Turning Off the Heat: Impacts of Power Plant Decommissioning on Green Turtle Research in San Diego Bay

Green turtles (Chelonia mydas) are among the most high profile species in San Diego Bay, California, and understanding impacts of coastal development and industry is essential to the management and conservation of this local population. Here we describe power plant changing energy production and its impact on turtle habitat use and our ability to research and manage this population. For over 20 years, green sea turtles have been captured, assessed, and tagged near the South Bay Power Plant (SBPP) in the San Diego Bay; from 2002–2011, 104 turtles were captured on 212 occasions. As the 50-year-old SBPP generates less energy, effluent patterns change and water temperatures decrease, presumably to more natural conditions. There has been a concurrent decrease in turtle-capture success, perhaps due to lesser visitation to the effluent site where nets are tended. Seasonal catch-per-unit-effort declined from a high of 4.14 turtles per monitoring day, to a nine-year low of 1.33 during the 2010–2011 season. It is already apparent that management decisions related to energy policy are affecting the habitat and behavior of this stock of endangered turtles. Green turtles are expected to remain in the San Diego Bay after the SBPP becomes inoperative and continuing research will monitor future impacts and distribution shifts resulting from the expected changes in thermal pattern within south San Diego Bay. Research efforts to study this population (i.e., capture methods and locations) will require modification in response to these changes. Lessons learned here are applicable to the immediate coastal development of San Diego, as well as at similar interactions between marine turtles and industrial thermal effluent discharge throughout Southern California, the United States, and beyond.     

Examining the influence of multidestination service orientation on transit service productivity: a multivariate analysis

Between 1990 and 2000, U.S. transit agencies added service and increased ridership, but the ridership increase failed to keep pace with the service increase. The result was a decline in service effectiveness (or productivity). This marks the continuation of a long-running and often-studied trend. The scholarly literature attributes this phenomenon, at least in part, to transit agency decisions to decentralize their service rather than focus on serving the traditional CBD market. Many scholars argue that a decentralized service orientation is both ineffective and inefficient because it attracts few riders and requires large per-rider subsidies. This research tests whether a non-traditional, decentralized service orientation, called multidestination service, results in reduced service productivity. Contrary to what the literature suggests, we find that MSAs whose transit agencies pursued a multidestination service orientation did not experience lower productivity. These results indicate that policies that have encouraged the growth of decentralized transit services have not necessarily been detrimental to the industry.

20世纪美国应对机动性的交通构想及高速公路发展历程

为了阐述20世纪除汽车机动性外,交通发展经历的最重要的进程——城市高速公路的出现,考察了过去100年来美国城市交通规划的历史。通过回顾各种研究资料,认为资助州际公路发展所采用的方法使联邦和州公路工程师成为主管,这影响了公路的选线及设计。联邦公路工程师只关注机动车通过效率的最大化,而在很大程度上忽略了城市的其他利害关系。没有先进的规划理念指导、过度建设、稀疏、放射环状的道路网对于加强机动性取得了极大的效益,但通常要为此付出巨大的社会和环境成本。最后指出,在实践中要重新审视具有百年历史的协调交通与土地利用规划的观点,而且,公共财政权宜之计式的政治决策方式将对工程、出行和城市形态产生深远的影响。·     

A nonlinear model predictive control formulation for obstacle avoidance in high-speed autonomous ground vehicles in unstructured environments

This paper presents a nonlinear model predictive control (MPC) formulation for obstacle avoidance in high-speed, large-size autono-mous ground vehicles (AGVs) with high centre of gravity (CoG) that operate in unstructured environments, such as military vehicles. The term ‘unstructured’ in this context denotes that there are no lanes or traffic rules to follow. Existing MPC formulations for passenger vehicles in structured environments do not readily apply to this context. Thus, a new nonlinear MPC formulation is developed to navigate an AGV from its initial position to a target position at high-speed safely. First, a new cost function formulation is used that aims to find the shortest path to the target position, since no reference trajectory exists in unstructured environments. Second, a region partitioning approach is used in conjunction with a multi-phase optimal control formulation to accommodate the complicated forms the obstacle-free region can assume due to the presence of multiple obstacles in the prediction horizon in an unstructured environment. Third, the no-wheel-lift-off condition, which is the major dynamical safety concern for high-speed, high-CoG AGVs, is ensured by limiting the steering angle within a range obtained offline using a 14 degrees-of-freedom vehicle dynamics model. Thus, a safe, high-speed navigation is enabled in an unstructured environment. Simulations of an AGV approaching multiple obstacles are provided to demonstrate the effectiveness of the algorithm.     

