Widening the Panama Canal and U.S. ports: historical and economic impact analyses

ABSTRACT

The economic history of the U.S. illustrates how the role of many cities has been changed by being seaports or located on navigable rivers or lakes. Based on the widening of the Panama Canal in 2016, the West Coast ports that include the west coast seaports of California, Oregon, and Washington were expected to become less important, while the freight shares of the East Coast and Gulf ports would increase. By how much it has been not easy to measure or predict so far, but this study attempted to define some of the key parameters in the measurement. As well as several relevant background topics, both the demand- and supply-side versions of the National Interstate Economic Model, have been applied for the measurement of economic impacts. U.S. port authorities and policy makers at the local and national levels who respond and develop plans for coping with the new realities of the Panama Canal are able to understand the extent to which changes in shippers’ and land-mode transporters’ behaviors would undermine the logistics and the costs of their activities. Therefore, this study is important for a diverse spectrum of port development strategies in the U.S. to respond to the Canal expansion.     

Total oil spill costs and compensations

Although counteracting environmental programmes and policies have been strengthened, large oil spills still occur at irregular intervals. The total oil spill costs and their compensations have attracted much interest from various parties, such as local stakeholders, and state and federal governments. This paper addresses five major cost categories whose aggregations are expected to cover the overall direct and indirect costs after the release of an oil spill. Among them, research costs should not be neglected, since they tend to be high if public attention has been drawn to the case. Through an examination of the relationship between the total oil spill costs and their admissible claims, we found that:

1. admissible claims do not cover the overall costs of the oil spill, and
2. admissible claims cannot be compensated in full in the case of large spills.

Clearly, a sound oil spill contingency management aims to minimize both the environmental impacts of areas most at risk and the total oil spill costs. In this paper an economic model for measuring environmental damages following an oil spill is addressed and applied to the Prestige case which happened to be the worst oil pollution in the history of Spain. The model indicates how an ideally a priori economic evaluation may intuitively help managers to make informed as well as fast decisions in contingency cases.     

Shape Optimization of Elliptical Road Containers Due to Liquid Load in Steady-State Turning

A numerical analysis of liquid load in elliptical road containers undergoing a steady-state turning manoeuvre is presented for containers of unrestricted size and for containers of fixed capacity. The liquid load is expressed in terms of the horizontal and vertical forces and the overturning moment created by these forces around the middle bottom point of the container. The moment is obtained by integrating the liquid free-surface equation and using numerical calculation of the resulting expressions. An optimization study with an objective to minimize the peak overturning moment is performed on containers of fixed capacity to identify the optimal height/width ratio of the container. The results of this investigation being of a general nature, i.e. with no restriction for an application, are particularly intended for road tankers under a steady turning manoeuvre, where they can be applied with high degree of accuracy.     

Benthic community patterns reflect water column processes in the Northeast Water polynya (Greenland)

Benthic community patterns were investigated in the Northeast Water polynya (Greenland) during the summers of 1992 and 1993 to elucidate to what extent the bottom fauna is influenced by the dynamics of the overlying water. Five different fractions of the benthos (foraminiferans, nematodes, polychaetes, peracarid crustaceans, and epibenthic megafauna), ranging in average adult body size over 6 orders of magnitude (from about 100 μm to about 10 cm), were sampled quantitatively at 69 stations in water depths from 40 to 515 m. Total abundances of nematodes, polychaetes and peracarid crustaceans were found to be primarily correlated with parameters characterizing the potential benthic food supply (water column pigment and nitrate concentrations, sediment bound pigments and sediment biological activity), whereas abundances of foraminiferans and megabenthos were largely associated with seabed properties. Four benthic zones were distinguished by separately analyzing the faunistic composition and distribution of the five community fractions for Ob Bank, Western Westwind Trough, Eastern Westwind Trough, and Belgica Trough. This pattern was shown principally to reflect pelagic regimes differing in surface water hydrography, ice cover and euphotic productivity. This is the first time that a synoptic study of several benthic community portions spanning such a range in sizes and life styles has been performed in a polar shelf ecosystem. Our results indicate that abundances as well as composition of Arctic benthos are largely influenced by mesoscale pelagic processes, and thus provide further evidence for the importance of the benthic-pelagic coupling in high latitude seas.     

