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91.
Shenzhen Port (SZP), once a negligible local port, has risen dramatically to a world-leading container port and an “equal” player with Hong Kong Port (HKP). Will this market share reallocation continue, or will equilibrium be eventually realized for HKP to prosper continuously? We examine the relationship between these two ports to answer this question. We propose a new transformation method to describe the growth of container cargo transport demand, define the quantitative measures of the competition relationship and port competitiveness, and present a rigorous analytical framework with econometric tests and models to understand the true relationship between HKP and SZP. Direct empirical tests suggest that SZP complements HKP; however, the two ports exhibit strong competition when the effect of demand growth is excluded. Considering transshipment separately, we find that the impact of SZP on HKP is negative in transshipment but complementary in direct shipment. We may conclude that HKP does not affect SZP, whereas SZP has competitive power over HKP. These results are consistent with the findings of some previous theoretical studies. 相似文献
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93.
基于非集计与弹性联合模型的交通需求分析 总被引:2,自引:0,他引:2
随着我国交通事业的蓬勃发展,人们对交通方式的需求正在不断发生变化。基于科学研究的交叉性和外延性,将不同研究领域已经基本成熟的模型,即微观经济学中的费用效益弹性理论模型和交通方式分布中的非集计模型(Logit模型)有机地结合并融为一体,得到一种联合模型,使其更容易将数据定量化、具体化。通过这个联合模型来分析交通需求并将与交通需求相关的因素进行对比,得出交通因素发生变化对交通需求者和供给者的影响。 相似文献
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95.
该文以我国城市道路交通管理规划的现状为出发点,提出了城市道路交通管理规划是一项重要课题,阐述了交通管理规划的目的、基本内容及三个层次,论述了交通需求预测的分析方法及模型。最后结合兰州市道路交通管理规划的框架与实施情况,分析其主要成果及产生的社会经济效益。 相似文献
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97.
通过分析机群智能化施工对压路机智能化的要求,开发出了可实现无级变频变幅的激振器。在此基础上设计了能自动检测与控制自身技术状态、运行参数、作业质量,并可与机群智能化施工控制中心及其他相关机械进行无线通讯联系的智能压路机。 相似文献
98.
根据地震环境下不同恢复阶段的社会经济活动及交通系统特性,对传统交通预测四阶段法———出行产生、出行分布、方式划分、交通分配的宏观模型进行了修正,讨论了不同模型的参数变化趋势,建议了参数的调整原则及方法,进而以修正四阶段法为基础进行震后交通需求预测。该方法简便易行,预测得到道路通行能力、流量、负荷度和平均运行时间等多个指标,为城市交通系统防灾规划提供决策依据。最后,结合我国东南沿海某城市的工程实践,有针对性的进行了应用和验证。 相似文献
99.
We analyse mode choice behaviour for suburban trips in the Grand Canary island using mixed revealed preference (RP)/stated
preference (SP) information. The SP choice experiment allowed for interactions among the main policy variables: travel cost,
travel time and frequency, and also to test the influence of latent variables such as comfort. It also led to discuss additional
requirements on the size and sign of the estimated model parameters, to assess model quality when interactions are present.
The RP survey produced data on actual trip behaviour and was used to adapt the SP choice experiment. During the specification
searches we detected the presence of income effect and were able to derive willingness-to-pay measures, such as the subjective
value of time, which varied among individuals. We also studied the systematic heterogeneity in individual tastes through the
specification of models allowing for interactions between level-of-service and socio-economic variables. We concluded examining
the sensitivity of travellers’ behaviour to various policy scenarios. In particular, it seems that contrary to political opinion,
in a crowded island policies penalising the use of the private car seem to have a far greater impact in terms of bus patronage
than policies implying direct improvements to the public transport service. 相似文献
100.
Rail access to airports is becoming increasingly important for both train operators and the airports themselves. This paper reports analysis of inter-urban rail demand to and from Manchester and Stansted Airports and the sensitivity of this market segment to growth in air traffic and the cost and service quality of rail services. The estimated demand parameters vary in an expected manner between outward and inward air travellers as well as between airport users and general rail travellers. These parameters can be entered into the demand forecasting framework widely used in the rail industry in Great Britain to provide an appropriate means of forecasting for this otherwise neglected market segment. The novel features of this research, at least in the British context, are that it provides the first detailed analysis of aggregate rail flows to and from airports, it has disaggregated the traditional generalised time measure of rail service quality in order to estimate separate elasticities to journey time, service headway and interchange, and it has successfully explored departures from the conventional constant elasticity position. 相似文献