The changing accuracy of traffic forecasts

Researchers have improved travel demand forecasting methods in recent decades but invested relatively little to understand their accuracy. A major barrier has been the lack of necessary data. We compiled the largest known database of traffic forecast accuracy, composed of forecast traffic, post-opening counts and project attributes for 1291 road projects in the United States and Europe. We compared measured versus forecast traffic and identified the factors associated with accuracy. We found measured traffic is on average 6% lower than forecast volumes, with a mean absolute deviation of 17% from the forecast. Higher volume roads, higher functional classes, shorter time spans, and the use of travel models all improved accuracy. Unemployment rates also affected accuracy—traffic would be 1% greater than forecast on average, rather than 6% lower, if we adjust for higher unemployment during the post-recession years (2008 to 2014). Forecast accuracy was not consistent over time: more recent forecasts were more accurate, and the mean deviation changed direction. Traffic on projects that opened from the 1980s through early 2000s was higher on average than forecast, while traffic on more recent projects was lower on average than forecast. This research provides insight into the degree of confidence that planners and policy makers can expect from traffic forecasts and suggests that we should view forecasts as a range of possible outcomes rather than a single expected outcome.

     

Diagnosis and excision of breast multi-focal lesions by ultrasound-guided vacuum-assisted biopsy: a comparative evaluation

Objective To compare and evaluate the efficacy of diagnosis and excision for appropriately selected breast multi-focal lesions and solitary lesion by ultrasound-guided vacuum-assisted biopsy (UGVAB). Methods Among 392 appropriately selected patients, 187 patients with multi-focal lesions and 205 patients with solitary lesion were treated by the 8-gauge UGVAB from May 2007 to June 2009. All lesions were removed as completely as possible. The patients with benign pathology underwent physical and ultrasound examinations at one week and 6 months after procedure. Results During the procedure, only three patients had vasovagal syncope and twenty others complained of other intraoperative discomfort. An accurate pathological diagnosis was obtained in all lesions. There was no apparent false-negative result among the 696 lesions with benign pathology at a follow-up of 6 months after procedure. The rates of malignant or premalignant pathology, postoperative complications and residual lesions in patients with multi-focal lesions were higher than those in patients with solitary lesion. If each lesion was considered as a subject of study, there was no significant difference between the two groups. Conclusion UGVAB is an effective method for diagnosis and excision of appropriately selected breast multi-focal lesions and can be used routinely.