Incorporating social interaction into hybrid choice models

The aim of this paper is to develop a methodological framework for the incorporation of social interaction effects into choice models. The developed method provides insights for modeling the effect of social interaction on the formation of psychological factors (latent variables) and on the decision-making process. The assumption is based on the fact that the way the decision maker anticipates and processes the information regarding the behavior and the choices exhibited in her/his social environment, affects her/his attitudes and perceptions, which in turn affect her/his choices. The proposed method integrates choice models with decision makers’ psychological factors and latent social interaction. The model structure is simultaneously estimated providing an improvement over sequential methods as it provides consistent and efficient estimates of the parameters. The methodology is tested within the context of a household aiming to identify the social interaction effects between teenagers and their parents regarding walking-loving behavior and then the effect of this on mode to school choice behavior. The sample consists of 9,714 participants aged from 12 to 18 years old, representing 21 % of the adolescent population of Cyprus. The findings from the case study indicate that if the teenagers anticipate that their parents are walking lovers, then this increases the probability of teenagers to be walking-lovers too and in turn to choose walking to school. Generally, the findings from the application result in: (a) improvements in the explanatory power of choice models, (b) latent variables that are statistically significant, and (c) a real-world behavioral representation that includes the social interaction effect.     

How to turn an innovative concept into a success? An application to seaport-related innovation

The main objective of this paper is ‘to assess the conditions, including policy support, under which innovative concepts have a high chance of getting adopted and being successful’. The work will start from the state-of-the-art with the following goals targeted. Firstly, to identify the paths that new innovative concepts usually follow, what key determinants are, which actors are involved, and what policy has been doing and can do. As part of this, a typology of variables is established, which will be the basis for the identification of successful adoption paths. Illustrations are provided of the performance of different innovative concepts in the seaport sector. A further goal is to propose policy recommendations, identify best practices, barriers to implementation and transferability of innovative concepts and processes. Finally, the research establishes developments needed in assessment methods and a methodological framework if innovative concepts are introduced.     

Route choice preferences: insights from Portuguese freight forwarders and truck drivers

ABSTRACT

Exploring route choice in the context of tolled alternatives can support road operators to achieve better utilization of the infrastructure, as well as maximizing revenue collection. The research presented in this paper is conducted in the context of OPTIMUM, a European Union-funded project. The research objectives include a two-component system of models that proactively calculates commercial vehicles’ toll prices. The component presented in this paper rests on the development of a route choice model that estimates the probabilities of using two alternative routes (toll road vs. national road), based on route attributes and user characteristics. To explore the usefulness of the proposed methodology a case study involving 50 truck drivers and 25 freight operators was conducted in Portugal between January 2016 and November 2017. Results from the route choice model reveal interesting insights about the role of incentives in the choice of toll roads, the perspectives of the different decision-makers and produce Values of Time for the study area.