Simulating ad-hoc demand-responsive transportation: a comparison of three approaches

Transport models are used to evaluate new infrastructure and public transport services, varied levels of demand, and new ideas for demand management. Exploring these proposals virtually is easier than implementation and testing in situ. However, existing models are based around traditional forms of transportation. As part of a feature analysis using a case study approach, three different simulation packages (a simple custom-developed package, traffic microsimulation, and agent-based simulation) are used to develop and demonstrate simulations of demand-responsive transportation (DRT) and analyze the advantages and disadvantages of each simulation approach for evaluating DRT. While the simulations display some relational replication (meaning they produce similar relational patterns with respect to certain variables), they do not show distributional replication (that is, the value of the results is not statistically similar), meaning that under- or over-estimation of predicted travel could occur. Recommendations for the application of each modeling approach are made.     

A model of the travel to work limits of parents

This paper considers the length of time that parents are willing to travel to an existing or new job. Using data for over 12,000 parents it finds that many characteristics were associated with being less likely to be willing to travel to work for at least an hour (roundtrip). These include: being a women, those out of work, having children under 5, being a lone parent and using formal childcare. Professionals and associate professions were more willing to travel for longer periods. In terms of location, those in accessible small towns and rural areas were willing to travel more than those in larger urban areas and those in remote rural areas willing to travel most. Policy implications are also set out.     

Exploring spatial variety in patterns of activity-travel behaviour: initial results from the Toronto Travel-Activity Panel Survey (TTAPS)

Studies of urban travel behaviour typically focus on weekday activities and commuting. This is surprising given the rising contribution of discretionary activities to daily travel that has occurred during the last few decades. Moreover, current understanding of the relationship between travel behaviour and land use remains incomplete, with little research carried out to explore spatial properties of activity-travel behaviour during the off-peak and weekend time periods. Weekend behaviours, for example, influenced by the availability of time and the spatiotemporal distribution of “weekend” destinations, likely produce spatially and temporally distinct activity-travel patterns. Using data from the first wave of the Toronto Travel-Activity Panel Survey (TTAPS), this paper examines an area of research that has received little attention; namely, the presence of spatial variety in activity-travel behaviour. The paper begins by looking at the extent to which individuals engage in spatially repetitive location choices during the course of a single week. Area-based measures of geographical extent and activity dispersion are then used to expose differences in weekday-to-weekend and day-to-day activity-travel patterns. Examination of unclassified activities carried out over a 1 week period reveals a level of spatial repetition that does not materialise across activities classified by type, travel mode, and planning strategy. Despite the inherent spatial flexibility offered by the personal automobile, spatial repetition is also found to be surprisingly similar across travel modes. The results also indicate weekday-to-weekend, and day-to-day fluctuations in spatial properties of individual activity-travel behaviour. These findings challenge the utility of the short-run survey as an instrument for capturing archetypal patterns of spatial behaviour. In addition, the presence of a weekday-to-weekend differential in spatial behaviour suggests that policies targeting weekday travel reduction could have little impact on travel associated with weekend activities.

Converting mixed pedestrian flows into equivalent commuters using standard pedestrian equivalent factors

This paper develops the concept of standard pedestrian equivalent (SPE) factors for converting a mixed pedestrian flow into an equivalent commuter flow. After a comprehensive review of passenger car equivalent (PCE) methodologies, the equal total travel time method is utilised for SPE estimation. A micro-simulation approach is employed for the formulation of the total travel time–flow relationship. Field data collected on walking speed distributions for commuters and older adults in Australia are used as model inputs. An independent samples t-test confirms the significant difference between walking speeds of commuters and older adults. For this paper, a unidirectional flow on flat walkways is initially considered and evaluated across proportions of older people, different flows and different walkway widths. The introduction of older adults significantly increases total travel time especially under congested conditions. Results of this investigation can be used for evaluation or design of pedestrian facilities experiencing similar flow conditions.     

