A probabilistic framework for weather-based rerouting and delay estimations within an Airspace Planning model

In this paper, we develop a novel severe weather-modeling paradigm to be applied within the context of a large-scale Airspace Planning and collaborative decision-making model in order to reroute flights with respect to a specified probability threshold of encountering severe weather, subject to collision safety, airline equity, and sector workload considerations. This approach serves as an alternative to the current practice adopted by the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) of adjusting flight routes in accordance with the guidelines specified in the National Playbook. Our innovative contributions in this paper include (a) the concept of “Probability-Nets” and the development of discretized representations of various weather phenomena that affect aviation operations; (b) the integration of readily accessible severe weather probabilities from existing weather forecast data provided by the National Weather Service; (c) the generation of flight plans that circumvent severe weather phenomena with specified probability threshold levels, and (d) a probabilistic delay assessment methodology for evaluating planned flight routes that might encounter potentially disruptive weather along its trajectory. Additionally, we conduct an economic benefit analysis using a k-means clustering mechanism in concert with our delay assessment methodology in order to evaluate delay costs and system disruptions associated with variations in probability-net refinement-based information. Computational results and insights are presented based on flight test cases derived from the Enhanced Traffic Management System data provided by the FAA and using weather scenarios derived from the Model Output Statistics forecast data provided by the National Weather Service.     

Sense of Place as a Source of Tension in Canada’s West Coast Energy Conflicts

Canada’s west coast has been a hotspot of environmental conflict, most recently in defense of climate action and natural places under threat by energy development. This study examined sense of place as a source of tension in conflicts sparked by two energy proposals. The Bute Inlet run-of-river hydroelectric project would power British Columbia’s remote Central Coast, and the Trans Mountain pipeline expansion would transport bitumen from Alberta’s oil sands to tankers for export. Surveys, interviews, and mapping were used to investigate the depth and character of participants’ sense of favorite places and places expected to be affected by the projects, with appreciation, concern, and responsibility for nature as organizing themes. We discovered a regional, nature-centric sense of place on the south coast, and a sense of place among Albertans linked to that province’s oil and gas economy and its reputation as Canada’s chief breadwinner. Ties to natural places were found to underpin environmental advocacy by tapping into deep place connections as well as place connections conveyed through network ideologies and the protests themselves. We outline for consideration key characteristics of a regional sense of place, and offer ways to mitigate place-based economy versus environment conflicts.     

Spatial aspects of shoreline management in Puget sound reconsidered

Abstract

Shoreline management in the state of Washington attempts to provide opportunities for both urban and rural interests to express themselves. Local governments have wide latitude in determining the spatial patterns which they deem desirable. The state provides general guidelines to insure that local governments adhere to the policy of the act. On shores designated as shores of state‐wide significance the state has reserved the right to protect state interests over local interests. Since the Washington State Shoreline Management Act generally covers only 200 ft inland from the ordinary high tide line, and each local government develops its own management program, it is doubtful that nodal or spread development on a regional level in Puget Sound can be meaningfully addressed under its provisions. There may, however, be evidence of nucleation or spread patterns at the local level.