在役导管架平台动态可靠性研究

针对在役海洋平台结构进行可靠性分析,动态可靠性评估是最为有效的方法。包括结构的动力可靠性和时变可靠性评估。针对海洋导管架平台的复杂环境,首先考虑结构腐蚀和损伤等因素,计及载荷效应与抗力效应的影响,并结合时间离散法,计算平台的时变可靠度。通过计算结构的传递函数和响应谱,并依据首次超越理论进行动力可靠度的计算。文章研究的方法能够为海洋平台服役期间的安全状况评估提供理论依据并为平台结构的维修提供指导。     

粉煤灰的活性效应在水泥混凝土中的应用

介绍粉煤灰的化学成分和物理性能,粉煤灰对水泥混凝土强度的作用以及经济效益。     

发动机轴承故障诊断方法的研究

针对EMD（Empirical Mode Decomposition）方法中存在的端点效应和IMF（Intrinsic Mode Function）虚假分量过多的问题,提出了基于互相关的EMD方法。首先,对非平稳性信号进行互相关延拓消除端点效应;其次,对消除端点效应的信号进行EMD分解,并将分解后的IMF与原信号作互相关,保留与原信号最相关的IMF;最后,作出信号的Hilbert边际谱,识别信号的频域特征。仿真结果表明该方法能够有效地克服端点效应,分离出真实IMF。将其应用于船舶发动机滚动轴承故障诊断中,能有效地识别出故障特征。     

The effects of lighting on driver's injury severity at highway‐rail grade crossings

This study estimates the safety effect of illumination on accidents at highway‐rail grade crossings in the United States, using data from exhaustive data from Federal Railroad Administration database covering the period 2002–2011. Using mixed logit modeling approach, the study explores the determinants of driver injury severity at unlighted highway‐rail grade crossings compared with lighted highway‐rail grade crossings in the United States. Several key issues are explored including availability of relevant highway‐rail grade crossing accident inventory data; relevant data element structures; specification and estimation of models to estimate driver's injury severity with lighting and without lighting; and techniques to interpret model parameters. Overall, highway‐rail grade crossing lighting improves safety by reducing the probability of high‐level injury severity through improvements in driver's visibility compared with unlighted intersections. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

A decomposition approach to determining fleet size and structure with network flow effects and demand uncertainty

This paper presents a new methodology to determine fleet size and structure for those airlines operating on hub‐and‐spoke networks. The methodology highlights the impact of stochastic traffic network flow effects on fleet planning process and is employed to construct an enhanced revenue model by incorporating the expected revenue optimization model into fleet planning process. The objective of the model is to find a feasible allocation of aircraft fleet types to route legs using minimum fleet purchasing cost, thus ensuring that the expected fleet profit is maximized subject to several critical resource constraints. By using a linear approximation to the total network revenue function, the fleet planning model with enhanced revenue modeling is decomposed into the nonlinear aspects of expected revenue optimization and the linear aspects of determining fleet size and structure by optimal allocation of aircraft fleet types to route legs. To illustrate this methodology and its economic benefits, an example consisting of 6 chosen aircraft fleet types, 12 route legs, and 57 path‐specific origin‐destination markets is presented and compared with the results found using revenue prorated fleet planning formulation. The results show that the fleet size and structure of the methodology proposed in this paper gain 211.4% improvement in fleet profit over the use of the revenue prorated fleet planning approach. In addition, comparison with the deterministic model reveals that the fleet size and structure of this proposed methodology are more adaptable to the fluctuations of passenger demands. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

基于实验的二维八边形液舱晃荡比尺效应研究

文章针对二维八边形液舱晃荡冲击的比尺效应开展了实验研究。实验根据弗劳德相似准则分别选择1:1原型液舱与1:2和1:3两个比尺模型液舱,在横荡单次冲击外激激励的作用下,考虑80%危险载液率分别对流体冲击侧壁、上斜板和顶板时的晃荡荷载与冲击波形进行了比尺效应对比分析。分析结果表明,冲击过程中,如果原型液舱和缩比模型液舱中对应冲击壁面处于流体中,包裹的气泡越少,冲击压力峰值由模型还原到原型时更接近于原型实验实测值;若考虑整个冲击过程中的流场形态,应尽可能选择大比尺液舱来开展晃荡模型实验。     

Specification and estimation of a spatially and temporally autocorrelated seemingly unrelated regression model: application to crash rates in China

In transportation studies, variables of interest are often influenced by similar factors and have correlated latent terms (errors). In such cases, a seemingly unrelated regression (SUR) model is normally used. However, most studies ignore the potential temporal and spatial autocorrelations across observations, which may lead to inaccurate conclusions. In contrast, the SUR model proposed in this study also considers these correlations, making the model more behaviorally convincing and applicable to circumstances where a three-dimensional correlation exists, across time, space, and equations. An example of crash rates in Chinese cities is used. The results show that incorporation of spatial and temporal effects significantly improves the model. Moreover, investment in transportation infrastructure is estimated to have statistically significant effects on reducing severe crash rates, but with an elasticity of only −0.078. It is also observed that, while vehicle ownership is associated with higher per capita crash rates, elasticities for severe and non-severe crashes are just 0.13 and 0.18, respectively; much lower than one. The techniques illustrated in this study should contribute to future studies requiring multiple equations in the presence of temporal and spatial effects.

物流通道的空间溢出效应检验——基于中国11 条物流通道的实证

以中国11 条物流通道为实证对象,综合测算物流通道技术水平,构造基于地理距 离的空间邻接权重矩阵,检验相关变量的空间自相关性,构建空间杜宾面板数据模型验证了 中国物流通道的空间溢出效应.研究表明：中国物流通道总体上具有显著的正向空间溢出效 应,但从分布于不同空间的物流通道看,长江、沿海、京九、陇海兰新和沪昆物流通道正向空间 溢出效应显著;而京沪、京广和宝昆物流通道研究期内空间溢出效应不显著.我国物流通道的 空间溢出效应具有显著的空间差异,应因地制宜地合理化建设物流通道.     

Mechanical model and characteristics of deep-water drilling riser-wellhead system under internal solitary waves

Internal solitary waves with a huge amount of energy easily trigger the large dynamic responses of riser-wellhead system and threaten its structural safety. However, previous studies have only focused on the dynamic response of the riser under internal solitary waves. The riser may experience excessive traction from the platform, especially from the mooring platform, in response to the arrival of internal solitary waves. The bottom of the riser connects to the wellhead system, which in turn exerts a reaction force on the riser. To address this problem, a coupled dynamic model of deep-water drilling mooring platform-riser-wellhead system under internal solitary waves is developed in this paper. A dynamic response analysis method based on the fourth-order Runge-Kutta method and finite element method is also proposed for the mooring platform-riser-wellhead system. A dynamical solver for the coupled system is then developed using MATLAB. The dynamic response characteristics of the riser-wellhead system under internal solitary waves are calculated. Results show that the displacement and bending moment of the system initially increases and then decreases along with the propagation of internal solitary waves, and finally reach equilibrium position. The displacement and bending moment reach their peak before the trough of internal solitary waves passes through the riser-wellhead system. The dynamic responses of the riser-wellhead system under the influence of internal solitary wave loads are much larger than those without the effect of internal solitary wave loads. The riser system experiences shearing loads at the interface of internal solitary waves, which trigger a step-like bending moment variation. The bending moment of the conductor under the mudline is greatly increased by the internal solitary waves.