Delphi opinion poll fuchan I

The cost of owning and driving a motorcar will rise sharply, owing to the safety vehicle, pollution, scarcer energy and other developments. This should lead to revised car ownership forecasts for the year 2000 in the developed countries. The paper describes an opinion poll held amongst Dutch transportation experts on the suppositions used in a set of cost scenarios. The poll is a simplified Delphi-method and has been carried out in this way in Holland for the first time. The results cause some changes in the original approaches; notably on the probability of automatic highways, taxes on scarce resources, lengthening of car life to 20 years and lowering of engine power. The article was written before the 1973 oil-crisis started.