Improving the coexistence of offshore wind farms and shipping: an international comparison of navigational risk assessment processes

The continued growth and evolution of the offshore wind industry, and the emergence of other novel marine uses such as wave and tidal generators, have upped the ante for spatial planners, as well as consenting and approval authorities in various coastal states. These stakeholders rely on processes such as navigational risk assessments (NRAs) to balance safety and efficiency requirements and to make optimal decisions over use of space. Given the increasingly complex and crowded seascape, however, there are some apprehensions about potential shortcomings in these NRA processes. There is also some concern that these inadequacies may lead to unsafe or inefficient marine spatial use. To understand how NRA processes can be improved further, a literature review is conducted, followed by a survey of respondents who are involved in the planning, consenting and/or approval of offshore wind farms across seven different countries. A summary of the NRA processes in these seven countries is presented, and several shortcomings are identified. Based on the findings of the survey, a list of recommendations is presented to enhance existing NRA processes—and to improve the coexistence of shipping and offshore wind farms (OWFs).     

Design and Testing of an Underwater Microscopewith Variable Objective Lens for the Study of Benthic Communities

Monitoring the ecology and physiology of corals, sediments, planktons, and microplastic at a suitable spatial resolution is of great importance in oceanic scien...     

基于整体规划框架的区域综合货运规划建模方法研究

区域一体化快速发展背景下，如何系统谋划区域综合交通运输规划，使经济、土地/空间及交通与环境协调发展，是实现区域可持续发展亟需深入研究的课题。因此，本文统筹考虑经济、 土地/空间及交通和环境要素的动态交互关系，提出大区域综合货运整体规划模型的设计与开发方法。利用PECAS(Production, Exchange and Consumption Allocation System)理论框架分析生产者、消费者、交换商品、土地(空间)和运输方式之间的交互关系，并通过PECAS的集计经济流表设计模型结构，构建相应的宏观经济预测、社会经济活动空间分配、空间开发以及交通运输需求预测这4个模块，模拟区域社会经济活动增长及其空间分布与土地/空间开发及综合交通需求时变等特征之间的互动耦合关系。在社会经济发展目标、土地空间和环境等约束条件下，通过构建空间经济模型和综合交通一体化网络分配模型，实现面向多货品和多方式的综合货运整体规划建模方法，以辅助区域产业布局、土地利用与综合交通系统的整体规划。本文以长江经济带为研究案例，基于相关数据构建相应的大区域综合货运整体规划模型，分析评估2012—2035年模型预测结果。结果显示，预测得到的综合交通年平均日货运量拟合优度超过85%，分担率误差低于1%， 验证了本文建模方法的有效性。     

Seventy Minutes Plus or Minus 10 — A Review of Travel Time Budget Studies

Abstract

This paper provides a comprehensive review of travel-time budget (TTB) studies in the literature for about the past four decades. Starting with the concept of TTBs, it discusses both the studies that support the existence of TTB and also those that deem the concept to be unfounded. Sociodemographic variables and their relation to TTB are also discussed briefly. However, as past studies use different data sources, survey techniques, and methodology for analysis, cross comparison of studies is not possible. Most importantly, the underlying cause of the regularity that is found at an aggregate level is still not known. The idea of TTB is important because, if it exists, it would mean that the total time spent on travelling per person per day will remain unchanged in spite of all improvements to transport. TTB has immense implications for transport policies and it is usually ignored. The paper also explores the available theoretical explanation of this concept, past research gaps and new analysis potentials. Recent directions in TTB studies are also discussed together with the potential use of multiday multiyear panel data in TTB research to explore the phenomenon better than before.     

Modal shift from road haulage to short sea shipping: a systematic literature review and research directions

ABSTRACT

Modal shift from road haulage to short sea shipping (SSS) has been advocated by authorities and researchers for more than two decades. This paper provides a review of literature on modal shift and pinpoints paths for future research on topics in six categories: (1) factors influencing SSS competitiveness, (2) the policy-oriented perspective, (3) environmental legislation, (4) SSS performance, (5) port characteristics, and (6) the multi-agent perspective. In particular, we propose first, in evaluating the performance of SSS versus road haulage in different trade corridors, three performance-related dimensions – the economic dimension (e.g. external costs), the environmental dimension, and the dimension of service quality – should be considered. Second, researchers should use rich, real-world, numerical data and operational research techniques to identify the relative importance of individual drivers and barriers for a modal shift from road haulage to SSS. Third proposed direction is related to assessing which groups of actors certain policies should target. In doing so, researchers should extend their policy-related focus beyond the European Union, which has long encompassed the major geopolitical scope of research on the modal shift. Fourth, to moderate the adverse impact of environmental legislation on SSS, strategic solutions need to be identified. Fifth, we also suggest that the influence of contingencies, particularly port strikes and cyberattacks, on SSS operations and approaches for managing them should be investigated. Sixth, the economic and financial advantages of coordination and alliance for each transport chain agent need to be evaluated.     

Hybrid artificial neural network and locally weighted regression models for lane-based short-term urban traffic flow forecasting

ABSTRACT

In recent years, there has been considerable research interest in short-term traffic flow forecasting. However, forecasting models offering a high accuracy at a fine temporal resolution (e.g. 1 or 5?min) and lane level are still rare. In this study, a combination of genetic algorithm, neural network and locally weighted regression is used to achieve optimal prediction under various input and traffic settings. The genetically optimized artificial neural network (GA-ANN) and locally weighted regression (GA-LWR) models are developed and tested, with the former forecasting traffic flow every 5-min within a 30-min period and the latter for forecasting traffic flow of a particular 5-min period of each for four lanes of an urban arterial road in Beijing, China. In particular, for morning peak and off-peak traffic flow prediction, the GA-ANN 5-min traffic flow model results in average errors of 3–5% and most 95th percentile errors of 7–14% for each of the four lanes; for the peak and off-peak time traffic flow predictions, the GA-LWR 5-min traffic flow model results in average errors of 2–4% and most 95th percentile errors are lower than 10% for each of the four lanes. When compared to previous models that usually offer average errors greater than 6–15%, such empirical findings should be of interest to and instrumental for transportation authorities to incorporate in their city- or state-wide Advanced Traveller Information Systems (ATIS).     

Development of 19-plex Y STR system and polymorphism studies in Pakistani population

For the development of 19-plex Y STR system and polymorphism studies in locl ethnic populations sixteen markers of non-recombining regions (NRY) of Y chromosome, which show high power of discrimination among individuals, were selected in this study. Blood samples (600) were e.ollected from the males of three most common castes of Pakistani population (Arnin, Awan and Rajput) with different parent lineages. Three markers (DYS385a/b, DYS389Ⅰ/Ⅱ and YCAⅡa/b) among 16 Y STRs are double-targeted regions of the Y chromosome and thus provide two polymorphie peaks for each respective primer set. These 16 Y-STRs were developed into Megaplex system for simultaneous amplification of all markers within the population. The overall power of discrimination observed in focused populations was 60.5%, 66.5% and 55% in Rajput, Awan and Arain casts respectively. This discrimination power will be helpful in haman identification for forensic casework studies including sexual assaults and paternity testing.