A parameterized consideration set model for airport choice: an application to the San Francisco Bay Area

Airport choice is an important air travel-related decision in multiple airport regions. This paper proposes the use of a probabilistic choice set multinomial logit (PCMNL) model for airport choice that generalizes the multinomial logit model used in all earlier airport choice studies. The paper discusses the properties of the PCMNL model, and applies it to examine airport choice of business travelers residing in the San Francisco Bay Area. Substantive policy implications of the results are discussed. Overall, the results indicate that it is important to analyze the choice (consideration) set formation of travelers. Failure to recognize consideration effects of air travelers can lead to biased model parameters, misleading evaluation of the effects of policy action, and a diminished data fit.     

A practical assessment of stated preferences methods

Stated preferences data in the form of rankings, ratings and choices were collected in Santiago and discrete choice models estimated with them. The models were compared in terms of accuracy v/s the cost of obtaining the information and models. All methods produced reasonable but different models and fairly close subjective values of time. In terms of production costs the ranking method was a clear looser although the experimental design was slightly biased against it. Finally, the use of computerised interviews is highly recommended particularly for dealing with low income people.     

Bayesian estimation of multinomial probit models of work trip choice

In this paper, we estimate a multinomial probit model of work trip mode choice in Seoul, Korea, using the Bayesian approach with Gibbs sampling. This method constructs a Markov chain Gibbs sampler that can be used to draw directly from the exact posterior distribution and perform finite sample likelihood inference. We estimate direct and cross-elasticities with respect to travel cost and the value of time. Our results show that travel demands are more sensitive to travel time than travel cost. The cross-elasticity results show that the bus has a greater substitute relation to the subway than the auto (and vice versa) and that an increase in the cost of an auto will increase the demand for bus transport more so than that of the subway.     

Urban form,travel time,and cost relationships with tour complexity and mode choice

The primary purpose of this study was to investigate how relative associations between travel time, costs, and land use patterns where people live and work impact modal choice and trip chaining patterns in the Central Puget Sound (Seattle) region. By using a tour-based modeling framework and highly detailed land use and travel data, this study attempts to add detail on the specific land use changes necessary to address different types of travel, and to develop a comparative framework by which the relative impact of travel time and urban form changes can be assessed. A discrete choice modeling framework adjusted for demographic factors and assessed the relative effect of travel time, costs, and urban form on mode choice and trip chaining characteristics for the three tour types. The tour based modeling approach increased the ability to understand the relative contribution of urban form, time, and costs in explaining mode choice and tour complexity for home and work related travel. Urban form at residential and employment locations, and travel time and cost were significant predictors of travel choice. Travel time was the strongest predictor of mode choice while urban form the strongest predictor of the number of stops within a tour. Results show that reductions in highway travel time are associated with less transit use and walking. Land use patterns where respondents work predicted mode choice for mid day and journey to work travel.

Modeling children’s school travel mode and parental escort decisions

Understanding of the activity-travel patterns of children is becoming increasingly important to various policy makers. Further, there is also a growing recognition that intra-household interactions need to be explicitly accommodated in travel models for realistic forecasts and policy evaluation. In the light of these issues, this paper contributes towards an overall understanding of the school-travel behavior of children and the related interdependencies among the travel patterns of parents and children. An econometric model is formulated to simultaneously determine the choice of mode and the escorting person for children’s travel to and from school. The 2000 San Francisco Bay Area Travel Survey (BATS) data are used in the model estimation process. Empirical results indicate that the characteristics of child like age, gender, and ethnicity, and employment and work flexibility characteristics of the parents have strong impacts on the mode choice decisions. In addition, the impacts of some of these attributes on the choice of mode to school are different from the corresponding impacts on the choice of mode from school. The distance between home and school is found to strongly and negatively impact the choice of walking to and from school, with the impact being stronger for walking to school. Several land-use and built-environment variables were explored, but were found not to be statistically significant predictors.

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建立出行者基本属性与交通方式选择的关系模型,研究影响和引导城市交通方式结构的有效措施。采用非集计模型建立出行者个人属性、家庭属性和出行属性与个体出行方式选择的函数关系,从城市统计资料中获取城市居民个人属性、家庭属性和出行属性数据,应用非集计模型来推算和预测交通方式结构。居民出行交通方式选择与个人属性、家庭属性和出行属性之间有较稳定的关系,其随着时间的推移变化甚微。非集计模型所推算的交通方式结构较为精确,用于交通方式结构的预测是可行的。所建立的模型亦用于研究影响交通方式选择的关键因素。非集计模型可用于交通方式结构的调整和优化,通过对可控影响因素的引导和调整,达到优化交通方式结构的目的。     

二阶随机需求条件下公交网络的服务可靠性研究

引入服务可靠性这一概念,以乘客出行成本和车行运营成本最小为目标建立随机需求下的 公交网络模型,并提出固定需求的服务方案模型和改进的二阶随机方案模型。该模型体现了乘客 公交出行的选择策略并反映了公交网络中不确定需求和服务可靠性的相互联系。在分析公交出行 网络中的服务设计,包括常规服务和特别服务的基础上,运用二阶下降法通过规定不确定的随机 变量（服务可靠性参数） 来求解二阶随机方案：首先在一阶段减少混合整数规划的数量以节省计 算时间,随后在二阶段中模拟出一个线性规划,以便有效地求解二阶随机方案。最后,通过实例 模型验证了该方案的可行性。     

二级增压系统压气机效率的优化策略研究

对配置在1台重型车用柴油机上的二级增压系统进行了性能研究。结果表明:放气阀开启的二级增压系统存在进气能力不足、压气机效率低的问题;关闭二级增压放气阀后,在中、低转速低负荷工况仅采用高压级增压器,而其余工况借助高压级涡轮旁通阀实现进气压力可调,增压系统压气机效率均可超过60%,且最大进气压力可达334kPa;针对不同工况采用不同增压形式,通过控制涡轮旁通阀开度使二级增压系统进气压力及压比分配得到有效调节,可以改善压气机效率及燃油经济性,为二级增压系统与重型柴油机的性能匹配提供技术参考。     

关于网络性产品的兼容性和价格动态选择问题的研究

网络性产品的兼容性和价格是网络性产品的生产企业经营决策的重要方面。本文从需求出发，考虑产品的网络效应、兼容性以及价格，推导出需求函数。考虑网络性产品市场的实际情况，建立了企业动态选择产品兼容性和价格模型的3种形式，并用逆向归纳法进行计算，而且对第3种形式进行实例分析。     

网络电话技术及应用

网络电话技术完全不同于传统的通信技术,是新的、纯粹的网络技术的应用,与IP电话也有本质的区别.概述当前的网络电话技术及相关的技术协议、标准,介绍3种网络电话应用软件特点及使用方法,并对网络电话的未来发展进行展望.