A network option portfolio management framework for adaptive transportation planning

A real option portfolio management framework is proposed to make use of an adaptive network design problem developed using stochastic dynamic programming methodologies. The framework is extended from Smit’s and Trigeorgis’ option portfolio framework to incorporate network synergies. The adaptive planning framework is defined and tested on a case study with time series origin-destination demand data. Historically, OD time series data is costly to obtain, and there has not been much need for it because most transportation models use a single time-invariant estimate based on deterministic forecasting of demand. Despite the high cost and institutional barriers of obtaining abundant OD time series data, we illustrate how having higher fidelity data along with an adaptive planning framework can result in a number of improved management strategies. An insertion heuristic is adopted to run the lower bound adaptive network design problem for a coarse Iran network with 834 nodes, 1121 links, and 10 years of time series data for 71,795 OD pairs.     

Assessment of alternative ventilation schemes at public transport interchange

The provision of mechanical ventilation in a semi-confined public transport interchange is mandatory in Hong Kong. The authority recommends the general use of low-level-supply and high-level-exhaust airflow schemes that different from the traditional ventilation concept in that low-level emitted vehicle pollutants are best removed at source. Analyses of air quality at typical public transport interchange environments are conducted for the two airflow schemes. The CFD simulations are generalized by studying light and heavy traffic conditions with adjusted ventilation rates to match the change in vehicle emission levels to examine pollutant concentrations at passenger waiting areas and the elevated footbridges. While the conventional high-level-supply and low-level-exhaust scheme could perform better during light traffic loads, the difference diminishes with increased traffic loads during peak hours. On the other hand, the high-level exhaust scheme has an advantage of serving as a smoke extraction system during a fire outbreak.     

State-of-the art of freight forecast modeling: lessons learned and the road ahead

In this paper we review freight forecasting models and current advances and needs with respect to data and model development. We then present a case study to suggest which models should be developed for the State of California in the US. We suggest several alternatives including an aggregate commodity flow model, a disaggregate regional logistics model and a hybrid regional logistics model with a truck touring model. We point out however, that the data requirements for the latter model would be extensive. In addition, the development of hybrid models, for example progress in the integration of regional logistics models with urban truck touring models, will introduce new problems such as reconciling the outputs of multiple models for consistency.     

新加坡交通需求管理的关键策略与特色

针对新加坡交通发展面临的挑战,介绍了新加坡减少汽车使用量和增加公共交通使用量的一体化交通政策,以及限制车辆拥有和管理道路使用的交通需求管理框架。重点分析了两个典型的交通需求管理策略：限制区域执照系统和公路收费系统,探讨了两个系统的目标、运作、实施效果,并将其与其他城市的公路收费系统进行对比。研究显示,以需求管理为导向的一体化交通政策有效地解决了新加坡交通拥堵问题,对新加坡的经济、环境和社会的可持续发展产生了积极影响。     

The motion analysis of fire video images based on moment features and flicker frequency

In this paper, motion analysis methods based on the moment features and flicker frequency features for early fire flame from ordinary CCD video camera were proposed, and in order to describe the changing of flame and disturbance of non-flame phenomena further more, the average changing pixel number of the first-order moments of consecutive flames has been defined in the moment analysis as well. The first-order moments of all kinds of flames used in our experiments present irregularly flickering, and their average changing pixel numbers of first-order moments are greater than fire-like disturbances. For the analysis of flicker frequency of flame, which is extracted and calculated in spatial domain, and therefore it is computational simple and fast. The method of extracting flicker frequency from video images is not affected by the catalogues of combustion material and distance. In experiments, we adopted two kinds of flames, i.e. , fixed flame and movable flame. Many comparing and disturbing experiments were done and verified that the methods can be used as criteria for early fire detection.     

Network-based real option models

Building on earlier work to incorporate real option methodologies into network modeling, two models are proposed. The first is the network option design problem, which maximizes the expanded net present value of a network investment as a function of network design variables with the option to defer the committed design investment. The problem is shown to be a generalized version of the network design problem and the multi-period network design problem. A heuristic based on radial basis functions is used to solve the problem for continuous link expansion with congestion effects. The second model is a link investment deferral option set, which decomposes the network investment deferral option into individual, interacting link or project investments. This model is a project selection problem under uncertainty, where each link or project can be deferred such that the expanded net present value is maximized. The option is defined in such a way that a lower bound can be solved using an exact method based on multi-option least squares Monte Carlo simulation. Numerical tests are conducted with the classical Sioux Falls network and compared to earlier published results.     

Adaptive traffic control system: Control strategy,prediction, resolution,and accuracy

Recent advances in traffic control methods have led to flexible control strategies for use in an adaptive traffic control system (ATCS). ATCS aims at controlling the imminent traffic, which is yet to arrive and hence not known perfectly. Therefore, volume prediction is an essential part. Associated with the prediction are two aspects: resolution and accuracy. Recent studies indicate a tradeoff between prediction resolution and accuracy: finer resolutions, larger errors. It is imperative to study the relationship and tradeoff between the control strategy, prediction resolution, and its associated error, which are crucial to the development of ATCS. This study investigates this relationship through an extensive simulation of scenarios in Hong Kong with a recently developed dynamic traffic control model, DISCO. Based on the Hong Kong scenarios conducted with DISCO, the major findings include: (i) the importance of resolution outweighs that of error; (ii) dynamic timing plans generally outperform time‐invariant timing plans; (iii) up to a certain extent, overestimated predictions lead to better results than underestimated predictions.     

车企加大本地化生产以争取国内市场份额

随着奔驰、奥迪、雪铁龙都在上海车展上向全球展示新车型,自主品牌显得相对落后了。而且这些跨国品牌的一些新车型将要在中国本地化生产,这也为众多国内消费者树立了高端汽车的新标准。虽然中国汽车市场的增长量正在减慢,但高端市场却比整个市场的发展要快,在这个细分市场的竞争是激烈的。     

Empirical assessment of urban traffic congestion

This paper presents an empirical assessment of urban traffic congestion in Central London, UK. Compared with freeways or motorways, urban networks are relatively less studied because of its complexity and availability of required traffic data. This paper introduces the use of automatic number plate recognition technology to analyze the characteristic of urban traffic congestion in Central London. We also present the use of linear regression to diagnose the observed congestion and attribute them to different causes. In particular, we distinguish the observed congestion into two main components: one due to recurrent factors and the other due to nonrecurrent factors. The methodologies are illustrated through a case study of Central London Area. It is found that about 15% of the observed congestion in the region is due to nonrecurrent factors such as accidents, roadwork, special events, and strikes. Given the significance of London, the study will be valuable for transport policy evaluation and appraisal in other global cities. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.