Widening the Panama Canal and U.S. ports: historical and economic impact analyses

ABSTRACT

The economic history of the U.S. illustrates how the role of many cities has been changed by being seaports or located on navigable rivers or lakes. Based on the widening of the Panama Canal in 2016, the West Coast ports that include the west coast seaports of California, Oregon, and Washington were expected to become less important, while the freight shares of the East Coast and Gulf ports would increase. By how much it has been not easy to measure or predict so far, but this study attempted to define some of the key parameters in the measurement. As well as several relevant background topics, both the demand- and supply-side versions of the National Interstate Economic Model, have been applied for the measurement of economic impacts. U.S. port authorities and policy makers at the local and national levels who respond and develop plans for coping with the new realities of the Panama Canal are able to understand the extent to which changes in shippers’ and land-mode transporters’ behaviors would undermine the logistics and the costs of their activities. Therefore, this study is important for a diverse spectrum of port development strategies in the U.S. to respond to the Canal expansion.     

A stated preference examination of time of travel choice for a recreational trip: An addendum

A paper was published in the immediately previous issue of this journal describing a stated preference experiment examining how people are influenced in the selection of a departure time for a hypothetical trip to see a movie. The title was ‘A stated preference examination of time of travel choice for a recreational trip’, Volume 30(3):17–44. Numbers were used to indicate references in the text of the paper and in Table 1 accompanying the text, but these numbers were omitted from the list of references at the end of the paper - making it very difficult to identify specific citations. The list of references from the paper is reprinted below with the reference numbers included. This provides a listing that can be used in conjunction with the text of the paper and Table 1 as published to identify specific citations as intended.     

The potential for real-time passenger information as part of an integrated bus-control/information system

This paper is concerned with the effect of linking innovative bus-control systems with real-time passenger information, with the overall aim of improving conditions for bus operation and passengers in central urban corridors. The first section presents a concise review of bus passenger information systems (particularly their application at bus stops). Then the concept of real-time passenger information is explored. The case for and against real-time information is argued and two British case-studies follow. In the second section it is argued that the provision of real-time information, as part of an integrated bus-control/information system, offers new possibilities for meeting the identified needs of public transport users. Finally, in the third section, some comments are made on the evaluation of different combinations of bus-control and passenger information tested using a simulation method and a series of subjective response surveys. General relationships governing the degree of bus-control required and the extent of information needed are of special interest.     

The role of professional associations in shipping

This article is in three parts. The first covers the historical development of qualifying associations. The second covers the particular role of maritime institutions that include The Royal Institution of Naval Architects, The Institute of Marine Engineering Science and Technology and The Nautical Institute. The third and final section considers the future for maritime professional associations in the context of international shipping.     

The market for second-hand ships: Further results on efficiency using cointegration analysis

This paper examines the dynamic behaviour of second-hand prices of tankers and dry-cargo vessels over various time periods, with a view to determining whether or not the markets for such assets are efficient. It extends and re-analyses the results of an earlier study by Hale and Vanags, published in this journal in 1992. Using a more modern method of testing for cointegration, it is shown that both the tanker and dry cargo markets appear to be cointegrated, a fact which would suggest that these markets are inefficient. It is suggested that the existence of cointegration does not necessarily imply market inefficiency, if the factors that create the common trends are themselves stochastic in nature. With this in mind, it is argued that the evidence put forward in this paper is still consistent with market efficiency in the long run.     

Effect of fatigue strain range on properties of high-strength structural steel

Ship hulls are built with stiffened steel plates and experience continuous fatigue load cycles when in service. Mechanical properties of the steel are expected to change due to the application of these cyclic loads. Therefore, the mechanical properties of the material at various levels of fatigue damage need to be understood. This paper presents two test series that were conducted to determine the effect of two different strain ranges (2000 and 3000 micro strains) of fatigue cycles on the mechanical properties of high-strength structural steel. The test results indicate that the cycle-dependent behaviours of the material can cause a slight increase or a significant decrease in the yield strength when compared to its virgin state. However, the ductility of the steel does not change much as the strain cycle increases.     

Estimation of value of travel time reliability

In mode choice decision, travelers consider not only travel time but also reliability of its modes. In this paper, reliability was expressed in terms of standard deviation and maximum delay that were measured based on triangular distribution. In order to estimate value of time and value of reliability, the Multinomial and Nested Logit models were used. The analysis results revealed that reliability is an important factor affecting mode choice decisions. Elasticity is used to estimate the impacts of the different policies and system improvements for water transportation mode. Among these policies, decision maker can assess and select the best alternative by doing the benefit and cost analysis based on a new market share, the value of time, and the value of reliability. Finally, a set of promising policies and system improvement of the water transportation were proposed.     

Eddies around Madagascar — The retroflection re-considered

The Agulhas Current with its retroflection and attendant eddy-shedding is the cause of some of the greatest mesoscale variability in the ocean. This paper considers the area to the south and east of Madagascar, which provides some of the source waters of the Agulhas Current, and examines the propagating sea surface height signals in altimetry and output from a numerical model, OCCAM. Both show bands of variability along the axis of the East Madagascar Current (EMC) and along a zonal band near 25°S. Sequences of images plus associated temperature data suggest that a number of westward-propagating eddies are present in this zonal band. The paper then focuses on the region to the south of the island, where ocean colour and infra-red imagery are evocative of an East Madagascar Retroflection. The synthesis of data analysed in this paper, however, shows that remotely observed features in this area can be explained by anticyclonic eddies moving westward through the region, and this explanation is consistent with numerical model output and the trajectories of drifting buoys.     

The design of bus route systems — An interactive location-allocation approach

An interactive modelling approach is developed to solve the practical problem of bus route network design. Possible bus routes are identified with facilities which can be located. Zones or pairs of zones in the urban area are identified with customers who will be allocated to the established facilities. It is shown that the classical Set Covering Problem is useful under the assumption of fixed demand; the Simple Plant Location Problem is effective under the assumption of demand which is sensitive to the level of bus service provided.