Risk and return of U.S. water transportation stocks over time and over bull and bear market conditions

The aim of this paper is to investigate the behaviour of water transportation company stock returns in the U.S. stock exchanges from 1985 to 1994 in order to determine whether the systematic risk of this industry is different from that of the 'average' company in the market, whether it has changed over the ten year period, over bull and bear market conditions, and whether there is a firm 'size' effect in the industry. In the context of the Capital Asset Pricing Model (Capm), we find that the systematic risk of the shipping industry return is not different from that of the 'average' company. It is also found that the covariance of water transportation companies with respect to the overall stock market return did not change over the ten year period although it appears that it has changed over normal upward/downward market movements. There is also reasonable evidence that the intercept of the equation might have changed over normal upward/downward market movements. Finally, we document contradictory evidence regarding the size effect; during the period 1985-1989 we find small companies to have significantly higher returns and risk while during the period 1990-1994 medium size companies tend to have higher risk than small and large firms, which is not however compensated by higher returns.     

Efficient pricing of ships in the dry bulk sector of the shipping industry

The aim of this paper was to investigate the validity of the Efficient Market Hypothesis in conjunction with Rational Expectations in the formation of dry bulk ship prices over the period January 1976-December 1997. Tests for market efficiency include those of orthogonality and unpredictability of excess returns on investments and tests based on the Vector Autoregressive models proposed by Campbell and Shiller. The latter methodology is extended further to a 3-variable Vector Autoregressive model, which is applicable to real assets with limited economic life. Results indicate that prices for newbuilding and second-hand vessels are not determined efficiently in the sense of Fama. Failure of the Efficient Market Hypothesis in the formation of ship prices is explained by the existence of timevarying risk premia, which relate excess returns to investors' perceptions of risk. These are modelled through the Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity in mean (GARCH-M) models. The results have important implications for shipping investment strategies, both in the newbuilding and second-hand markets.     

International comparison of market risks across shipping-related industries

This paper compares the behaviour of shipping and shipping-related company stock returns to reveal whether systematic risk differs from the average in the market and across sub-sectors of the maritime industry. Following an extensive collection of information through a postal questionnaire survey, 108 publicly listed shipping and shipping-related companies, across stock exchanges of the world, are classified by sector according to their core business activity. The Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM) is employed for the period 1996-1999 to model stock returns and measure sector βs (systematic risk). Stock returns over the period are mostly negative. The systematic risks of the Drilling and Offshore sectors are significantly higher than those of all other sectors, but are not different from each other. There is no significant difference between the systematic risks of the Bulk, Tanker, Container and Ferry sectors. The systematic risk of the Cruise sector lies somewhere between these two groups. There is no difference in the systematic risk of companies that diversified within shipping or shipping-related industries when compared to companies that diversified in other areas. Over all companies in the sample, βis lower than the market average, and so are the βs of the Ferry, Tanker, Bulk, Container and Yard sectors. Only the βof the Drilling sector is statistically higher than one, while the Cruise, Diversified and Offshore sectors are statistically one.     

Shipping freight derivatives: a survey of recent evidence

In an industry that is characterized by highly volatile prices, seasonality, strong business cycles, cyclicality and capital intensiveness, risk management is extremely important. Ship-owners and charterers face enormous risks, which emanate from fluctuations in freight rates, bunker prices, interest rates, foreign exchange rates and vessel values. These risks substantially affect the interplay between revenue and cost. Modern risk management techniques, involve the use of financial derivatives products, some of which have been developed exclusively for protecting (hedging) against the adverse price fluctuations of the aforementioned sources of risk in shipping. By using derivatives products, ship-owners and charterers can secure (stabilize) the level of their future income or costs and thus reduce uncertainty and unforeseen volatility of their cash-flow. To explore the importance of hedging freight rate risk in shipping operations, a survey of recent empirical evidence that has appeared in economic studies has been conducted. Developments over the past 20 years have been fast, with certain amount of research carried, which has helped to understand better the special features of these derivatives markets. They are all summarized in the current study, which can provide the stepping stone for further work in the area of shipping derivatives and risk management in shipping.     

Highly disaggregrated models of seaborne trade. An empirical model for bilateral dry-cargo trade flows in the World economy

The aim of this paper is to estimate an empirical model of bilateral dry-cargo seaborne import flows in the international economy. Seaborne trade elasticities are estimated for the first time, utilizing the Constant Ratio of Elasticities of Substitution Homogeneous/Homothetic (CRESH) function, a function very rarely used in the past. Highly disaggregated data on volumes of seaborne trade, published by the UN, distinguish between five types of cargo according to the type of ship used for its transportation, and 30 trading regions according to the major sea-lancs used by ships internationally. Multistage budgeting is employed to make the problem of estimation tractable. An empirical model for dry-bulk cargo is estimated based on the CRESH function. Estimation of bilateral export price elasticities enables comparison of the degree of competition in each import market over export regions, and amongst import markets themselves. Risk-averse ship owners may utilize such a comparison to operate in world shiplanes with low degree of competition.     

Shipping freight derivatives: a survey of recent evidence

In an industry that is characterized by highly volatile prices, seasonality, strong business cycles, cyclicality and capital intensiveness, risk management is extremely important. Ship-owners and charterers face enormous risks, which emanate from fluctuations in freight rates, bunker prices, interest rates, foreign exchange rates and vessel values. These risks substantially affect the interplay between revenue and cost. Modern risk management techniques, involve the use of financial derivatives products, some of which have been developed exclusively for protecting (hedging) against the adverse price fluctuations of the aforementioned sources of risk in shipping. By using derivatives products, ship-owners and charterers can secure (stabilize) the level of their future income or costs and thus reduce uncertainty and unforeseen volatility of their cash-flow. To explore the importance of hedging freight rate risk in shipping operations, a survey of recent empirical evidence that has appeared in economic studies has been conducted. Developments over the past 20 years have been fast, with certain amount of research carried, which has helped to understand better the special features of these derivatives markets. They are all summarized in the current study, which can provide the stepping stone for further work in the area of shipping derivatives and risk management in shipping.     

Beta comparisons across industries—a Water transportation industry perspective

This paper undertakes a comparative analysis of the stock market perception of risk in US listed water transportation companies and seven other main sectors, air transportation; rail transportation; trucks; electricity; gas; petroleum refining; and real estate over the period July 1984-June 1995. This is done by employing the Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM) to model the stock returns of each industry and hence compare their betas (systematic risk). Multiequation Regression Models are used for estimation. The findings suggest that the water transportation industry exhibits significantly lower market risk than the average stock and the rail transportation industry, significantly higher systematic risk than the real estate industry, while its systematic risk is insignificantly different from the rest of the industries. These results are useful to investors basing their decisions on relative market exposures to risk in different industries.     

Finite element modelling and strength analysis of hold No. 1 of bulk carriers

Bulk carriers are subject to SOLAS regulations concerning the structural integrity of hold No. 1. SOLAS Chapter XII Regulation 6 mandates that the transverse watertight bulkhead between the two foremost holds and double bottom of the foremost hold shall have sufficient strength to withstand flooding of the first hold. This regulation applies to all single-skin bulk carriers of 150 m in length and upwards constructed before 1 July 1999. IACS provides rules for the construction of these areas of such vessels in order to comply with SOLAS Chapter XII. This paper presents a methodology for modelling hold No. 1 of bulk carriers using finite elements in order to assess the structural integrity of these areas under the loads prescribed by IACS. Results from respective nonlinear analyses using IACS loads are also presented.