Epistemic-based investigation of the probability of hazard scenarios using Bayesian network for the lifting operation of floating objects

Owing to the increase in unprecedented accidents with new root causes in almost all operational areas, the importance of risk management has dramatically risen. Risk assessment, one of the most significant aspects of risk management, has a substantial impact on the system-safety level of organizations, industries, and operations. If the causes of all kinds of failure and the interactions between them are considered, effective risk assessment can be highly accurate. A combination of traditional risk assessment approaches and modern scientific probability methods can help in realizing better quantitative risk assessment methods. Most researchers face the problem of minimal field data with respect to the probability and frequency of each failure. Because of this limitation in the availability of epistemic knowledge, it is important to conduct epistemic estimations by applying the Bayesian theory for identifying plausible outcomes. In this paper, we propose an algorithm and demonstrate its application in a case study for a light-weight lifting operation in the Persian Gulf of Iran. First, we identify potential accident scenarios and present them in an event tree format. Next, excluding human error, we use the event tree to roughly estimate the prior probability of other hazard-promoting factors using a minimal amount of field data. We then use the Success Likelihood Index Method (SLIM) to calculate the probability of human error. On the basis of the proposed event tree, we use the Bayesian network of the provided scenarios to compensate for the lack of data. Finally, we determine the resulting probability of each event based on its evidence in the epistemic estimation format by building on two Bayesian network types: the probability of hazard promotion factors and the Bayesian theory. The study results indicate that despite the lack of available information on the operation of floating objects, a satisfactory result can be achieved using epistemic data.     

3D numerical modeling of wave forces on tandem fixed cylinders using the BEM

In this paper a 3D numerical model was developed to study the complicated interaction between waves and a set of tandem fixed cylinders.The fluid was considered to be inviscid and irrotational.Therefore,the Helmholtz equation was used as a governing equation.The boundary element method（BEM） was adopted to discretize the relevant equations.Open boundaries were used in far fields of the study domain.Linear waves were generated and propagated towards tandem fixed cylinders to estimate the forces applied on them.Special attention was paid to consideration of the effect on varying non-dimensional cylinder radius and distance between cylinders,ka and kd on forces and trapped modes.The middle cylinder wave forces and trapped modes in a set of nine tandem cylinders were validated utilizing analytical data.The comparisons confirm the accuracy of the model.The results of the inline wave force estimation on n tandem cylinders show that the critical cylinder in the row is the middle one for odd numbers of cylinders.Furthermore the results show that the critical trapped mode effect occurs for normalized cylinder radiuses close to 0.5 and 1.0.Finally the force estimation for n tandem cylinders confirms that force amplitude of the middle cylinder versus normalized separation distance fluctuates about that of a single cylinder.     

采用耦合有限元、边界元方法的矩形储液舱中液体晃荡数值仿真(英文)

Sloshing of liquid can increase the dynamic pressure on the storage sidewalls and bottom in tanker ships and LNG careers. Different geometric shapes were suggested for storage tank to minimize the sloshing pressure on tank perimeter. In this research, a numerical code was developed to model liquid sloshing in a rectangular partially filled tank. Assuming the fluid to be inviscid, Laplace equation and nonlinear free surface boundary conditions are solved using coupled FEM-BEM. The code performance for sloshing modeling is validated against available data. To minimize the sloshing pressure on tank perimeter, rectangular tanks with specific volumes and different aspect ratios were investigated and the best aspect ratios were suggested. The results showed that the rectangular tank with suggested aspect ratios, not only has a maximum surrounded tank volume to the constant available volume, but also reduces the sloshing pressure efficiently.     

Design of ANFIS networks using hybrid genetic and SVD methods for modeling and prediction of rubber engine mount stiffness

Genetic Algorithm (GA) and Singular Value Decomposition (SVD) are deployed for optimal design of both the Gaussian membership functions of antecedents and the vector of linear coefficients of consequents, respectively, of ANFIS networks. These networks are used for stiffness modelling and prediction of rubber engine mounts. The aim of such modelling is to show how the stiffness of an engine mount changes with variations in geometric parameters. It is demonstrated that SVD can be optimally used to find the vector of linear coefficients of conclusion parts using ANFIS (Adaptive Neuro-Fuzzy Inference Systems) models. In addition, the Gaussian membership functions in premise parts can be determined using a GA. In this study, the stiffness training data of 36 different bush type engine mounts were obtained using the finite element analysis (FEA).     

