出一种基于粗糙-模糊软计算的建模方法,构造一种基于贴近方向修正的高精度模糊推理算法,通过有限元分析(FEA)建立板材线加热成形工艺信息系统,根据粗糙集软计算获取线加热成形的工艺规律,运用模糊推理实现加工参数的快速准确预报。粗糙-模糊建模适用于线加热成形过程的静态或动态模型的构建,为实现该工艺的智能建模与控制提供一种新的技术手段。     

沿海港口煤炭专业化运输系统适应性探讨

结合全国煤炭生产消费及调运情况,分析北方煤炭下水港布局、后方铁路通道规划建设及煤炭下水趋势对专业化煤炭下水港未来发展的影响,研究南方煤炭接卸港码头布局、外贸进口煤炭和煤炭中转基地建设及接卸港发展趋势对接卸港布局及建设的影响,对全国沿海港口煤炭专业化运输系统分区域、分结构的适应性进行探讨,并提出问题及建议。