Using GPS-data to determine optimum electric vehicle ranges: A Michigan case study

Fuel-switching personal transportation from gasoline to electricity offers many advantages, including lower noise, zero local air pollution, and petroleum-independence. But alleviations of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions are more nuanced, due to many factors, including the car’s battery range. We use GPS-based trip data to determine use type-specific, GHG-optimized ranges. The dataset comprises 412 cars and 384,869 individual trips in Ann Arbor, Michigan, USA. We use previously developed algorithms to determine driver types, such as using the car to commute or not. Calibrating an existing life cycle GHG model to a forecast, low-carbon grid for Ann Arbor, we find that the optimum range varies not only with the drive train architecture (plugin-hybrid versus battery-only) and charging technology (fast versus slow) but also with the driver type. Across the 108 scenarios we investigated, the range that yields lowest GHG varies from 65 km (55+ year old drivers, ultrafast charging, plugin-hybrid) to 158 km (16–34 year old drivers, overnight charging, battery-only). The optimum GHG reduction that electric cars offer – here conservatively measured versus gasoline-only hybrid cars – is fairly stable, between 29% (16–34 year old drivers, overnight charging, battery-only) and 46% (commuters, ultrafast charging, plugin-hybrid). The electrification of total distances is between 66% and 86%. However, if cars do not have the optimum range, these metrics drop substantially. We conclude that matching the range to drivers’ typical trip distances, charging technology, and drivetrain is a crucial pre-requisite for electric vehicles to achieve their highest potential to reduce GHG emissions in personal transportation.     

基于 VAR 模型的区域交通运输需求与GDP 的关系实证分析

为研究区域交通运输需求和经济发展之间的关系,运用协整理论进行实证分析,选取1985—2013年重庆货运周转量、客运周转量、GDP数据,建立交通运输需求与经济之间的VAR模型,运用脉冲响应和方差分解对系统进行动态分析。结果表明：交通运输需求和GDP之间存在长期协整关系,GDP带动交通运输业的发展,交通运输业对GDP的贡献率较小;但随着交通运输业的不断发展,在逐渐加大对区域经济的推动作用。最后根据实证分析的结论,对重庆市交通运输业的发展提出相关建议。     

各种运输方式协调发展模式探讨

基于江苏省交通运输现状,通过计算各种运输方式的外部广义费用,结合江苏省交通运输的实际情况,提出优先发展公路运输、铁路运输和公路、铁路运输兼顾发展的3种运输模式。根据外部广义费用计算结果,分析比较3种运输模式优劣势,最后基于公路运输为主,适度提高铁路运输的公、铁、水3种交通运输方式协调发展的综合运输模式的建议。     

公交信号优先控制策略研究综述

公交信号优先是提高公交系统运行速度和可靠性的重要手段。回顾公交信号优先控制40多年的研究成果,以总结该领域的总体研究脉络。对被动优先、主动优先、实时优先以及与不同设施相结合的信号优先控制策略进行了综述分析。研究表明,公交信号优先控制策略的发展历程是：控制的实时性逐步提高,优化要素的考虑逐渐全面,控制对象日益扩大,控制策略逐步系统化、适用性逐步增强。最后指出,公交信号优先控制多目标平衡、控制策略的协调与网络优先控制,以及控制与调度策略的协调优化是后续研究的重点,而公交车辆行程时间预测以及如何应对预测偏差带来的影响仍然是信号优先控制中的关键问题。     

基于差异时效的服务评价模型

针对KNN(k-nearest neighbor)方法在服务评价过程中存在的时效量化、评价窗口宽度以及反馈控制等问题,提出了具有差异时效的服务评价模型(WSEM-VTU).在WSEM-VTU中,采用系统动力学方法研究复杂时效量化方法,以获得差异时效量化结果;基于复杂时效量化方法得到的结果,自适应计算评价窗口宽度;根据评价统计特征,设计恶意评价反馈控制策略.通过实验,将WSEM-VTU与现有评价模型WSEM-E及WSEM-KNN进行比较,结果表明:WSEM-VTU的平均误差为0.877,比WSEM-E和WSEM-KNN分别降低了1.020和0.135;引入反馈控制策略后,WSEM-VTU出现恶意评价的情况平均降低67%.     

