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61.
考虑土体参数间的互相关性和空间自相关性,通过Cholesky分解技术生成二维互相关对数正态随机场。基于ABAQUS平台利用Python进行二次开发实现高效随机有限元分析,结合蒙特卡罗法对分层边坡进行可靠度分析和参数敏感性分析。分析结果表明:在所研究随机场参数的变化范围内,黏聚力和内摩擦角间的互相关性、变异系数、水平和竖向波动范围的改变都会使边坡的稳定性状态产生变化。可靠度随相关系数的增加而减小,随黏聚力变异系数或内摩擦角变异系数的增大而减小,随水平或竖向波动范围的增大而减小。安全系数均值随相关系数的增加而减小,随黏聚力变异系数或内摩擦角变异系数的增大而减小,随水平或竖向波动范围的增大而增大。相比于安全系数均值,可靠度对相关系数、变异系数和波动范围的变化更加敏感;相比黏聚力变异系数和横向波动范围,内摩擦角变异系数和竖向波动范围对边坡的可靠度影响更为显著。  相似文献   
62.
Spontaneousnocturnalepisodesofalkaliniza-tionduringtheearlymorningareseenin7o%~8o%ofnormalsubjectsandfunctionaldispepsia(FD)patientswhoundergoprolongedambulatoryintragastricpHmonitoring"."-Thedurationsofalkalineshiftsarefromhalfanhourtoseveralhours,thepHelevatesto7andeven8.However,controversyexistsovertheiretiology.Someinves-tigatorshavepostulatedbutnotprovedthatthereasonisadecreaseofvagaIactivitywithasubse-quentdecreaseinacidsecretiontl'3].Heartratevariability(HRV)representsanoninvasivean…  相似文献   
63.
目的 探讨自发性夜间胃碱化的形成是否与十二指肠胃反流 (DGR)及迷走神经功能有关。方法  2 0例功能性消化不良 (FD)患者采用胃内 pH和胆红素同步监测法 ,比较夜间自发性碱化与胆汁反流的关系 ;另外 2 0例无心血管疾病的FD患者采用胃内 pH和心电Holter同步监测 ,进行心率变异性 (HRV)时域分析 ,以SDNN、rMSSD、PNN5 0为指标 ,观察夜间自发性碱化与迷走神经功能的关系。结果  2 0例FD患者中出现夜间自发性碱化者 1 2例 ,其中 8例 (占66.7% )同时有胆红素吸光值升高 ;2 0例无心血管疾病的FD患者中 1 3例有夜间自发性碱化 ,7例无自发性碱化 ,二者比较SDNN、rMSSD均在正常范围 ,差异无显著性 (P >0 .0 5 ) ;2 4h胃 pH与PNN5 0对照观察表明 ,夜间时段与白天相比PNN5 0明显升高 ,有自发性碱波组与无自发性碱化组二者相比 ,PNN5 0无显著差别。结论 自发性夜间胃碱化的形成与DGR有关 ,并不是迷走神经张力降低导致胃酸分泌减少所致。  相似文献   
64.
目的采用脑电双频谱指数(BIS)和心率变异指数(HRVI)联合监测腹腔镜胆囊切除术患者的麻醉深度,观察手术患者中枢神经系统的抑制程度及植物神经系统对外科手术等伤害刺激的反应性,更加合理地评价腹腔镜胆囊切除术患者的麻醉深度。方法选择ASAⅠ~Ⅱ级,全麻下择期腹腔镜胆囊切除手术患者80例,依麻醉深度检测手段的不同随机分为4组:对照组(组Ⅰ)、BIS监测组(组Ⅱ)、HRVI监测组(组Ⅲ)、BIS和HRVI联合监测组(组Ⅳ),维持BIS值40~50,HRVI值30~40。结果麻醉期间组Ⅳ丙泊酚的使用量显著低于组Ⅰ、组Ⅱ和组Ⅲ;组Ⅲ、组Ⅳ瑞芬太尼的使用量显著高于组Ⅰ和组Ⅱ;组Ⅳ苏醒时间显著短于组Ⅰ、组Ⅱ和组Ⅲ;拔管后患者烦躁例数组Ⅲ、组Ⅳ显著低于组Ⅰ和组Ⅱ。4组患者术后均未发生术中知晓。结论采用BIS和HRVI联合监测腹腔镜胆囊切除手术患者的麻醉深度,可以较为准确地反映手术患者中枢神经系统的抑制程度及植物神经系统对外科手术等伤害刺激的反应性,可更加合理地评价麻醉深度。  相似文献   
65.
针对自动删除均值检测器存在的排序时间过长的问题,先提出了一种修正自动删除均值检测器.计算机仿真显示,与自动删除均值检测器相比,该检测器的性能或与其相同,或稍有改善,但排序时间却减少了一半.推导了该检测器的平均虚警概率、平均检测概率的解析表达式.比较了该检测器与基于自动删除算法的最小选择恒虚警检测器的性能,分析了这2种检测器各自适用的场合.为了得到稳定的检测性能,提出了一种广义变化性指标恒虚警检测器,该检测器根据变化性指标可以自动在修正自动删除均值检测器和基于自动删除算法的最小选择恒虚警检测器之间转换.最后通过计算机仿真验证了该检测器的有效性.  相似文献   
66.
In late summer 2002 and 2003, exceptionally warm inflow events of saline water were observed in the Baltic. These warm saline waters were embedded in the halocline of the Bornholm Basin and caused a strong anomaly of the seasonal temperature cycle. The temperature in October 2002 was the highest ever observed in the halocline of the Bornholm Basin.Although the oxygen content of the inflowing water was only about 1.5 ml l− 1 at the Darss Sill, it caused a moderate ventilation of the halocline in the Bornholm Basin. On the way through the Arkona Basin, the entrainment of ambient water increased the oxygen content of the inflowing saline water masses.Warm summer inflows were rare events in the last 50 years, but their frequency has increased since 1990. This is likely caused by climate change. The analysis of a 50-year time series of hydrographic parameters reveals significant changes of the thermal regime around the year 1988. The winter surface and intermediate water temperatures of the Bornholm Basin increased by about 1 °C. Also, the duration of warm water in the surface layer was prolonged after 1988. A high correlation between the minimum intermediate winter water temperatures and the NAO winter index was found.Since temperature is a key parameter for many biological processes various responses of the ecosystem to the change in hydrographic conditions could be expected. Possible biological implications of the warm inflow events for the ecosystem are discussed.  相似文献   
67.
根据围海造陆工程吹填场地大量勘察资料,通过采用土层剖面随机场理论与曲线极限法相关距离计算方法,考虑相关距离与土层厚度对土性参数空间变异性的影响,把土性参数的点变异性与空间变异性联系起来,对吹填淤泥与原状淤泥组成的双层软土土性参数的变异性进行了分析。结果表明:吹填淤泥与原状淤泥相关距离的区间估计分别为0.45~0.53 m、0.65~0.71 m,为勘察工作钻孔取样竖向间距选取提供参考;随机场理论计算出的土性参数的空间变异系数比点变异系数小得多,在理论上更合理;吹填淤泥土性参数的点变异性、空间变异性均比原状淤泥大,空间变异性对岩土工程可靠性设计土性参数准确选取的影响更为显著,实际工程中更应考虑土性参数的空间变异性。  相似文献   
68.
    
