Mental models of driving and speed: biases,choices and reality

This paper provides a review of research performed by Svenson with colleagues and others work on mental models and their practical implications. Mental models describe how people perceive and think about the world including covariances and relationships between different variables, such as driving speed and time. Research on mental models has detected the time-saving bias [Svenson, O. (1970). A functional measurement approach to intuitive estimation as exemplified by estimated time savings. Journal of Experimental Psychology, 86, 204–210]. It means that drivers relatively overestimate the time that can be saved by increasing speed from an already high speed, for example, 90–130?km/h, and underestimate the time that can be saved by increasing speed from a low speed, for example, 30–45?km/h. In congruence with this finding, mean speed judgments and perceptions of mean speeds are also biased and higher speeds given too much weight and low speeds too little weight in comparison with objective reality. Replacing or adding a new speedometer in the car showing min per km eliminated or weakened the time-saving bias. Information about braking distances at different speeds did not improve overoptimistic judgments of braking capacity, but information about collision speed with an object suddenly appearing on the road did improve judgments of braking capacity. This is relevant to drivers, politicians and traffic regulators.     

Effect of critical incidents on public transport satisfaction and loyalty: an Ordinal Probit SEM-MIMIC approach

Transportation - Supplying public transport systems with high levels of service quality is fundamental for retaining users and attracting new ones. Policies that improve transit service quality...     

Extracting patterns from Twitter to promote biking

Emphasis on non-motorized travel modes (for example, biking) reduces motorized trips and provides positive effects on the environment and the quality of human life. Understanding factors that influence people to biking or bike commuting can help decision makers, transportation planners, and bike commuting networks. Historically, conventional methods like surveys and crash data analyses were conducted to understand relevant factors. Survey and crash data analysis are difficult to perform in broad scale due to data availability and efforts. An innovative approach to determining these factors is to conduct social media mining to understand sentiments or motivations of bike commuters. People use terms (with hashtag at the beginning of the term) in Twitter, a popular social media network, to express their thoughts, activities or information. This study developed a framework for using Twitter data in understating the sentiments of the bikers with minimal effort. In this study, Twitter data associated with bike commuting hashtags were obtained for eight years (2009–2016). This study provided a framework of data collection and application of various natural language processing (NLP) tools (for example, text mining, sentiment analysis) to extract knowledge from the unstructured text data. Findings show that biking is associated with weather and seasonal patterns. The general sentiment towards biking is positive. However, negative sentiments are associated with bad weather, crime, and other challenges. The polarity scores indicate somewhat positiveness in the recent few years. The developed framework and the findings of this study will help planners and decision makers to promote biking on a broader scale.     

A Stated Preference Experiment for Measuring Service Quality in Public Transport

Abstract

This paper develops a Stated Preference (SP) experiment that provides a way to measure service quality in public transport. The paper introduces an empirical procedure for optimising the SP experiment. This procedure permits the identification of the choice alternatives defining the experiment by simulating the choices of a user sample. By using the data collected from an experimental survey, a Multinomial Logit model was calibrated. This model is a way of identifying the importance of service quality attributes on global customer satisfaction and calculating a Service Quality Index, which provides an operationally appealing measure of current or potential service effectiveness.     

How to Capture the Passengers’ Point of View on a Transit Service through Rating and Choice Options

Abstract

In this paper, a methodology for capturing the transit passenger’s point of view by using both rating and choice options is proposed. For this purpose, some discrete choice logit models are introduced; the models allow the probability of choice of some alternative transit services to be calculated, and the importance of each service aspect to be determined. The models are calibrated by using data collected by a survey in which a stated preferences experiment was proposed to a sample of passengers, and some judgements were expressed by them about their transit services, in terms of perceptions and expectations. The introduced methodology provides a relevant contribution from a practical viewpoint because it allows the identification of the most important aspects on overall service quality; it is useful to the transit operators for measuring service quality and for investing on the various service aspects in order to effectively improve transit services.     

