The effect of attitudes toward cars and public transportation on behavioral intention in commuting mode choice—A comparison across six Asian countries

This study investigated the contribution of psychological factors in explaining the choice of transportation mode in six Asian countries. Data were collected from 1118 respondents in Japan, Thailand, China, Vietnam, Indonesia, and the Philippines. The dependent variable was the intention to use one of three modes for work travel after getting a job: car, public transit, or other modes. The explanatory variables were three attitude factors taken from a previous study, including: 1/symbolic affective, reflecting affective motives of travel mode use; 2/instrumental, referring to functional attributes of travel modes; and 3/social orderliness which represents for environmental friendliness, safety, altruism, quietness et cetera. Several logit model estimates were made using the samples from the six countries separately and together. We obtained three main findings. First, attitude variables about the car were all significant determinants for the entire sample from Asian countries. Second, the social orderliness aspect of public transit was a common concern of respondents from developing countries in selecting this mode for work trips. Third, in countries in which the intent to use a car was not very high, attitude factors about the car were found to be significant determinants of the behavioral intention to commute by car but were less significant in countries in which the desire to use a car was high.     

基于非参数回归的快速路行程速度短期预测算法

基于北京市快速路上的检测器所采集的历史数据，经过数据筛选，剔除判别，小波滤噪平稳处理，聚类分析等过程，建立了交通状态演变系列的历史样本数据库。基于所构建的历史数据库，通过数值试验，确定了状态向量、距离匹配原则，K近邻值等参量，构建了一种基于K近邻的非参数回归短时交通预测模型，实现了对路段行程速度的短时预测。最后，利用随机选取的历史数据系列对预测模型的精度进行了检验。结果表明，预测算法的精度可以达到90％以上，可以很好地满足ITS应用系统对于交通预测数据的精度要求。     

An analysis of the determinants of children’s weekend physical activity participation

This paper examines the out-of-home, weekend, time-use patterns of children aged 5–17 years, with a specific emphasis on their physical activity participation. The impact of several types of factors, including individual and household demographics, neighborhood demographics, built environment characteristics, and activity day variables, on physical activity participation is analyzed using a joint nested multiple discrete–continuous extreme value-binary choice model. The sample for analysis is drawn from the 2000 San Francisco Bay Area Travel Survey. The model developed in the paper can be used to assess the impacts of changing demographics and built environment characteristics on children’s physical activity levels.     

一类动态交通分配中的输出流模型及其数值解法

已知路段输入流,基于Greenshields提出的速度-密度关系模型以及Jayakrishnan et.al提出的改进的Greenshields 速度-密度关系模型所描述的路段交通流特征,分别给出了关于路段输出流的常微分方程模型.针对无法得到该模型的解析解,利用龙格-库塔-芬尔格算法给出初始条件下的数值解.在已知输出流的条件下,每个时刻的路段交通流的行程时间也相应给出.仿真结果表明,针对两类不同速度-密度关系所建立的输出流模型,所得到每个时刻的输出流基本相似,但路段行程时间存在明显差异.与交通流调查数据比较,基于改进的Greenshields速度-密度关系的输出流模型的行程时间更接近真实情况.     

基于实时交通信息的行程时间估算及路径选择分析

路段行程时间的估计和预测是诱导系统的关键技术之一。由于路网参数不断变化,路段行程时间的估计必须满足实时性的要求。以城市交通控制系统的基本设施为基础,根据我国城市交通目前的发展状况,分析了影响路段行程时间的各种因素和路段行程时间的组成。利用设置在路段上的车辆自动检测装置搜集到的实时交通流信息,并结合随机服务系统的相关理论建立了城市道路路段行程时间的动态计算模型,提出了一种具有真实最短路径意义的实时动态最短路径选择的方法。     

出行时间成本的测算方法及其影响因素分析

介绍了出行时间成本理论的假定,基于机会成本原理对出行时间成本进行了测算,针对其基本特性对其影响因素进行了深入分析,并据此在工资法的基础上提出了出行时间成本的计算模型。     

信号控制对动态路线选择的影响研究

以动态路线选择模型为基础的先进的出行者信息系统（ＡＴＩＳ）的实施必然对城市交通控制系统产生影响，同时交通控制系统的控制方案对路线诱导信息“运行时间”的估计也发生作用，影响用户对最优路线的造选择。对两系统的相互关系进行了分析，并建立了两系统相互关系模型最后给出了实际案例分析。     

A conceptual and methdological framework for the generation of activity-travel patterns

This paper develops a conceptual framework for the generation of activity and travel patterns in the context of more general structures and presents an integrated model system as a step toward development of an improved travel demand forecasting model system. We propose a two-stage structure to model activity and travel behavior. The first stage, the stop generation and stop/auto allocation models, consists of the choices for the number of household maintenance stops and the allocation of stops and autos to household members. The second stage, the tour formation model, includes the choices for the number of tours and the assignment of stops to tours for each individual, conditional on the choices in the first stage. Empirical results demonstrate that individual and household socio-demographics are important factors affecting the first stage choices, the generation of maintenance stops and the allocation of stops and autos among household members, and the second stage choices, the number of tours and the assignment of stops to tours. This revised version was published online in June 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

Conformity: How VMT-speed distributions can affect mobile emission inventories

Transportation conformity is a US regulatory process that requires that transportation modeling be integrated with air quality modeling. Consequently, every change to either modeling process is undertaken with great scrutiny by the regional governments, who have to use the models for demonstrating conformity. This paper explores the "trip versus link debate," which stems from the fact that the standard travel demand models used by most metropolitan planning organizations are primarily link oriented, while the air quality models have been primarily trip oriented. Using the Sacramento region we examine the effects on mobile source emissions inventories when speed-VMT distributions are constructed using the trip and link-based philosophies. The results of our study indicate that trip-based VMT-speed distributions produce consistently lower emissions estimates than the link-based distributions. We use the results to assert that deciding between a trip-based or link-based conformity modeling process involves more than the technical difficulty of changesto the models or the potential political ramifications, it involves assessing which method will provide the most accurate estimates of regional motor vehicle emissions. We also examine ways to think about constructing mobile source emission inventories.