An aggregate approach to model evacuee behavior for no-notice evacuation operations

This study proposes an aggregate approach to model evacuee behavior in the context of no-notice evacuation operations. It develops aggregate behavior models for evacuation decision and evacuation route choice to support information-based control for the real-time stage-based routing of individuals in the affected areas. The models employ the mixed logit structure to account for the heterogeneity across the evacuees. In addition, due to the subjectivity involved in the perception and interpretation of the ambient situation and the information received, relevant fuzzy logic variables are incorporated within the mixed logit structure to capture these characteristics. Evacuation can entail emergent behavioral processes as the problem is characterized by a potential threat from the extreme event, time pressure, and herding mentality. Simulation experiments are conducted for a hypothetical terror attack to analyze the models’ ability to capture the evacuation-related behavior at an aggregate level. The results illustrate the value of using a mixed logit structure when heterogeneity is pronounced. They further highlight the benefits of incorporating fuzzy logic to enhance the prediction accuracy in the presence of subjective and linguistic elements in the problem.     

Analysis of the factors that influence the relationship between business air travel and videoconferencing

This paper seeks to investigate the relationship between business air travel and videoconferencing for intra-firm communication using econometric models developed through survey data from Taiwan’s technology industry. The survey respondents include business firms that either use or do not use videoconferencing currently. Based on survey data analyses, negative binomial models are developed for the set of current adopters of videoconferencing, and a Poisson regression model is developed for the non-adopters. They suggest substitution relationships between business air travel and videoconferencing for the two groups. However, the substitution effect is perceptibly stronger when videoconferencing is used as a substitute for business air travel. The analysis highlights that the meeting context significantly influences the choice of the communication mechanism; meeting contexts that do not specifically require face-to-face interaction tend to foster increased videoconferencing usage. Further, the perceptions of the respondents in terms of the relative benefits and weaknesses of each communication option influence the likelihood of substitution.     

Online calibration of an integrated framework for information‐based evacuation operations

This study seeks to online calibrate the parameters of aggregate evacuee behavior models used in a behavior‐consistent information‐based control module for determining information strategies for real‐time evacuation operations. It enables the deployment of an operational framework for mass evacuation that integrates three aspects underlying an evacuation operation: demand (evacuee behavior), supply (network management), and disaster characteristics. To attain behavior‐consistency, the control module factors evacuees' likely responses to the disseminated information in determining information‐based control strategies. Hence, the ability of the behavior models to predict evacuees' likely responses is critical to the effectiveness of traffic routing by information strategies. The mixed logit structure is used for the aggregate behavior models to accommodate the behavioral heterogeneity across the population. An online calibration problem is proposed to calibrate the random parameters in the behavior models by using the least square estimator to minimize the gap between the predicted network flows and unfolding traffic dynamics. Background traffic, an important but rarely studied issue for modeling evacuation traffic, is also accounted for in the proposed problem. Numerical experiments are conducted to illustrate the importance of the calibration problem for addressing the system consistency issues and integrating the demand, supply, and disaster characteristics for more efficient evacuation operations. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Routing and charging locations for electric vehicles for intercity trips

This study addresses two problems in the context of battery electric vehicles (EVs) for intercity trips: the EV routing problem and the EV optimal charging station location problem (CSLP). The paper shows that EV routing on the shortest path subject to range feasibility for one origin–destination (O–D) pair, called the shortest walk problem (SWP), as well as a stronger version of the problem – the p-stop limited SWP – can be reduced to solving the shortest path problem on an auxiliary network. The paper then addresses optimal CSLPs in which EVs are range feasible with and without p-stops. We formulate the models as mixed-integer multi-commodity flow problems on the same auxiliary network without path and relay pattern enumeration. Benders decomposition is used to propose an exact solution approach. Numerical experiments are conducted using the Indiana state network.     

Impacts of Pokémon GO on route and mode choice decisions: exploring the potential for integrating augmented reality,gamification, and social components in mobile apps to influence travel decisions

Transportation - This study aims to understand the impacts of Pokémon GO, a popular location-based augmented reality (AR) mobile gaming app, on route and mode choices. Pokémon GO...     

Behavior-consistent real-time traffic routing under information provision

The problem addressed here involves a controller seeking to enhance traffic network performance via real-time routing information provision to drivers while explicitly accounting for drivers’ likely reactions towards the information. A fuzzy control modeling approach is used to determine the associated behavior-consistent information-based network control strategies. Experiments are performed to compare the effectiveness of the behavior-consistent approach with traditional dynamic traffic assignment based approaches for deployment. The results show the importance of incorporating driver behavior realistically in the determination of the information strategies. Significant differences in terms of system travel time savings and compliance to the information strategies can be obtained when the behavior-consistent approach is compared to the traditional approaches. The behavior-consistent approach can provide more robust performance compared to the standard user or system optimal information strategies. Subject to a meaningful estimation of driver behavior, it can ensure system performance improvement. By contrast, approaches that do not seek to simultaneously achieve the objectives of the drivers and the controller can potentially deteriorate system performance because the controller may over-recommend or under-recommend some routes, or recommend routes that are not considered by the drivers.     

Identification of vehicle sensor locations for link-based network traffic applications

Information on link flows in a vehicular traffic network is critical for developing long-term planning and/or short-term operational management strategies. In the literature, most studies to develop such strategies typically assume the availability of measured link traffic information on all network links, either through manual survey or advanced traffic sensor technologies. In practical applications, the assumption of installed sensors on all links is generally unrealistic due to budgetary constraints. It motivates the need to estimate flows on all links of a traffic network based on the measurement of link flows on a subset of links with suitably equipped sensors. This study, addressed from a budgetary planning perspective, seeks to identify the smallest subset of links in a network on which to locate sensors that enables the accurate estimation of traffic flows on all links of the network under steady-state conditions. Here, steady-state implies that the path flows are static. A “basis link” method is proposed to determine the locations of vehicle sensors, by using the link-path incidence matrix to express the network structure and then identifying its “basis” in a matrix algebra context. The theoretical background and mathematical properties of the proposed method are elaborated. The approach is useful for deploying long-term planning and link-based applications in traffic networks.