The Strategy for Coastal Sustainability: A Spanish Initiative for ICZM

The Spanish Strategy for Coastal Sustainability (SCS) was an initiative aimed at implementing coastal interventions under the principles of Integrated Coastal Zone Management (ICZM) and improving the state of the coast at the Spanish national level. The SCS, promoted by the Spanish Ministry of the Environment, started as a broad national strategy in 2005 and was finally delivered as a coastal planning instrument at the regional level in late 2007, designed to address coastal policies within the Spanish maritime–terrestrial public domain (MTPD). The initiative was triggered by the increasing pressure on the coastal zone and its preparation was supported by different European initiatives, first of all the European Recommendation on ICZM (413/2002/EC), while taking into consideration the future requirements of the Mediterranean Protocol on ICZM of the Barcelona Convention, signed in February 2008. Technically, the preparation of the SCS included four steps: (i) a Stakeholder Identification and Engagement process, including a stocktaking of the laws and regulations, (ii) the design of a broad Strategic Framework for the Spanish coastal zone, including a set of specific objectives and the instruments for its implementation, (iii) the signature of cooperation agreements for ICZM between the central government and the regions, and (iv) a detailed Technical Diagnosis at the local scale, designed to address future coastal interventions in the maritime–terrestrial public domain and its areas of influence. This article aims to: (i) illustrate the triggering factors of the SCS, including the Spanish coastal issues, the administrative framework at the national level, and the European and international policies addressing coastal management and (ii) illustrate the approaches and methodologies used for the preparation of the SCS, reporting the most relevant quantitative results. The article concludes that the SCS gave a strong contribution in the construction of a base of knowledge for the coastal zone and to improve coastal management practices. Despite this, complex distributions of competences still undermine the implementation of strategic interventions. In this context, the future ratification of the ICZM Protocol of the Barcelona Convention represents an opportunity to use the SCS process results and improve coastal management practices and the state of the coast.     

An Alert System for Beach Hazard Management in the Balearic Islands

A real-time beach hazard level associated with nearshore hydrodynamics is presented in this article. The suitability of the discussed alert system is illustrated via its application to fifteen beaches in the Balearic Islands (Western Mediterranean Sea) providing nearshore safety conditions for beach safety manager. The system provides daily forecasts of nearshore wave conditions using the deep water wave forecasts. The shallow water wave data (wave height, period, and direction) together with the morphology of the site (presence of bars, capes, beach type, etc.) are used to define a hazard level (low, medium, and high) associated with local conditions. The resulting hazard level is transmitted via SMS to lifeguards and local authorities for real-time beach management. The low computational cost of this system after the initial implementation and subsequent calibration results in a very suitable approach for beach management in order to mitigate risks related to local hydrodynamics.     

Changes in dissolved silicate loads to the Baltic Sea — The effects of lakes and reservoirs

We tested the hypothesis that dissolved silicate (DSi) yields [kg km^− 2 yr^− 1] of 82 major watersheds of the Baltic Sea can be expressed as a function of the hydraulic load (HL) as a measure of water residence time and the total organic carbon (TOC) concentration, both variables potentially increasing the DSi yield. Most boreal rivers fitted a linear regression model using HL as an independent variable to explain the DSi yield. Rivers with high HL, i.e., shortest residence times, showed highest DSi yields up to 2300 kg km^− 2 yr^− 1. This is most likely caused by an excess supply of DSi, i.e., the geochemical sources prevail over biological sinks in these boreal watersheds. The DSi yield for regulated and unregulated larger rivers of the boreal watersheds constituting about 40% of the total water discharge and of the total DSi load to the Baltic Sea, respectively, can be expressed as: DSi yield = 190 + 49.5 HL[m yr^− 1] + 0.346 TOC [µM] (R² = 0.80). Since both HL and TOC concentrations have decreased after damming, the DSi yields have decreased significantly in the regulated boreal watersheds, for the River Luleälven we estimated more than 30%. The larger eutrophic watersheds draining cultivated landscape of the southern catchment of the Baltic Sea and representing about 50% of the annual water discharge to the Baltic Sea, deviated from this pattern and showed lower DSi yields between 60–580 kg km^− 2 yr^− 1. DSi yields showed saturation curve like relationship to HL and it appears that DSi is retained in the watersheds efficiently through biogenic silica (BSi) production and subsequent sedimentation along the entire river network. The relationship between HL and DSi yields for all larger cultivated watersheds was best fitted by a Freundlich isotherm (DSi = 115.7HL¹⁰⁹; R² = 0.73), because once lake and reservoir area exceeds 10% of the watershed area, minimum DSi yields were reached. To estimate an uperturbed DSi yield for the larger eutrophic southeastern watersheds is still difficult, since no unperturbed watersheds for comparison were available. However, a rough estimate indicate that the DSi flux from the cultivated watersheds to the Baltic Sea is nowadays only half the uperturbed flux. Overall, the riverine DSi loads to the Baltic Sea might have dropped with 30–40% during the last century.