世界银行贷款项目“卫津路拓宽工程”的经济效益计算

本市以天津城市主干道卫津路拓宽改造工程为例，论述城市道路经济效益计算方法。按全天高峰小时、非高峰小时，分别计算机动车和非机动车的运营成本、时间价值及事故费用，采用有、无项目对比法．进行经济效益计算。经济效益中以车辆行程时间延误与路口时间延误的节约作为主要效益。     

Does habitual car use not lead to more resistance to change of travel mode?

An experiment examined the effects of an intervention (combination of information and a free public transport ticket) in a changed decision context (moving to a new residence) on travel mode choice by car users. If past frequency of car use has resulted in an automatic response to goal-related cues, one should expect resistant to change of travel mode. However, the results failed to show this. Neither past behavior or a direct habit measure predicted future travel behavior. Instead, the intervention influenced attitude, subjective norm, and perceived behavioral control, and consistent with Ajzen's theory of planned behavior, these were the main causes of the change of travel mode.     

Modeling children’s school travel mode and parental escort decisions

Understanding of the activity-travel patterns of children is becoming increasingly important to various policy makers. Further, there is also a growing recognition that intra-household interactions need to be explicitly accommodated in travel models for realistic forecasts and policy evaluation. In the light of these issues, this paper contributes towards an overall understanding of the school-travel behavior of children and the related interdependencies among the travel patterns of parents and children. An econometric model is formulated to simultaneously determine the choice of mode and the escorting person for children’s travel to and from school. The 2000 San Francisco Bay Area Travel Survey (BATS) data are used in the model estimation process. Empirical results indicate that the characteristics of child like age, gender, and ethnicity, and employment and work flexibility characteristics of the parents have strong impacts on the mode choice decisions. In addition, the impacts of some of these attributes on the choice of mode to school are different from the corresponding impacts on the choice of mode from school. The distance between home and school is found to strongly and negatively impact the choice of walking to and from school, with the impact being stronger for walking to school. Several land-use and built-environment variables were explored, but were found not to be statistically significant predictors.

路段平均行程时间估计方法

为了有效利用线圈检测数据,精确估计路段平均行程时间,提出了一种路段平均行程时间估计方法。将路段平均行程时间分为平均行驶时间、平均排队时间和平均通过路口时间三部分。考虑线圈埋设的特点,通过估计平均行驶速度得到平均行驶时间。用分段时齐Poisson过程描述车辆驶入路段过程和驶离过程,用Markov排队模型描述车辆排队过程,用生灭过程描述排队车辆数,得到车辆排队模型,计算了路段有、无初始排队的平均排队时间。基于选取与路口相关的饱和流率和平均车长,计算了平均通过路口时间。计算结果表明:平均行程时间估计值与实测值的误差小于12%,说明路段平均行程时间估计方法可行。     

Travel Behavior Analysis of the Females in Beijing

In urban life, compared with the same age group of male contrast, the statistical indicators of female travel behavior show significant differences. According to the sample data of Beijing 2005 travel survey, the paper analyzes the female travel behavior in the travel rate, travel consumption, trip purpose, and travel mode. Furthermore, the paper introduces the concept of the trip chain, to construct a female morning commuter trip chain choice behavior model with noncollection theories and methods, to analyze 10 factors that influence a female individual's choice of a trip chain from the source. Subsequently, model parameters are estimated, to calculate the incidents that can help to quantitatively understand the impact of each factor on a female's choice of the trip chain. The results show that the travel rate of elderly women is far lower than that of elderly men. Female travel proportion in shopping and social activities is obviously higher than that of male travelers, and factors related to the structure of families create important constraints in their average travel time consumption. The main travel mode of the female is walking, which is far more than that of a male. Age, whether they hold licenses, monthly income, and transport ownership are dominant factors for the female's choice of the trip chain.     

Development of analytical procedure for selection of control measures to reduce congestions at various freeway bottlenecks

Variable speed limit (VSL) and ramp metering (RM) affect freeway traffic operations in different ways and, accordingly, result in different effects on system travel time. The primary objective of this study is to propose an analytical procedure to help determine which control measure should be selected given different freeway bottlenecks and traffic conditions. The bottlenecks considered included an isolated merge bottleneck, a merge bottleneck with a closely spaced upstream off-ramp, and a diverge bottleneck with a closely spaced upstream on-ramp. Two RM and a VSL control strategies were considered, including the ALINEA, ALINEA/Q and feedback based VSL. The maximum achievable improvements in system efficiency by various control measures were calculated and the results were tested using modified cell transmission models. A coordinated control strategy that combined ALINEA/Q and VSL control was also proposed. The effects of VSL and RM control on system travel time at different freeway bottleneck areas were compared to identify the applicable conditions of different control measures. The analytical procedure was proposed for the selection of control measures at different bottlenecks and the ex-ante estimation of control effects were also discussed.     

Urban travel time reliability at different traffic conditions

The decision making of travelers for route choice and departure time choice depends on the expected travel time and its reliability. A common understanding of reliability is that it is related to several statistical properties of the travel time distribution, especially to the standard deviation of the travel time and also to the skewness. For an important corridor in Changsha (P.R. China) the travel time reliability has been evaluated and a linear model is proposed for the relationship between travel time, standard deviation, skewness, and some other traffic characteristics. Statistical analysis is done for both simulation data from a delay distribution model and for real life data from automated number plate recognition (ANPR) cameras. ANPR data give unbiased travel time data, which is more representative than probe vehicles. The relationship between the mean travel time and its standard deviation is verified with an analytical model for travel time distributions as well as with the ANPR travel times. Average travel time and the standard deviation are linearly correlated for single links as well as corridors. Other influence factors are related to skewness and travel time standard deviations, such as vehicle density and degree of saturation. Skewness appears to be less well to explain from traffic characteristics than the standard deviation is.     

基于手机信令数据的游客识别与出行轨迹匹配方法

为统计旅游交通的客运量，分析公路交通运输需求，优化运输组织，合理构建“快进慢游”综合交通旅游网络，研究提出基于手机信令数据的游客识别与出行轨迹匹配方法。通过划定景区边界，设置停留时间阈值，识别手机用户的游客身份；同时，借助地图工具批量计算信令发生位置间的出行路线与行程时间，匹配实际公路网。实例分析结果表明，手机信令数据能呈现手机用户的出行轨迹，且信令数据的位置轨迹与公路线位走向结合密切。在人们越来越依赖地图导航软件规划出行路径的背景下，利用该方法能更准确地识别景区游客并估计游客往来景区的出行路径。     

对日产三菱叉车行走系统国产件替代的尝试

针对进口叉车行走系统易发生故障的问题,分析了原因,提出了用国产件替代的方案,介绍了其加工方法,效果很理想。