A selection method of offshore production systems considering uncertainties

Journal of Marine Science and Technology - The development of an offshore deepwater oilfield is a complex and risky task. One core problem in this project is the selection of a production system...     

Integrating congestion pricing,transit subsidies and mode choice

We model and analyze optimal (welfare maximizing) prices and design of transport services in a bimodal context. Car congestion and transit design are simultaneously introduced and consumers choose based on the full price they perceive. The optimization variables are the congestion toll, the transit fare (and hence the level of subsidies) and transit frequency. We obtain six main results: (i) the optimal car-transit split is generally different from the total cost minimizing one; (ii) optimal congestion and transit price are interdependent and have an optimal frequency attached; (iii) the optimal money price difference together with the optimal frequency yield the optimal modal split; (iv) if this modal split is used in traditional stand-alone formulations – where each mode is priced independently–resulting congestion tolls and transit subsidies and fares are consistent with the optimal money price difference; (v) self-financing of the transport sector is feasible; and (vi) investment in car infrastructure induces an increase in generalized cost for all public transport users.     

Air holding problem solving with reinforcement learning to reduce airspace congestion

The Air Holding Problem Module is proposed as a decision support system to help air traffic controllers in their daily air traffic flow management. This system is developed using an Artificial Intelligence technique known as multiagent systems to organize and optimize the solutions for controllers to handle traffic flow in Brazilian airspace. In this research, the air holding problem is modeled with reinforcement learning, and a solution is proposed and applied in two case studies of the Brazilian airspace. The system can suggest more precise and realistic actions based upon past situations and knowledge of the professionals and forecast the impact of restrictive measures at the local and/or overall level. The first case study shows performance improvements in traffic flows between 8 and 47% at the local level up to 49% at the overall level. In the second case study, performance improvements were between 15 and 57% at the local level and between 41 and 48% at the overall level. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Modeling schedule recovery processes in transit operations for bus arrival time prediction

Many existing algorithms for bus arrival time prediction assume that buses travel at free‐flow speed in the absence of congestion. As a result, delay incurred at one stop would propagate to downstream stops at the same magnitude. In reality, skilled bus operators often constantly adjust their speeds to keep their bus on schedule. This paper formulates a Markov chain model for bus arrival time prediction that explicitly captures the behavior of bus operators in actively pursuing schedule recovery. The model exhibits some desirable properties in capturing the schedule recovery process. It guarantees provision of the schedule information if the probability of recovering from the current schedule deviation is sufficiently high. The proposed model can be embedded into a transit arrival time estimation model for transit information systems that use both real‐time and schedule information. It also has the potential to be used as a decision support tool to determine when dynamic or static information should be used.     

On the relationship between airport pricing models

Airport pricing papers can be divided into two approaches. In the traditional approach the demand for airport services depends on airport charges and on congestion costs of both passengers and airlines; the airline market is not formally modeled. In the vertical-structure approach instead, airports provide an input for an airline oligopoly and it is the equilibrium of this downstream market which determines the airports’ demand. We prove, analytically, that the traditional approach to airport pricing is valid if air carriers have no market power, i.e. airlines are atomistic or they behave as price takers (perfect competition) and have constant marginal operational costs. When carriers have market power, this approach may result in a surplus measure that falls short of giving a true measure of social surplus. Furthermore, its use prescribes a traffic level that is, for given capacity, smaller than the socially optimal level. When carriers have market power and consequently both airports and airlines behave strategically, a vertical-structure approach appears a more reasonable approach to airport pricing issues.     

A multioutput cost function for the services of Spanish ports' infrastructure

A long run multioutput cost function for the infrastructure services of Spanish ports is estimated using 286 observations on 26 ports during 11 years. Cargo specific marginal costs and the degree of economies of scale and scope are calculated up to a port level. Results show that liquid bulk and non-containerised general cargo present the lowest and largest marginal cost, respectively. Increasing returns to scale are present in general and for each and every port. A scope analysis indicates that port specialisation is not appropriate from the viewpoint of infrastructure.     

Present-day biosiliceous sedimentation in the northwestern Ross Sea, Antarctica

Sedimentological and oceanographic inferences have been obtained for the NW Ross Sea using sedimentary ²¹⁰Pb as a tracer together with determinations of biogenic silica and organic carbon. ²¹⁰Pb chronologies give apparent accumulation rates ranging between 14 and 80 mg cm⁻² yr⁻¹ (0.02–0.12 cm yr⁻¹) in the shelf basins. Even if a profile of ²¹⁰Pb is present in sediments from the top of the banks, here sediment accumulation rate is practically null, and physical mixing is responsible for the downward transport of fine particles and associated ²¹⁰Pb. The accuracy of ²¹⁰Pb-derived accumulation rates is discussed with respect to ¹⁴C dates. The annual rate of biogenic accumulation from ²¹⁰Pb appears to be ca. 8 times higher than the value derived using radiocarbon. Bioturbation is probably responsible for the discrepancy but also temporal and spatial variations in opal accumulation play a key-role. Contrasting measured and expected inventories of ²¹⁰Pb, a residence time of about 50 years has been tentatively estimated for the water in the NW Ross Sea. Furthermore, the data suggest that the pattern of present-day biosiliceous sediment accumulation in the Ross Sea is mainly driven by biogenic silica production in the water column, the SW area being the most productive part of the Ross Sea, by high sediment accumulation rate which enhances the seabed preservation, and by hydrodynamics, which is so effective to resuspend fine biogenic particles from the topographic highs. Resuspended particles are then deposited onto the flanks. The material which accumulates in the central part of the basins derives basically from primary production and settling through the water column.