Rapid first-stage tests of on-ship infection

Protection against on-ship infectious disease—whether due to mishap or to harmful purpose—faces special situational problems. Sometimes, when infection levels on board have reached threshold levels, emergency actions are required. Often, the most thorough strategies for responding to threat are not feasible. A rapid first-stage test (RFT) is a fast, minimally invasive procedure used to rule out from possible infection a large percentage of an infection-threatened group. Prevention and control of on-ship infection need to combine various interconnected tactics. When timely criterion tests are not possible, the medical team must adopt fast alternative measures. The methods used to summarize protection against on-ship infectious agents included a scientific literature review and a web search. The fields of the review were maritime, health, and technology sources. Special attention was paid to material dealing with risks and threats of on-ship penetration by infectious agents, on-ship infection prevalence thresholds, and rapid diagnostic screens. The Bayes rule and the law of large numbers were applied to the analysis, for large on-ship populations, of RFT indications of crossing of an infection prevalence threshold. The increasing risk of serious on-ship infection—either accidental or purposeful—calls for a multi-layered protection approach. RFTs are a key part of the outer layer of such a defense. Well-designed and well-administered RFTs provide several advantages for defense against on-ship infection: low-cost, non-invasive, fast, and focuses on a drastically smaller number of infection possibilities.     

Development of a differential route share model for railroad freight traffic

This paper summarizes work undertaken towards development and calibration of a model to predict the distribution of rail freight traffic among competing routes. The model is designed for use in analyzing the traffic effects of changes in the level-of-service on selected rail lines. The model predicts route shares based on the overall network configuration of each railroad participating in a given market. The model selects feasible routes, discards those routes which appear to be too circuitous or costly, and then assigns traffic to the remaining routes in accordance with several network characteristics. It is designed to be sensitive to level-of-service changes, and to simulate the response of shippers and railroads to a competitive environment. A multiple route-finding algorithm was used to find possible routes based on the number of railroads operating at the originating and terminating end of a market. Multiple routes were determined and matched with observed traffic flows from the ICC One-Percent Waybill Sample. Physical network characteristics for each route, including distance, junction frequency, and “impedance,” were calculated from the network model and were correlated with the traffic share observed on each route in the market. A two-stage model was developed to find feasible routes from the set of possible routes and to allocate traffic to feasible routes based on levels-of-service. The model was calibrated on 9,793 routes from 1,199 markets with twenty or more carloads from the 1977 One-Percent Carload Waybill Sample. Model calibration supported the hypothesis that network route characteristics did indeed influence shipper choice of route, and that a normative model could be used to assess relative attractiveness of routes under various railroad corporate ownership restructuring scenarios.     

An application of interactive management information systems to environmental planning: Coastal zone management

Recent emphasis in comprehensive planning for coastal zone regions has created the need for more effective tools for information processing and analysis to aid policymakers and planners in developing strategies for preservation of coastal zone areas. New agencies with broad powers have been created at both state and federal levels to deal with growth management in large coastal regions. However, coastal zone management (CZM) agencies have not yet been able to deal effectively with development processes. A “holding action”; is being maintained in the face of mounting pressure by developers, while planners struggle to develop (1) a data base with sufficient detail for planning; (2) a fair and rapid process for reviewing environmental impact statements and granting of development permits; and (3) a system for making the development permit application process more routine. The key to success of the CZM process is the development of a management information system (MIS) created explicitly for CZM. The prototypical system designed by the authors combines graphic display capabilities (i.e., map display) with interactive on‐line computing and large storage‐capacity computers. Problems of data structure development are documented, together with problems of assembling a large‐scale, highly detailed data base. Of particular importance is the need for well‐developed objectives and specifications for the use of computer‐based data in resolving disputes on environmental issues. A set of objectives and specifications for a prototypical coastal zone MIS is developed. The system is described in detail, showing how its capabilities directly address policy questions formulated by coastal zone planners.     

现代城市发展的双生儿:公共交通与城市规划

快速的城市化是个世界性的现象.今天,全球有超过50%的人口居住在城市,到2050年,这个比例还会增加到70%.中国在过去20年间的城市化增长特别迅速,反映出朝气蓬勃的经济发展.     

微网和故障保护 微网能独立支持更大的宏网

从传统上讲，电力的输送是从大型集中的发电厂通过集中的输电网向本地分配系统供电。但是，在大部分欧洲国家里，这种方式将不再占据主导地位，分布式发电和可再生能源发电已经日益渗透进入这些主要网络。这也为开发新型发电工艺（例如太阳能、风能和水能）提供了良好的前景。     

Economic and service comparison of conventional bus and automated transit—a case study

Three origin‐destination matrices of inter‐zonal person trips for a section of the Los Angeles metropolitan region are analyzed using principal component analysis. The matrices represent total person trips, journey‐to‐work trips, and shopping trips. This allows for the identification of a number of sub‐regional travel fields or functional regions within the area. The composition of and interrelationships between these fields and the spatial coincidence of fields defined for different travel purposes are compared with existing and proposed public transit facilities.