Statistical characterization of surfaces of corroded steel plates

The statistical characteristics of corroded steel plate surfaces exposed to marine environments are of interest for assessing longer term structural safety and integrity using probabilistic methods. This requires information about the variability of corrosion loss and pitting over surfaces. The present paper reports on the observed statistical character of the surfaces of 10 large (1.2 m × 0.8 m × 3 mm thick) steel plates exposed in temperate climate marine immersion, tidal and splash zones for 2.5 years. For the analysis the plates were cut into smaller segments that were mechanically scanned to obtain digitised surface topographies. These were then analysed to estimate the correlation structure and the standard deviation of the surface topography. Considerable differences were found for these and for the mean corrosion loss between different exposure zones. For any one segment the surface topography was found to be highly statistically dependent, implying that smaller coupon sizes can provide adequate estimates of corrosion loss. From this it may be inferred that the deepest pits are not statistically independent as commonly assumed in extreme value statistical representations.     

Hierarchical ordering of nests in a joint mode and destination choice model

This paper seeks to explore the relationship between mode and destination choice in an integrated nested choice model. A fundamental argument can be made that in certain circumstances, the ordering of choices should be reversed from the usual sequence of destination choice preceding mode choice. This results in a travel demand model where travelers are more likely to change destinations than to change transportation modes. For small and medium size urban areas, particularly in the United States, with less well developed public transit systems that draw few choice riders, this assumption makes much more sense than the traditional modeling assumptions. The models used in the new travel modeling system developed for Knoxville, Tennessee utilize this reversed ordering, with generally good results, which required no external tinkering in the logsum parameters.     

Tanker forward freight agreements: the future for freight futures?

Since paper freight-hedging tools were introduced to counter volatile tanker freight rates, the hesitant uptake of tanker Forward Freight Agreements (FFAs) has been attributed to traditional risk seeking propensities amongst tanker owners, naturally reluctant to hedge against risk. To test how far the well-documented generic determinants and incentives for corporate hedging could explain this hesitation in the tanker market, the attitudes of tanker owners and charterers towards freight hedging, risk and perceptions of FFAs, were surveyed. Although FFAs were widely viewed as an important development, some respondents were unaware of their function and a majority had not used them. The link between freight hedging activity and participants' risk aversion was not clear-cut, but with market liquidity critical to raising FFA usage improved technical education is essential to widespread acceptance     

Suspended sediment and erosion dynamics in Kugmallit Bay and Beaufort Sea during ice-free conditions

The Mackenzie River is the largest river on the North American side of the Arctic and its huge freshwater and sediment load impacts the Canadian Beaufort Shelf. Huge quantities of sediment and associated organic carbon are transported in the Mackenzie plume into the interior of the Arctic Ocean mainly during the freshet (May to September). Changing climate scenarios portend increased coastal erosion and resuspension that lead to altered river-shelf-slope particle budgets. We measured sedimentation rates, suspended particulate matter (SPM), particle size and settling rates during ice-free conditions in Kugmallit Bay (3–5 m depth). Additionally, measurements of erosion rate, critical shear stress, particle size distribution and resuspension threshold of bottom sediments were examined at four regionally contrasting sites (33–523 m depth) on the Canadian Beaufort Shelf using a new method for assessing sediment erosion. Wind induced resuspension was evidenced by a strong relationship between SPM and wind speed in Kugmallit Bay. Deployment of sediment traps showed decreasing sedimentation rates at sites along an inshore–offshore transect ranging from 5400 to 3700 g m^− 2 day^− 1. Particle settling rates and size distributions measured using a Perspex settling chamber showed strong relationships between equivalent spherical diameter (ESD) and particle settling rates (r² = 0.91). Mean settling rates were 0.72 cm s^− 1 with corresponding ESD values of 0.9 mm. Undisturbed sediment cores were exposed to shear stress in an attempt to compare differences in sediment stability across the shelf during September to October 2003. Shear was generated by vertically oscillating a perforated disc at controlled frequencies corresponding to calibrated shear velocity using a piston grid erosion device. Critical (Type I) erosion thresholds (u) varied between 1.1 and 1.3 cm s^− 1 with no obvious differences in location. Sediments at the deepest site Amundsen Gulf displayed the highest erosion rates (22–54 g m^− 2 min^− 1) with resuspended particle sizes ranging from 100 to 930 µm for all sites. There was no indication of biotic influence on sediment stability, although our cores did not display a fluff layer of unconsolidated sediment. Concurrent studies in the delta and shelf region suggest the importance of a nepheloid layer which transports suspended particles to the slope. Continuous cycles of resuspension, deposition, and horizontal advection may intensify with reduction of sea ice in this region. Our measurements coupled with studies of circulation and cross-shelf exchange allow parameterization and modeling of particle dynamics and carbon fluxes under various climate change scenarios.