Maritime accident investigation and temporal determinants of maritime accidents: A case study

This paper presents the results of an investigation into temporal determinants of maritime accidents based on a data-set obtained from the proceedings of formal inquiries in the former German Democratic Republic (GDR). The results show that there is no statistically significant outcome between the probability for an accident and the time of watch. Thus the results do not confirm previous studies, which reported significant time of day effects.The outcome of this study indicates that marine inquiries can provide useful data for an analysis of underlying causes of maritime accidents. It is suggested that accident inquiries should be extended into the area of watch systems employed and should record the hours of work and of rest of the officers on the watch involved in a maritime accident.     

轿车前部结构参数对儿童头部损伤影响分析

在轿车-行人碰撞事故中,影响行人头部损伤的车辆前部结构参数主要有:保险杠中心离地高度、保险杠宽度和伸出长度、发动机盖前缘高度及发动机盖倾斜角等.文中首先建立了儿童行人的仿真模型,并利用事故重建验证了仿真模型的可靠性;接着采用正交试验分析了上述参数对儿童头部伤害指数的影响;最后将所得结果和成年行人头部损伤的相关指数进行比较.结果表明,前部结构参数对儿童头部损伤的影响比成人的大,其中发动机盖前缘高度对儿童行人头部伤害的影响最为显著.     

A velocity and payload dependent emission model for heavy-duty road freight transportation

The paper develops a forecasting model of emissions from traffic flows embracing the dynamics of driving behavior due to variations in payload. To measure of emissions at the level of individual vehicles under varying payloads a portable emission measurement system is used. This paper reports on a model based on data at the level of individual vehicles for a representative road trajectory. The model aggregates the data to the level of a homogeneous flow dependent of velocity and specific power, which is dependent on payload weight. We find a lean specification for the model that provides emission factors for CO₂, NO_x, HC, CO, and NO₂. The results indicate that, in comparison with earlier models, NO_x emissions in particular tend to be underestimated.     

Suitability of Decision-Theoretic Models to Public Policy Issues Concerning the Provision of Shoreline Stabilization and Hazard Management

This article examines the suitability and potential advances of decision-theoretic models from finance regarding investment decisions in shoreline stabilization projects. A set of scenarios represents the dynamics of the decision-state facing the planner and identifies factors that should be incorporated into the decision-making process. It is shown that decision models from finance can account for the risk and uncertainty inherent in shoreline stabilization projects, potentially suggest improvements and refinements to presently used cost-benefit analysis procedures, and offer new tools that can aid in decisions concerning provision of shoreline stabilization. The outcomes of these scenarios justify better planning and control of existing and future building, and that of poststorm policies. Lastly, these models allow us to explore the range of our understanding of coastal processes and interactions with shoreline stabilization projects and can identify new and useful data needed in coastal management and hazard management decisions.     

A Multibody Model for the Simulation of Bicycle Suspension Systems

The paper describes a two-dimensional mathematical model for the motion of a bicycle-rider system with wheel suspensions. It focusses on the prediction of vibrational stress on the rider due to uneven track. The model was evaluated by comparing its predictions with measuring data concerning weighted accelerations on the human body, depending on various bicycle designs and road surfaces. For the intended purpose the predictions for vibrational stress and vibrational behaviour are sufficiently precise, and the model turns out to be adequate for designing and developing bicycle suspensions.     

100-years-changes in the phytoplankton community of Kiel Bight (Baltic Sea)

Literature data from 1905/06, 1912/13 and 1949/50 were compared with recent data (2001–2003) from Kiel Bight in order to investigate changes in phytoplankton composition and biomass, which may serve as indicators of environmental changes. In terms of biomass, diatomophyceae and dinophyceae are by far the most important groups. Their ratio is still close to unity. The share of diatomophyceae increased strongly in years with exceptionally high summer blooms (2001) or exceptionally early spring blooms (2003). The summer and autumn blooms of Chaetoceros and Skeletonema, detected in the early 20th century, are replaced by other diatoms (Cerataulina pelagica, Dactyliosolen fragilissimus, Proboscia alata, Pseudo-nitzschia spp.). Chaetoceros and Skeletonema are still important components of the spring blooms. Now as before, the autumn blooms are dominated by Ceratium spp., sometimes also by diatoms. Newly appearing bloom-forming species are mostly potentially toxic (Dictyocha speculum, Prorocentrum minimum, Pseudo-nitzschia spp.). The total phytoplankton biomass has roughly doubled in the course of the last century. The reference condition for phytoplankton biomass in Kiel Bight in the sense of the Water Framework Directive was defined at 55 mg C m^− 3 (± 10%, annual mean). The mean annual biomass of diatomophyceae and dinophyceae was 25 mg C m^− 3 (± 40%) for each, indicating that the sum of their carbon biomass amounted to 90% (± 10%) of the total phytoplankton biomass on an annual average. Diatomophyceae represented at least 80% of carbon biomass in the spring bloom peak at the beginning of the 20th century.