Computing the cost of traffic congestion: a microsimulation exercise of the City of Antofagasta,Chile

Abstract

This paper computes the cost of traffic congestion in the city of Antofagasta in Chile. A microsimulation is implemented where all the agents of the system travel across the transport network. The congestion cost is computed through the aggregation of the opportunity cost of people waiting within the transport system, as a consequence of traffic congestion. Monte Carlo experiments produced an approximated congestion cost of US$1.02 million during a typical working day. Moreover, the simulation provides useful information about the average traveling time for the 14 districts of the city.     

A hazard-based approach to modelling the effects of online shopping on intershopping duration

Despite growing prevalence of online shopping, its impacts on mobility are poorly understood. This partially results from the lack of sufficiently detailed data. In this paper we address this gap using consumer panel data, a new dataset for this context. We analyse one year long longitudinal grocery shopping purchase data from London shoppers to investigate the effects of online shopping on overall shopping activity patterns and personal trips. We characterise the temporal structure of shopping demand by means of the duration between shopping episodes using hazard-based duration models. These models have been used to study inter-shopping spells for traditional shopping in the literature, however effects of online shopping were not considered. Here, we differentiate between shopping events and shopping trips. The former refers to all types of shopping activity including both online and in-store, while the latter is restricted to physical shopping trips. Separate models were estimated for each and results suggest potential substitution effects between online and in-store in the context of grocery shopping. We find that having shopped online since the last shopping trip significantly reduces the likelihood of a physical shopping trip. We do not observe the same effect for inter-event durations. Hence, shopping online does not have a significant effect on overall shopping activity frequency, yet affects shopping trip rates. This is a key finding and suggests potential substitution between online shopping and physical trips to the store. Additional insights on which factors, including basket size and demographics, affect inter-shopping durations are also drawn.     

A nonlinear model of bicycle shimmy

This paper presents a nonlinear model accurately describing, both qualitatively and quantitatively, the onset and dynamics of bicycle shimmy. Methods of nonlinear dynamics, such as numerical continuation and bifurcation analysis, show that the model exhibits two stable periodic motions found experimentally in on-road tests: the weave and wobble (or shimmy) mode. The modelling results are compared with experimental data collected by riding a racing bicycle downhill at high speeds with hands on the handlebar. The model predicts with surprising accuracy the amplitudes and frequencies of the oscillations, the longitudinal velocity at which they occur, as well as the substantial independence of wobble frequency and amplitude from the forward speed. The lateral acceleration of the upper tube of the frame near the steering axis reaches 5–10?g, both in the model and in the data. The analysis shows that wobble onset and amplitude is particularly sensitive to changes in the torsional stiffness of the frame and strongly depends on tyre lateral force and aligning torque at the wheel–road contact point. It also allows to quantify the additional viscous rotary damping that should be added to the steering assembly to prevent wobble.