Route choice of cyclists in Zurich

This paper presents the first route choice model for bicyclists estimated from a large sample of GPS observations and overcomes the limitations inherent in the generally employed stated preference approach. It employs an improved mode detection algorithm for GPS post-processing to determine trips made by bicycle, which are map matched to an enriched street network. The alternatives are generated as a random sample from an exhaustive, but constrained search. Accounting for the similarity between the alternatives with the path-size factor the MNL estimates show that the elasticity with regards to trip length is nearly four times larger than that with respect to the share of bike paths. The elasticity with respect to the product of length and maximum gradient of the route is small. No other variable describing the routes had an impact. The heterogeneity of the cyclists is captured through interaction terms formulated on their average behaviour.     

Long-term trends in domestic US passenger travel: the past 110 years and the next 90

Based upon a long-term historical data set of US passenger travel, a model is estimated to project aggregate transportation trends through 2100. One of the two model components projects total mobility (passenger-km traveled) per capita based on per person GDP and the expected utility of travel mode choices (logsum). The second model component has the functional form of a logit model, which assigns the projected travel demand to competing transportation modes. An iterative procedure ensures the average amount of travel time per person to remain at a pre-specified level through modifying the estimated value of time. The outputs from this model can be used as a first-order estimate of a future benchmark against which the effectiveness of various transportation policy measures or the impact of autonomous behavioral change can be assessed.     

Reduction of VIV using suppression devices—An empirical approach

Helical strakes are known to reduce and even eliminate the oscillation amplitude of vortex-induced vibrations (VIV). This reduction will increase the fatigue life. The optimum length and position of the helical strakes for a given riser will vary with the current profile.

The purpose of the present paper is to describe how data from VIV experiments with suppressing devices like fairings and strakes can be implemented into a theoretical VIV model. The computer program is based on an empirical model for calculation of VIV. Suppression devices can be accounted for by using user-defined data for hydrodynamic coefficients, i.e. lift and damping coefficients, for the selected segments.

The effect of strakes on fatigue damage due to cross flow VIV is illustrated for a vertical riser exposed to sheared and uniform current. Comparison of measured and calculated fatigue life is performed for a model riser equipped with helical strakes. A systematic study of length of a section with strakes for a set of current profiles is done and the results are also presented.     

Methods for forecasting the market penetration of electric drivetrains in the passenger car market

Current car technologies will not solve upcoming challenges of mitigating greenhouse gas emissions in road transport. Projections of the market penetration by alternative drive train technologies are controversial regarding both forecast market shares and applied scientific methods. Accepting this latter challenge, we provide a (so far missing) overview of methods applied in this field and give some recommendations for further work. Our focus is to classify the applied methods into a convenient pattern and to analyse models from the recent scientific literature which consider the electrification of light-duty vehicles. We differentiate the following bottom-up approaches: Econometric models with disaggregated data (such as discrete choice), and agent-based simulation models. The group of top-down models are subdivided into econometric models with aggregated data (e.g. vehicle stock data), system dynamics, as well as integrated assessment models with general equilibrium models. It becomes obvious that some methods have a stronger methodological background whereas others require comprehensive data sets or can be combined more flexibly with other methods. Even though there is no dominant method, we can identify a trend in the literature towards data-driven hybrid approaches, which considers micro and macro aspects influencing the market penetration of electric vehicles.     

Replacement of very large and ultra large crude carriers

The technical and economic conditions of World War II that led to the building of Liberty vessels and compared with those that led to the building of the present very large and ultralarge crude carries (VLCCs and ULCCs) for the purpose of revealing similarities that could indicate when a massive replacement of the existing large tankers is to be expected. The Liberties were replaced within a relatively short time by ships of twice their efficiency and in a situation where transport demand was growing and insurance premiums for old vessels greatly increased. International rules and regulations played on great role. The development of tankers has not produced ships that from an economical point of view are markedly better than previously existing vessels; the demand for tankers has not increased during the last 15 years; the insurance coasts of existing tankers have increased only moderately; and the introduction of new international and national rules for tanker design have made it worthwhile to conserve existing vessels. Although there is a similarity in age distribution between the Liberties and the VLCCs and ULCCs, the situation of the two categories of vessel is otherwise so different that a demand for a VLCC and ULCC replacement of the same magnitude as was experienced for the Liberties cannot be expected.