Transit assignment under crowded conditions

This paper presents a transit assignment algorithm for crowded networks. Both congestion in vehicles and queuing at stations are explicitly taken into account in predicting passenger flows for a fixed pattern of origin-destination trip demands. The overflow effects due to insufficient capacity of transit lines are considered to be concentrated at transit stations, while the in-vehicle congestion effects (or discomforts) are considered to be dependent on in-vehicle passenger volume. Overflow delay at a transit station is dependent on the number of excess passengers required to wait for the next transit car. We use a logit model to determine the split between passengers that chose to wait for the next transit car and passengers that chose to board on the alternative transit lines. The proposed algorithm predicts how passenger will choose their optimal routes under both queuing and crowded conditions.     

A study of passenger discomfort measures at the Hong Kong mass transit railway system

This note investigates the important attributes relating to the crowding effects at the Mass Transit Railway (MTR) stations in Hong Kong. Data was collected at two sets of three MTR stations to study the responses of the passengers due to the discomfort at crowded vehicles and platforms. Stated preference surveys were used to study the effects of passenger discomfort measures.     

Vulnerability analysis for large-scale and congested road networks with demand uncertainty

To assess the vulnerability of congested road networks, the commonly used full network scan approach is to evaluate all possible scenarios of link closure using a form of traffic assignment. This approach can be computationally burdensome and may not be viable for identifying the most critical links in large-scale networks. In this study, an “impact area” vulnerability analysis approach is proposed to evaluate the consequences of a link closure within its impact area instead of the whole network. The proposed approach can significantly reduce the search space for determining the most critical links in large-scale networks. In addition, a new vulnerability index is introduced to examine properly the consequences of a link closure. The effects of demand uncertainty and heterogeneous travellers’ risk-taking behaviour are explicitly considered. Numerical results for two different road networks show that in practice the proposed approach is more efficient than traditional full scan approach for identifying the same set of critical links. Numerical results also demonstrate that both stochastic demand and travellers’ risk-taking behaviour have significant impacts on network vulnerability analysis, especially under high network congestion and large demand variations. Ignoring their impacts can underestimate the consequences of link closures and misidentify the most critical links.     

Short-term Hourly Traffic Forecasts using Hong Kong Annual Traffic Census

The need for acquiring the current-year traffic data is a problem for transport planners since such data may not be available for on-going transport studies. A method is proposed in this paper to predict hourly traffic flows up to and into the near future, using historical data collected from the Hong Kong Annual Traffic Census (ATC). Two parametric and two non-parametric models have been employed and evaluated in this study. The results show that the non-parametric models (Non-Parametric Regression (NPR) and Gaussian Maximum Likelihood (GML)) were more promising for predicting hourly traffic flows at the selected ATC station. Further analysis encompassing 87 ATC stations revealed that the NPR is likely to react to unexpected changes more effectively than the GML method, while the GML model performs better under steady traffic flows. Taking into consideration the dynamic nature of the common traffic patterns in Hong Kong and the advantages/disadvantages of the various models, the NPR model is recommended for predicting the hourly traffic flows in that region.     

The effects of information bias and riding frequency on noise annoyance to a new railway extension in Hong Kong

We investigate how two non-acoustic factors, information bias and riding frequency, can affect the annoyance response of an urban population to noise created by a new railway line. The study shows that information bias is asymmetrical. Respondents receiving only information on positive measures taken by the authority to reduce noise emission are more tolerant of the noise impact, but those receiving only critical views tend to be more annoyed because they feel that not all measures to reduce noise have been employed. Additionally people who use the line frequently are more tolerant to the noise impact than those who do not. Information bias seems to have a temporary masking effect over riding frequency lasting for a few weeks after railway opening. This suggest that whilst free flow of information provided by the authority can help alleviate annoyance response, encouraging the people affected to make use of the new infrastructure may be useful to reduce public resistance and noise annoyance.     

The relations between dry port characteristics and regional port-hinterland settings: findings for a global sample of dry ports

This paper aims at defining generic characteristics of dry ports by carrying out an analysis using a large sample of dry ports from around the world. The dataset includes details on 107 inland terminals worldwide. All dry ports in the database have been selected from studies in the extant literature before being shortlisted to fit our research scope. Data collected include terminologies used, actors driving the development, terminal throughput, total area, services provided and the relation with the corresponding seaport(s). Using statistical analysis, the paper examines how dry port parameters are influenced by (1) a different terminal set up, like sea-driven and land-driven development, developed and developing system, dry port functions; (2) specifications of the seaport with which the dry port is connected, i.e. seaport traffic, connectivity, utilization, etc. and (3) the transport leg linking dry ports and seaports. The findings could be applied to the planning and development of inland nodes from the perspectives of different stakeholders.     

Reliable container line supply chains

Container line supply chains, based on a near-frictionless international transport belief, have contributed to economic prosperity and also rendered themselves uniquely vulnerable to various risks. 9/11 terrorists attacks, the lock-out of American West Ports and the global breakout of SARS disease have gradually shown that a) the safety and reliability in the chains are facing an unprecedented challenge and b) traditional engineeringbased risk assessment methods are inadequate to deal with the threats from variational environments, especially in the era of terrorism rampancy. The purpose of this paper is, therefore, to develop a conceptual risk assessment model for container line supply chains based on a modified Formal Safety Assessment (FSA) methodology that takes risks from vulnerability rather than only hazards into account. It gives particular emphasis on the analysis of the threats with a high level of uncertainty from both safety and economic viewpoints. The advantages of the vulnerability-based risk analysis approach to the hazard-based one are clarified and both engineering-based and managerial risk assessments are also discussed.     

Modeling the interactions between car and bicycle in heterogeneous traffic

In this paper, a new cellular automata model is proposed to simulate the car and bicycle heterogeneous traffic on urban road. To capture the complex interactions between these two types of vehicles, a novel occupancy rule is adopted in the proposed model to consider the variable lateral distances of mixed vehicular traffic. Based on massive simulations, microscopic fundamental diagrams under different bicycle densities are devised. With these, the bicycle's spilling behavior is then investigated and discussed. In order to reflect the interference of a bicycle on a car, the interference transformation from friction state to block state is modeled explicitly. Finally, different simulation results under different occupancy rules indicate that the constant and fixed occupancy rule adopted in the previous studies might lead to overestimation of car flux in the heterogeneous traffic flows with different bicycle densities. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Special issue: Importance of public transport

The transport demand in most major cities around the world can only be met with a high‐quality public transport system. The requirements on bus, rail, underground and tram systems are manifold with reliability and efficiency as the key factors. The service operating hours and the size of the network are often extended in order to serve the needs better. Further, most metropolitan areas are trying to provide more incentives for citizens to leave the car at home and use the local transit systems instead. The reasons are well known. Not only does a public transport system only make economical sense if it is well used, but most urban areas with a high car‐dependency face at least three major problems; safety, congestion, and pollution (noise and air pollution, land separation, etc.). It is generally recognised that to decrease car usage and to increase public transport usage a stick & carrot approach is needed. The London congestion‐charging scheme is an example since all revenues collected by the scheme are put into the improvement of bus and underground services.