Prospects for plug-in hybrid electric vehicles in the United States and Japan: A general equilibrium analysis

The plug-in hybrid electric vehicle (PHEV) may offer a potential near term, low-carbon alternative to today’s gasoline- and diesel-powered vehicles. A representative vehicle technology that runs on electricity in addition to conventional fuels was introduced into the MIT Emissions Prediction and Policy Analysis (EPPA) model as a perfect substitute for internal combustion engine (ICE-only) vehicles in two likely early-adopting markets, the United States and Japan. We investigate the effect of relative vehicle cost and all-electric range on the timing of PHEV market entry in the presence and absence of an advanced cellulosic biofuels technology and a strong (450 ppm) economy-wide carbon constraint. Vehicle cost could be a significant barrier to PHEV entry unless fairly aggressive goals for reducing battery costs are met. If a low-cost PHEV is available we find that its adoption has the potential to reduce CO₂ emissions, refined oil demand, and under a carbon policy the required CO₂ price in both the United States and Japan. The emissions reduction potential of PHEV adoption depends on the carbon intensity of electric power generation. Thus, the technology is much more effective in reducing CO₂ emissions if adoption occurs under an economy-wide cap and trade system that also encourages low-carbon electricity generation.     

Simulation of the oil spill processes in the Sea of Japan with regional ocean circulation model

A simulation of the movement of spilled oil after the incident of the Russian tanker Nakhodka in the Sea of Japan, in January 1997, was performed by a particle tracking model incorporating advection by currents, random diffusion, the buoyancy effect, the parameterization of oil evaporation, biodegradation, and beaching. The currents advecting spilled oil were defined by surface wind drift superposed on the three-dimensional ocean currents obtained by the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory modular ocean model (GFDL MOM), which was forced by the climatological monthly mean meteorological data, or by the European Center for Medium Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) daily meteorological data, and assimilated sea surface topography detected by satellite altimeter. A number of experiments with different parameters and situations showed that the wide geographical spread of oil observed is not explained by wind drift alone, and that including the simulated climatological currents gives better results. The combination of surface wind drift and daily ocean currents shows the best agreement between the model and observations except in some coastal areas. The daily meteorological effect on the ocean circulation model results in a stronger variability of currents that closely simulates some features of the nonlinear large-scale horizontal turbulent diffusion of oil. The effect of different parameterizations for the size distribution of model oil particles is discussed. Received for publication on July 26, 1999; accepted on Nov. 17, 1999     

Super-low-frequency laser instrument for measuring hydrosphere pressure variations

The operating principle and specifications of a laser meter for measuring hydrosphere pressure variations are described in this article. The meter was designed to measure the hydrosphere pressure variations to a depth of 500 m within the frequency range of 0–1000 Hz at the level of background oscillations. Some results obtained using the apparatus under consideration when recording sea oscillations and waves of natural and artificial origin are presented.     

Reducing CO<Subscript>2</Subscript> from cars in the European Union

The European Union (EU) recently adopted CO₂ emissions mandates for new passenger cars, requiring steady reductions to 95 gCO₂/km in 2021. We use a multi-sector computable general equilibrium (CGE) model, which includes a private transportation sector with an empirically-based parameterization of the relationship between income growth and demand for vehicle miles traveled. The model also includes representation of fleet turnover, and opportunities for fuel use and emissions abatement, including representation of electric vehicles. We analyze the impact of the mandates on oil demand, CO₂ emissions, and economic welfare, and compare the results to an emission trading scenario that achieves identical emissions reductions. We find that vehicle emission standards reduce CO₂ emissions from transportation by about 50 MtCO₂ and lower the oil expenditures by about €6 billion, but at a net added cost of €12 billion in 2020. Tightening CO₂ standards further after 2021 would cost the EU economy an additional €24–63 billion in 2025, compared with an emission trading system that achieves the same economy-wide CO₂ reduction. We offer a discussion of the design features for incorporating transport into the emission trading system.     

滋力探测针孔腐蚀

Weatherford管线和特种服务集团（Weatherford’s Pipeline＆Services Group）的Sergey Panteleymonov采用磁力在线检测数据评定管线潜在的泄漏     

俄罗斯重载线路车轮和钢轨外形的优化

介绍了俄罗斯重载线路轮轨外形匹配最优化的设计方法。