道路交通事故经济损失灰色预测模型

阐述了我国交通事故造成经济损失的状况,引入灰色预测模型,对利用此模型预测交通事故经济损失的可行性进行了分析。基于历史数据,对未来几年的事故经济损失状况进行预测,并对模型精度进行检验。     

The relationship among highway geometrics,traffic-related elements and motor-vehicle accident frequencies

This research provides a demonstration of a statistical model of accident frequency that can eventually be used as part of a proactive program to allocate safety-related highway improvement funds. Negative binomial regressions of annual accident frequency on sections of principal arterials in Washington State were estimated using data from two years (1992 and 1993). In all, 31306 observations were used in model estimation (annual accident frequencies on specific sections of highway). Our estimation results isolated the effects of various highway geometric and traffic characteristics on annual accident frequency. Subsequent elasticity computations identified the relative importance of the variables included in our specifications. The findings show that the negative binomial regression used in this paper is a powerful predictive tool and one that should be increasingly applied in future accident frequency studies.     

车头间距分布规律的研究

以我国混合车流作为高等级公路交通流的基本构成,分析了混合车流车型跟驶序列组合的概率;采用计算机模拟手段,得到了车头时距阈值与速度关系、不同跟车序列最小车头间距、车头间距与随机度关系和车头间距与流量关系;并通过随机度参数将微观和宏观参数整合为一体。     

Maritime accident risk estimation for sea lanes based on a dynamic Bayesian network

ABSTRACT

The safety of maritime transportation has become increasingly important with the development of international economics and trade. This paper introduces a dynamic Bayesian network (DBN) model to facilitate the estimation of the dynamic emergency risk in sea lanes. The DBN model is a novel model that can efficiently represent and infer complex stochastic knowledge. To construct this model, available data, which were collected from emergency investigation reports by the International Maritime Organization (IMO), are employed in conjunction with expert knowledge to develop and demonstrate a BN; an evidence theory approach is applied to calculate the prior probability with the help of historical data; the conditional probability is learned by the expectation maximization (EM) algorithm; and the transition probability is obtained by a Markov model. Finally, the Viterbi algorithm is adopted to estimate emergency risk. The emergencies that occurred in the Indian Ocean from 2009 to 2018 were used as a case study for risk estimation. Sensitivity analysis was conducted to identify significant influential factors. The results show that the sea lane risk in the Indian Ocean fluctuates within a small range, presenting an overall downward trend over time. These findings provide a reference for maritime stakeholders to make proper decisions.     

水力式升船机卷筒制动器意外上闸风险及应对措施*

正常运行过程中同步系统卷筒制动器意外上闸是水力式升船机最严重的事故工况之一。结合景洪水力式升船机设计参数,分析了该事故工况下升船机存在的安全风险,提出了相应的应对措施和控制指标,探讨风险预测的理论计算方法,并通过原型观测试验检验理论计算方法与应对措施的有效性和可靠性。     

船舶工业轻微事故的主成分分析

主成分分析法是利用降维的思想,在损失很少信息的前提下,把多个指标转化为几个相互独立的综合指标的多元统计方法。将主成分分析用于船舶工业的轻微事故统计中,对事故类型和发生月份进行深入分析,得出事故发生的潜在规律,对制定相应的事故预防策略具有一定的指导作用。     

典型交通设施对道路交通事故致因影响分析

在分析黑龙江省2006～2010年间1万多起道路交通事故数据的基础上,选取道路交通控制设施、路侧防护设施、道路物理隔离设施、照明设施等四类典型道路交通设施作为研究对象,分析不同敏感条件下（如不同道路类型、不同天气条件、不同事故形态、不同路表条件等）发生的交通事故形态与特征,据此分析道路交通设施对交通事故发生的影响情况,这将有利于道路交通设施功能的有效发挥,道路交通安全度的提高,也有利于道路交通设施的管理与维护。     

浅析战时车勤人员心理特征及管控措施

针对战时车勤人员不良心理特征的表现,分析了战时车勤人员不良心理特征产生的原因,提出了增强战时车勤人员心理素质的管控措施,以实现战时运输任务的圆满完成,提高运输保障能力.     

库区公路交通事故成因分析及对策研究

针对库区公路交通事故的发展趋势,在调研分析浙江省千岛湖区域的公路交通事故特征的基础上,分析库区公路交通事故的成因及存在的问题,提出改善库区等级公路交通安全的建议与对策.为进一步研究改善库区公路交通安全状况的具体措施,提供了一些借鉴.     

广西高速公路木冲隧道交通安全性分析

长大隧道是高速公路的控制路段,其运营安全对高速公路畅通和安全有重要影响。文章通过研究木冲隧道交通事故分布特征,分析了长大隧道发生交通事故的原因,提出了改善木冲隧道交通安全状况的工程措施和管理建议,其对提高木冲隧道运营安全性具有指导意义。