This contribution addresses the need for a simple model for managers to employ when planning strategies for the management of touristic beaches under sea level rise. A methodological framework was developed and tested in two Aegean archipelago islands (Lesvos and Rhodes, Greece). The scheme can represent the status of touristic island beaches, based on easily obtained variables/indicators and projections of beach erosion/retreat under different scenarios of mean sea level rise (MSLR) and extreme events. Information on beach geomorphological characteristics, environmental setting, water quality, management, and services (such as those used in the “Blue Flag” classification) was collated/collected and beach erosion/retreat due to CV & C was estimated through suitable ensembles of cross-shore (1-D) morphodynamic models. A Strength-Weaknesses-Opportunities-Threats (SWOT) framework was employed to assist in the selection of indicators and multicriteria analysis used to optimize indicator weights and rank beaches according to their sustainability under sea level rise. Implementation of the framework at the two islands has shown that: the majority of Lesvos and Rhodes beaches (82% of a total of 217 beaches and 58% of a total of 97 beaches, respectively) can be classified as beaches with no, or minimal, human interference, suggesting that under environmentally sound coastal management further touristic development might be afforded; there could be very significant effects of the sea level rise on the carrying and buffering capacities of the most developed (“Blue Flag”) beaches, with some expected even under conservative projections to be completely eroded by 2100, unless technical adaptation measures are taken; and using the proposed framework, touristic beaches can be rapidly ranked in terms of their resilience to sea level rise and their development potential, allowing prioritization of effective management responses.  相似文献   
69.
    
In many countries, decision-making on proposals for national or regional infrastructure projects in passenger and freight transport includes carrying out a cost–benefit analysis for these projects. Reductions in travel times are usually a key benefit. However, if a project also reduces the variability of travel time, travellers, freight operators and shippers will enjoy additional benefits, the ‘reliability benefits’. Until now, these benefits are usually not included in the cost–benefit analysis. To include reliability of travel or transport time in the cost–benefit analysis of infrastructure projects not only monetary values of reliability, but also reliability forecasting models are needed. As a result of an extensive feasibility study carried out for the German Federal Ministry of Transport, Building and Urban Development this paper aims to provide a literature overview and outcomes of an expert panel on how best to calculate and monetise reliability benefits, synthesised into recommendations for implementing travel time reliability into existing transport models in the short, medium, and long term. The paper focuses on road transport, which has also been the topic for most of the available literature on modelling and valuing transport time reliability.  相似文献   
70.
    
This paper aims to assess the uncertainty on the extreme mooring loads of floating system considering short-term variability. Two environmental contour approaches based on the inverse First and Second Order Reliability Methods are employed to identify critical sea states that may give rise to extreme loads. The uncertainty related to the construction of environmental contours is addressed including significant differences due to marginal distribution fitting, parameter estimation methods and joint models. Three measured datasets are analysed using a known conditional joint distribution and proposed mixed copula model. 3-h time domain numerical simulation for each sea state is conducted and the characteristic extreme responses of mooring lines subjected to design loads are assessed. The uncertainties due to various statistical models including the average conditional exceedance rate method as well as global maxima, peak-over-threshold method combined with Gumbel distribution, Generalized Extreme Value distribution, Generalized Pareto distribution and 3-parameter Weibull distribution are investigated and quantified. It is observed that marginal distributions, joint models and parameters estimation methods have apparent effect on design loads estimation, and the extreme tensions of the semi-submersible platform shows significant difference using various probabilistic models. The results indicate that those epistemic uncertainties should be account for in the reliability analysis or safety factor calibration for mooring systems.  相似文献   
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