A velocity and payload dependent emission model for heavy-duty road freight transportation

The paper develops a forecasting model of emissions from traffic flows embracing the dynamics of driving behavior due to variations in payload. To measure of emissions at the level of individual vehicles under varying payloads a portable emission measurement system is used. This paper reports on a model based on data at the level of individual vehicles for a representative road trajectory. The model aggregates the data to the level of a homogeneous flow dependent of velocity and specific power, which is dependent on payload weight. We find a lean specification for the model that provides emission factors for CO₂, NO_x, HC, CO, and NO₂. The results indicate that, in comparison with earlier models, NO_x emissions in particular tend to be underestimated.     

Model-Predictive Control Strategy for an Array of Wave-Energy Converters

To facilitate the commercialization of wave energy in an array or farm environment, effective control strategies for improving energy extraction efficiency of the system are important. In this paper, we develop and apply model-predictive control (MPC) to a heaving point-absorber array, where the optimization problem is cast into a convex quadratic programming (QP) formulation, which can be efficiently solved by a standard QP solver. We introduced a term for penalizing large slew rates in the cost function to ensure the convexity of this function. Constraints on both range of the states and the input capacity can be accommodated. The convex formulation reduces the computational hurdles imposed on conventional nonlinear MPC. For illustration of the control principles, a point-absorber approximation is adopted to simplify the representation of the hydrodynamic coefficients among the array by exploiting the small devices to wavelength assumption. The energy-capturing capabilities of a two-cylinder array in regular and irregular waves are investigated. The performance of the MPC for this two-WEC array is compared to that for a single WEC, and the behavior of the individual devices in head or beam wave configuration is explained. Also shown is the reactive power required by the power takeoff system to achieve the performance.

     

Residual stress distributions in ship hull specimens

This paper provides an in-depth study of residual stress distributions found in stiffened steel plate structures, such as those typically used in ship hulls. The effect of stiffener spacing on the distribution of residual stress components was studied. The welding heat input was also varied between high and moderate to study the effect of heat input level on residual stress distributions. Four specimens, resembling typical stiffened steel plate structures used in ship hulls were built and tested. Steel plates of 9.5 mm thickness were stiffened by welding L127 × 76 × 9.5 steel angles. The test was completed using the neutron diffraction method. The three normal components of residual stress were obtained in this study. It was found that a lower heat input results in higher tensile residual stress and that there exists a critical stiffener spacing somewhere beyond 250 mm that creates a maximum tensile residual stress value near the welded connection.     

Commuting times – The role of gender,children and part-time work

It has been widely established in the UK and other developed countries that men commute longer than women and that fathers travel furthest to work while mothers travel least. This paper models a wide variety of factors that affect commuting times including gender, presence of children and working hours (part- and full-time work). It finds that of particular importance to the length of commute are the worker’s age, having children, the age of their youngest child, occupation, weekly pay, and mode of transport (with public transport being associated with longer commutes). The region of residence was important for men and women working full-time but not for part timers (except for women in London), while ethnicity and owner occupation were associated with commuting length for full-time men only. The results suggest that while gender, working hours and childcare responsibility are often inter-related, it is useful to disaggregate their effects when modelling or developing policy.     

Book reviews

We show in this paper that the throughput data for the top 300 container ports reported each year by the various authorities follows a simple truncated lognormal distribution. This surprising phenomenon repeats itself every year from 1982 to 2006, despite many tumultuous changes in the container shipping world. The empirical data suggests that Gibrat's Law of proportionate growth indeed holds for the world container throughput data. Unfortunately, the classical stochastic growth model and other variants often used to explain the origin of this law appears to be too simplistic for the container terminal industry. We use instead the perspective that the container terminal throughput data are essentially an aggregate measure of the number of visitations as each container circulates on the world shipping network, and use this to propose a Markov chain based container circulation model to explain the origin of this phenomenon. Simulation results show that our network-based model is able to replicate the behavior of the empirical data to a reasonable degree of accuracy, and does not contradict the law of proportionate growth. More importantly, this model is able to replicate the relationship between the degree of connectivity of a port (i.e. number of linkages with other ports) and its association with the container throughput data, an empirical regularity which could not be explained using classical approaches.