Trust in forecasts? Correlates with ridership forecast accuracy for fixed-guideway transit projects

Transportation - The accuracy of ridership forecasts for fixed-guideway transit projects in the United States has improved in recent decades. A better understanding of the causes for this...     

Ichthyoplankton in the neritic and coastal zone of Antarctica and Subantarctic islands: A review

Since the article published by Loeb et al. [Loeb, V.J., Kellermann, A., Koubbi, P., North, A.W., White, M., 1993. Antarctic larval fish assemblages: a review. Bull. Mar. Sci. 53(2), 416–449.] about Antarctic ichthyoplankton, many surveys were carried out in different sectors of the Southern Ocean focusing on different aspects of the ecology of fish larvae. Some of these researches were conducted in the Subantarctic Kerguelen Islands and others on the continental shelf off Terre Adélie and Georges V land. Oceanographic and geographic features influence fish larvae ecology such as island mass effects, gyres, canyons. Antarctic fishes show also temporal segregation of spawning which induces temporal succession of early stage larvae. This avoids competition and probably the predation on early stages for species having few recruits. In that case, we have to understand how these larvae can deal with the match–mismatch with their preys and how they find sufficient food to survive. But our knowledge on Antarctic fish larvae is still insufficient as we do not know larvae for quite a lot of species and because of the difficulty to sample during winter.     

Fatigue life prediction of welded ship details

Ship structures are submitted to variable cyclic loading during navigation. The cyclic motion of waves induces variable and complex loadings in the structure, which could generate fatigue damage. Moreover, most of these metallic structures are welded assemblies. This technique generates local stress concentrations at the weld toe, which becomes a critical area regarding fatigue. In previous works, a methodology to predict fatigue life was developed and tested on butt-welded and cruciform joints. The present work focuses on other welded assemblies in order to extend fatigue crack initiation life evaluation to a wider range of ship details. The strategy could be split into two steps. First, a finite element calculation is performed under constant or variable amplitude loadings, in order to analyze the elastic shakedown of the structure. To characterize the material heterogeneity of the welded joint, experimental tests together with micro-hardness measurements, are performed on a simulated heat-affected zone. If there is a shakedown in the structure, a post-treatment is applied to predict the fatigue crack initiation. It is based on a two-scale damage model, initially developed by Lemaitre et al. and again includes the heterogeneity of fatigue properties. To validate this methodology, some experimental tests have been performed on welded assemblies which are typical of shipbuilding applications, using a fatigue machine. These comparisons between experimental and numerical fatigue lives are encouraging.