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概要地介绍了“十五”国家科技攻关计划项目“中国智能交通系统发展战略研究”的主要内容和结论，该研究站在全局的高度，围绕国家综合交通的发展目标，深入地分析了我国交通运输的需求和必须解决的重大问题，客观评价了国际和国内智能交通的发展水平以及我国的差距，提出未来10～15年我国智能交通发展的指导思想、战略目标、各阶段的重点战略目标及保障措施和建议等。课题的研究成果将为编制我国智能交通的发展规划提供科学依据。     

希斯罗机场公共交通集疏运网络研究

分析了英国伦敦希斯罗机场的公共交通集疏运网络中的轨道交通线路、城市公交线路以及长途汽车网络,提出了大型枢纽机场建立公共交通集疏运网络的过程中可能会遭遇的问题以及处理的手段。以此为借鉴,对我国大型枢纽机场集疏运网络的规划与建设提出了建议。     

淤泥质海岸波致液化及航道骤淤问题初步研究

研究波浪与淤泥海床相互作用导致的海床液化、体积冲刷和高浓度近底悬沙的层移输运问题。采用de Wit提出的液化判别条件及计算方法,结合连云港近岸波浪和淤泥力学特征,计算不同来波条件下淤泥质海床的液化深度;进一步考虑浑水中含沙量对流速的折减影响,计算液化层运移速度分布。计算结果表明,大浪条件下,淤泥质海床可能有较大的液化深度,但层移厚度不大。由于层移含沙量较高,在近底水流驱动下仍能形成较大的输沙率和一定规模的大风天航道骤淤。有关研究成果为海床稳定性分析和输沙计算提供了新的思路和方法。     

燃气蒸汽式弹射内弹道研究

燃气-蒸汽式弹射方式以其结构简单、温度适中、压力输出平稳等优点,被越来越广泛地应用到水下运载器的发射系统中,深入研究燃气-蒸汽式弹射装置的内流场对弹射装置的设计、改进具有重要意义.本文通过采用3种不同仿真模型对燃气-蒸汽式弹射内弹道进行计算,结果表明:对流场进行仿真计算时应同时引入汽化模型和组分输运模型,其仿真结果与实际情况更为相符.汽化模型对流场温度的影响比对压力和速度的影响更为明显.研究成果可为燃气-蒸汽式弹射装置的设计与改进提供理论支撑.     

Environmental impacts of public transport systems using real-time control method

Public Transport (PT) systems rely more and more on online information extracted from both operator’s intelligent equipment and user’s smartphone applications. This allows for a better fit between supply and demand of the multimodal PT system, especially through the use of PT real-time control actions/tactics. In doing so there is also an opportunity to consider environmental-related issues to approach energy saving and reduced pollution. This study investigates and analyses the benefits of using real-time PT operational tactics in reducing the undesirable environmental impacts. A tactic-based control (TBC) optimization model is used to minimize total passenger travel time and maximize direct transfers (without waiting). The model consists of a control policy built upon a combination of three tactics: holding, skip-stops, and boarding limit. The environmental-related measure is the global warming potential (GWP) using the life cycle assessment technique. The methodology developed is applied to a real life case study in Auckland, New Zealand. Results show that TBC could reduce the GWP by means of reduction of total passenger travel times and vehicle travel cycle time. That is, the TBC model results in a 5.6% reduction in total GWP per day compared with an existing no-tactic scenario. This study supports the use of real-time control actions to maintain a reliable PT service, reducing greenhouse gas emissions and subsequently moving towards greener PT systems.