Risk and return of U.S. water transportation stocks over time and over bull and bear market conditions

The aim of this paper is to investigate the behaviour of water transportation company stock returns in the U.S. stock exchanges from 1985 to 1994 in order to determine whether the systematic risk of this industry is different from that of the 'average' company in the market, whether it has changed over the ten year period, over bull and bear market conditions, and whether there is a firm 'size' effect in the industry. In the context of the Capital Asset Pricing Model (Capm), we find that the systematic risk of the shipping industry return is not different from that of the 'average' company. It is also found that the covariance of water transportation companies with respect to the overall stock market return did not change over the ten year period although it appears that it has changed over normal upward/downward market movements. There is also reasonable evidence that the intercept of the equation might have changed over normal upward/downward market movements. Finally, we document contradictory evidence regarding the size effect; during the period 1985-1989 we find small companies to have significantly higher returns and risk while during the period 1990-1994 medium size companies tend to have higher risk than small and large firms, which is not however compensated by higher returns.     

The role of professional associations in shipping

This article is in three parts. The first covers the historical development of qualifying associations. The second covers the particular role of maritime institutions that include The Royal Institution of Naval Architects, The Institute of Marine Engineering Science and Technology and The Nautical Institute. The third and final section considers the future for maritime professional associations in the context of international shipping.     

Exact Equations for Tractrix Curves Associated with Vehicle Offtracking

Vehicle offtracking behavior at low speeds is closely approximated by a geometric entity called a tractrix. This paper presents differential equations for generalized coordinates of a planar multibody vehicle model based on tractrix behavior. The equations are exact, can be used with any type of input path, are valid for forward and backward movements, and are much simpler than previously published formulations used to compute transient offtracking. The differential equations can be integrated using conventional numerical integration algorithms to obtain plots of the low-speed tracking performance of articulated vehicles. The equations were formulated symbolically by a computer program used to analyze the kinematic and dynamic behavior of multibody systems. Example numerical results are plotted.     

Development and Deployment of Public Transport Policy and Planning in Taiwan

Over the past decade, the escalating roadway congestion and environmental deterioration due to heavy use of private vehicles have provoked the Taiwan government to realize the importance of public transport systems. Under the “carrot-and-stick” rationales, the government has formulated public transport policies and exercised a series of related initiatives by providing sufficient and higher quality of public transport services so as to attract more private vehicle users. In this paper, the planning philosophy and policy formulation of Taiwan’s public transport development are highlighted. The most important initiatives, including the Five-year Enhancement of Mass Transportation Program and the upgrading public transport schemes in the National Development Plan are examined. Based on previous experience and lessons, we point out the most challenging issues that the government will encounter. Suggestions for the future of public transport planning are also addressed.     

Should the user pay?

The paper puts the case that historical analysis helps to understand current discussions on user-pays principles and practice. In particular, (a) it is demonstrated that the nature of funding systems is dominated by political considerations, and (b) user-pays systems lead to inadequate funding of infrastructure when politically controlled, but provide funds for expansion when “market-driven” (in pursuit of profit maximisation). The case is illustrated by reference to the experience of interregional transport infrastructure in 19th century in England and 20th century Australia. Revenue deficiencies arising from government-controlled rates can lead to the demise of private transport infrastructure. The problem is considered in the context of the history of interregional roads and railways in England between the 15th and 19th century in England and in Australia in the 19th and 20th century. The current embrace by government of the user-pays system in transport services arises from fiscal deficiencies, as much from economic philosophy. User-pays policies are part of the global re-emergence of economic rationalism since the 1970s. The lesson for other nations from Australia's experience is twofold. First, in a federal system of government, despite the efficiency benefits of user-pays in interregional land transport, fiscal and political objectives will prevail. Second, in sparsely populated and/or developing countries, deregulation of long distance road transport will make funding a national highway system a critical concern.     

Effects of information in road transport networks with recurrent congestion

This paper aims to gain more insight into the implications of information provision to drivers on the performance of road transport networks with recurrent congestion. For this purpose, a simulation program consisting of three components has been written. The first component is the traffic simulation model, the second component is the information provision mechanism, and the third component monitors the behavioural decision-making process of the drivers, which is modelled using a utility-based satisficing principle. Three types of information provision mechanisms will be considered: information based upon own-experience, after-trip information and real-time en route information. The findings in this paper, obtained in a hypothetical context, underline the important relationship betweenoverreaction, thelevel of market penetration and thequality of the information. High quality information allows a high level of market penetration, while low quality information, even when provided at low levels of market penetration, induces overreaction. Furthermore, real-time en route information is in particular beneficial during the process leading to a steady state; it reduces the variance in travel time considerably. The paper concludes with a discussion on the market potential of motorist information systems when commercially marketed.