Dynamic Analysis of High-Speed Boat Motion Simulator by a Novel 3-DoF Parallel Mechanism with Prismatic Actuators Based on Seakeeping Trial

In this study, we focused on a novel parallel mechanism for utilizing the motion simulator of a high-speed boat (HSB). First, we expressed the real behavior of the HSB based on a seakeeping trial. For this purpose, we recorded the motion parameters of the HSB by gyroscope and accelerometer sensors, while using a special data acquisition technique. Additionally, a Chebychev high-pass filter was applied as a noise filter to the accelerometer sensor. Then, a novel 3 degrees of freedom (DoF) parallel mechanism (1T2R) with prismatic actuators is proposed and analyses were performed on its inverse kinematics, velocity, and acceleration. Finally, the inverse dynamic analysis is presented by the principle of virtual work, and the validation of the analytical equations was compared by the ADAMS simulation software package. Additionally, according to the recorded experimental data of the HSB, the feasibility of the proposed novel parallel mechanism motion simulator of the HSB, as well as the necessity of using of the washout filters, was explored.     

Self-tuning control algorithm design for vehicle adaptive cruise control system through real-time estimation of vehicle parameters and road grade

The main purpose of this paper is to design a self-tuning control algorithm for an adaptive cruise control (ACC) system that can adapt its behaviour to variations of vehicle dynamics and uncertain road grade. To this aim, short-time linear quadratic form (STLQF) estimation technique is developed so as to track simultaneously the trend of the time-varying parameters of vehicle longitudinal dynamics with a small delay. These parameters are vehicle mass, road grade and aerodynamic drag-area coefficient. Next, the values of estimated parameters are used to tune the throttle and brake control inputs and to regulate the throttle/brake switching logic that governs the throttle and brake switching. The performance of the designed STLQF-based self-tuning control (STLQF-STC) algorithm for ACC system is compared with the conventional method based on fixed control structure regarding the speed/distance tracking control modes. Simulation results show that the proposed control algorithm improves the performance of throttle and brake controllers, providing more comfort while travelling, enhancing driving safety and giving a satisfactory performance in the presence of different payloads and road grade variations.     

Evaluation of a transportation system employing autonomous vehicles

The problem of studying public transportation systems with autonomous vehicles is challenging because of behavioral differences that make existing models poorly fit and the technical difficulties involved in studying large autonomous systems operating on a grand scale. In this paper, we propose the following: (i) an autonomous transportation network setting; (ii) a method for modeling autonomous vehicles in simulation; and (iii) a high‐performance simulation platform that allows analysis and visualization of transportation technologies. Results from microsimulation confirm theoretical benefits and improvements from employing autonomous systems in an example setting and highlight the platform's general ability to allow researchers to implement novel transportation systems and study the cost benefit variations occurring between them. Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

基于耐波性试验采用棱镜致动器的新型三自由度并行机构开发的高速船运动模拟器的动力分析（英文）

In this study, we focused on a novel parallel mechanism for utilizing the motion simulator of a high-speed boat(HSB). First, we expressed the real behavior of the HSB based on a seakeeping trial. For this purpose, we recorded the motion parameters of the HSB by gyroscope and accelerometer sensors, while using a special data acquisition technique. Additionally, a Chebychev highpass filter was applied as a noise filter to the accelerometer sensor. Then, a novel 3 degrees of freedom(DoF) parallel mechanism(1T2R) with prismatic actuators is proposed and analyses were performed on its inverse kinematics, velocity, and acceleration.Finally, the inverse dynamic analysis is presented by the principle of virtual work, and the validation of the analytical equations was compared by the ADAMS simulation software package. Additionally, according to the recorded experimental data of the HSB, the feasibility of the proposed novel parallel mechanism motion simulator of the HSB, as well as the necessity of using of the washout filters, was explored.     

Hydrodynamic Performance Prediction of Stepped Planing Craft Using CFD and ANNs

In the present paper, the hydrodynamic performance of stepped planing craft is investigated by computational fluid dynamics (CFD) analysis. For this purpose, th...