Human reliability analysis method on armored vehicle system considering error correction

Human reliability analysis(HRA) is an expansion of man-machine engineering. It is also a new multidisciplinary based on behavioral science, cognitive science, information processing, system analysis and probability statistics in order to analyze, predict, reduce and prevent human errors. Firstly, the quantitative analysis model of HRA is proposed based on Markov process theory by using human error probability(HEP) and error correction cycle(ECC) as parameters. And human reliability evaluation criterion is built. Then, the HRA process considering error correction is proposed based on cognitive reliability and error analysis method(CREAM). Finally, according to the characteristics of armored vehicle system, common performance condition(CPC) in CREAM is improved.A reliability impact index is characterized by the overall contexts of tasks. Human reliability evaluation criterion of armored vehicle system is formulated. And the result of HRA is obtained based on the method presented in this paper. In addition, the relative weights are estimated by combining scale of 10/10—18/2 and analytical hierarchy process(AHP), and the triangular fuzzy number considering confidence factor and optimism index is adopted in order to reduce the subjectivity. The analysis results show that the method presented in this paper is reasonable and feasible. Meantime, the method can provide guidance for human reliability analysis of other weapon systems.     

基于 GO 法的车用发动机增压系统可靠性分析

以车用发动机增压系统为例,分别采用 GO 法直接算法、修正算法和精确算法进行了动态可用度计算,并且基于 GO 法对系统进行定性分析。通过与故障树、蒙特卡洛仿真结果对比,验证了 GO 法对车用发动机废气涡轮增压系统可靠性分析的正确性和适用性。     

Reliability Analysis of Retracting Actuator with Multi-State Based on Goal Oriented Methodology

In order to conduct effective reliability analysis of retracting actuator with multi-state(success state,safety failure state and action failure state), we redefine type-3 operator in goal oriented(GO) method to describe three states of main charge of retracting actuator and improve type-15 operator in GO method to describe the logic relations of multi-state output. The quantitative and qualitative reliability analyses of retracting actuator are made based on GO method in this paper. The system state probability of retracting actuator is obtained through quantitative analysis, and its weakness is found through qualitative analysis. The analysis results show that GO method is effective to improve the reliability of retracting actuator, and this method is also feasible for reliability analysis of other complicated initiating explosive systems.     

Reliability Analysis of Aero-Engine Main Fuel System Based on GO Methodology

To improve the reliability of an aero-engine main fuel system, the quantitative and qualitative reliability analysis of the system is conducted based on goal oriented (GO) methodology. The quantitative reliability analysis results and the minimum cut sets of the fuel system are obtained, respectively. These results are compared with the results of the FTA (Fault Tree Analysis) method, and the comparison result shows GO method is rational and applicable. Therefore, it is feasible to apply the GO method in the reliability analysis of an aero-engine main fuel system.