盐城地区铁路建设规划探讨

按照长三角地区城际铁路网规划,盐城市铁路将有连盐铁路、徐宿淮盐铁路、盐海铁路引入,地区铁路路网结构发生了较大变化,应对地区铁路总图规划作出修改.通过充分分析盐城市经济现状和发展趋势,对盐城的客货运量进行全面调查,在充分研究地方及过境客货运需求趋势的基础上对盐城市铁路进行研究规划.根据盐城地区引入铁路的特点,对线网格局进行分析,研究盐城市铁路客运系统布局.     

Air transport and economic growth: a review of the impact mechanism and causal relationships

ABSTRACT

The impacts of air transport on the economy arise both directly, via activity in the aviation sector; and indirectly, via increased spending and wider economic benefits associated with improved access to resources, markets, technology and economic mass. Economic activity, in turn, supports and generates demand for air transport. Despite its potential importance, the reciprocal nature of the causal relationship between air transport and economic performance has remained somewhat understudied. This paper provides a synthesis review of the channels the aviation sector interacts with regional economy. The review focuses on quantitative studies that contribute to the state-of-the-art understandings of the causality. We find that the reciprocal causal relationship is more likely to prevail in less developed economies. For more developed economies, only one direction of the causality is recognised, which runs from air transport to economic growth. Especially substantial is the effect of airline enplanement on service-related employment. The reverse direction of the relationship is, however, not as significant as believed in a causal sense within the developed world. Therefore, cautions need to be taken when applying income elasticities (such as the elasticity of air passenger demand with respect to GDP) in air travel demand forecasting, which implicitly assumes that economic growth causally leads to air traffic increment. Based on the fundamental links between air transport and economic growth, some typical imperfections and inefficiencies in aviation markets are discussed and promising avenues for future research are proposed.     

线性需求下铁路客运差别定价模型研究

为提高席位资源利用率,研究了线性需求下我国铁路客运差别定价策略的优化模型。以收益最大化为目标,基于最优化理论和完全价格歧视策略,确定旅客群体最优细分数目以及每个旅客群体的最优票价,得出在客运淡季,铁路旅客最优细分数目为3~5个,各旅客群的最优票价由铁路客运市场细分数目决定。应用该模型为某城际高铁进行差别定价,试验结果表明,该模型可达到调节客流、增加收益的目的。     

布草传输控制系统设计

大型洗涤车间洗涤设备众多,洗脱机、烫平机、折叠机(展布机)、堆码机等等,种类繁多,工序复杂。本文设计的洗涤集成传输控制系统采用工业PLC控制器,通过传送装置将所有设备组合起来,实现洗涤车间布草的自动化洗涤、折叠、运转、堆放,减少洗涤车间人工工作量,提高生产效率。     

Transport network criticality metrics: a comparative analysis and a guideline for selection

ABSTRACT

Transport network criticality analysis aims at ranking transport infrastructure elements based on their contribution to the performance of the overall infrastructure network. Despite the wide variety of transport network criticality metrics, little guidance is available on selecting metrics that are fit for the specific purpose of a study. To address this gap, this study reviews, evaluates and compares seventeen criticality metrics. First, we conceptually evaluate these metrics in terms of the functionality of the transport system that the metrics try to represent (either maintaining connectivity, reducing travel cost, or improving accessibility), the underlying ethical principles (either utilitarianism or egalitarianism), and the spatial aggregation considered by the metrics (either network-wide or localised). Next, we empirically compare the metrics by calculating them for eight transport networks. We define the empirical similarity between two metrics as the degree to which they yield similar rankings of infrastructure elements. Pairs of metrics that have high empirical similarity highlight the same set of transport infrastructure elements as critical. We find that empirical similarity is partly dependent on the network’s topology. We also observe that metrics that are conceptually similar do not necessarily have high empirical similarity. Based on the insights from the conceptual and empirical comparison, we propose a five-step guideline for transport authorities and analysts to identify the set of criticality metrics to use which best aligns with the nature of their policy questions.     

复杂水域船舶进出港全过程仿真建模方法

本文对比分析了国内外应用各种建模方法在船舶通航研究中的优缺点,提出了一种基于多智能体信息交互的港口运营系统仿真建模方法,旨在拟实反映复杂水域船舶进出港的全过程。结合多智能体系统仿真理论、离散事件仿真理论与多元数据统计分析方法,实现了对复杂水域船舶进出港全年全过程的精细化仿真,并系统总结了可通过建模解决的关键研究问题。     

历奇教育在铁路客运教学中的探索

针对客运专业的教学现状,在专业教学中引入了历奇教育。经过教学实践,历奇教育加深了学员间的交流,转变了学员的观念,给学员提供了展示自我的舞台,给教师提供了受教育的机会,教学效果良好。     

A new logit‐artificial neural network ensemble for mode choice modeling: a case study for border transport

Logit model is one of the statistical techniques commonly used for mode choice modeling, while artificial neural network (ANN) is a very popular type of artificial intelligence technique used for mode choice modeling. Ensemble learning has evolved to be very effective approach to enhance the performance for many applications through integration of different models. In spite of this advantage, the use of ANN‐based ensembles in mode choice modeling is under explored. The focus of this study is to investigate the use of aforementioned techniques for different number of transportation modes and predictor variables. This study proposes a logit‐ANN ensemble for mode choice modeling and investigates its efficiency in different situations. Travel between Khobar‐Dammam metropolitan area of Saudi Arabia and Kingdom of Bahrain is selected for mode choice modeling. The travel on this route can be performed mainly by air travel or private vehicle through King Fahd causeway. The results show that the proposed ensemble gives consistently better accuracies than single models for multinomial choice problems irrespective of number of input variables. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Identifying preferences for public transport investments under a constrained budget

As urban areas face increasing demands for new transport infrastructure to promote a sustainable future with an increasing reality of constrained government budgets, the debate on whether we should focus on rail or bus-based investments continues unabated in many jurisdictions. Associated with the debate is an emotional (or ideological) bias by communities in favour of one mode, especially rail, which carries much sway at the political level as if there is no budget constraint. This paper presents a stated choice experiment to investigate this context as two unlabelled options described by 20 potential drivers of community preferences for improved public transport, where each choice scenario is conditioned on an estimated construction cost and a total annual transport infrastructure budget for the relevant geographical jurisdiction. This is followed by a labelling of each alternative to reveal whether the option is bus rapid transit (BRT) or light rail (LRT) and to establish whether this additional information influences preference revision. Data is collected in all eight capital cities of Australia in mid 2014. Mixed logit models with heteroscedastic conditioning in terms of the cost of the project infrastructure and whether the alternative is labelled BRT or LRT, provide new evidence on the nature and extent of community modal bias in a budget-constrained choice setting. The conclusions are twofold. On the one hand, if a fully compensatory choice rule is assumed (as is common in all previous modal comparison studies), LRT is predominantly preferred over BRT despite budgetary constraints, similarities in quality of service attributes and the opportunity to choose a greater network coverage for a given construction cost. However, when we allow for attribute non-attendance (a semi-compensatory choice rule), the modal bias is no longer a significant driver of preferences.