公共自行车使用时空特性挖掘及租还需求预测

基于宁波市公共自行车刷卡数据、POI(Point of Interest)数据、气象和空气质量等数据，从数据驱动视角，深入挖掘公共自行车使用的时空特征及站点租还车需求预测。在时间上，采用KMeans算法，将站点聚为5类，探讨各类站点的时变需求规律及影响因素；在空间上，提出基于POI 数据的站点用地类型识别方法，将站点分为居住类、交通设施类、办公类和商业休闲类。构建以 15，30，60 min 为间隔，以租还车需求为目标变量的随机森林预测模型，并与常用的 BP (Back Propagation)神经网络、K最近邻方法进行比较。结果表明，随机森林模型的精度更高，适用性更强。以30 min为间隔的站点租还车需求预测精度最高，考虑站点土地利用类型后能有效提高模型的预测精度。本文结果可作为未来站点平衡调度的依据并推广应用于共享单车系统，为改善服务水平提供技术和理论支撑。     

Costs of air pollutants from shipping: a meta-regression analysis

ABSTRACT

This study estimated the external cost of air pollution from shipping by means of a meta-regression analysis, which has not been made before. Three pollutants, which were included in most of the primary studies, were considered: nitrogen oxides (NO_x), sulphur dioxides (SO₂) and particulate matters with a diameter of max 2.5 micrometres (PM_2.5). All primary studies included damages of health and a majority added impacts on agriculture and estimated the cost of air pollutants by transferring cost estimates from studies on costs of air emissions from transports in Europe. Different regression models and estimators were used and robust results were found of statistically significant emission elasticities of below one, i.e. total external costs increase by less than 1% when emissions increase by 1%. There was a small variation between the pollutants, with the highest elasticity for PM_2.5 and lowest for NO_x. Calculations of the marginal external cost of the pollutants showed the same pattern, with this cost being approximately six times higher for PM_2.5 than for the other pollutants. Common to all pollutants was that the marginal external cost decreases when emission increases. Another robust result was a significant increase in the cost of studies published in journals compared with other publication outlets. These findings point out some caution when transferring constant external unit cost of air pollutant from shipping, which is much applied in the literature, and the cost functions estimated in this study could thus provide a complementary transfer mechanism.     

城市轨道交通列车故障救援延误计算与仿真

针对城市轨道交通列车故障救援方式及延误计算问题,对列车故障救援作业流程进行分析,然后根据作业流程建立5种救援方式的延误计算方法,最后使用Open track对福州市某地铁线路进行列车故障救援仿真,并对仿真与计算结果进行比较分析.研究结果表明:在一定范围内提高救援速度可有效减小救援列车作业时间;所提出的计算方法可较为准确反映延误情况;在救援起讫点内,以固定闭塞运行的后序列车的延误会突增并积累,造成延误增幅的差异.     

S^2 BHCA Multiple AUVs cooperation oriented control architecture

Oceanographic survey, or other similar applications should be the applications of multiple AUVs. In this paper, the skill ＆ simulation based hybrid control architecture （S^2BHCA） as the controller＇s design reference was proposed. It is a multi-robot cooperation oriented intelligent control architecture based on hybrid ideas. The S^2BHCA attempts to incorporate the virtues of the reactive controller and of the deliberative controller by introducing the concept of the ＂skill＂. The additional online task simulation ability for cooperation is supported, too. As an application, a multiple AUV control system was developed with three ＂skills＂ for the MCM mission including two different cooperative tasks. The simulation and the sea trials show that simple task expression, fast reaction and better cooperation support can be achieved by realizing the AUV controller based on the S^2BHCA.     

地铁反恐怖刍议

地铁一直都是恐怖分子袭击的重要目标，施放毒气及生化制剂、爆炸、纵火是地铁恐怖袭击的主要类型。我国应建立高效的反恐应急体系和协调机制，制定地铁反恐应急预案及预案演练，切断恐怖分子的危险物品来源，提供反恐怖的科技保障，进行安全防范和检查，加强民众安全防范教育，提高防范和应对恐怖袭击的能力。     

并联机器人的积分滑模模糊控制

根据并联机器人液压伺服系统的特点,将积分变结构控制理论应用于并联机器人的轨迹跟踪。在滑模控制中引入跟踪误差积分控制项,提高了跟踪精度,且消除了要求被跟踪信号导数已知的假设；同时,基于模糊控制理论,对切换控制量进行模糊化处理,有效地削弱了滑模切换控制所产生的抖动。研究和实践表明：该控制方法对于并联机器人轨迹跟踪具有良好的控制效果。     

Transit assignment under crowded conditions

This paper presents a transit assignment algorithm for crowded networks. Both congestion in vehicles and queuing at stations are explicitly taken into account in predicting passenger flows for a fixed pattern of origin-destination trip demands. The overflow effects due to insufficient capacity of transit lines are considered to be concentrated at transit stations, while the in-vehicle congestion effects (or discomforts) are considered to be dependent on in-vehicle passenger volume. Overflow delay at a transit station is dependent on the number of excess passengers required to wait for the next transit car. We use a logit model to determine the split between passengers that chose to wait for the next transit car and passengers that chose to board on the alternative transit lines. The proposed algorithm predicts how passenger will choose their optimal routes under both queuing and crowded conditions.     

洋山深水港区一期工程航行安全模拟试验研究

运用电子操纵模拟器 ,预演了第六代集装箱船在各种不利航行条件下进出洋山深水港区的航行过程 ,分析了风、浪、流等环境因素对船舶操纵的影响 ,确定了船舶安全进出港所需的航道宽度、船舶安全靠泊条件和掉头操纵水域尺度。大量的模拟试验研究结果证实 :洋山深水港区具有良好的船舶航行条件 ,船舶按一期工程小洋山方案 (一 )、小洋山方案 (二 )以及小洋山～镬盖塘方案进行靠离泊和掉头操纵无本质差异 ,主要不同点在于船舶通过窄口后小洋山方案 (一 )和小洋山方案 (二 )比小洋山～镬盖塘方案有较长的制动水域     

立体停车库深基坑结构设计

结合某立体停车库工程实例，阐述了高层建筑软土深基坑支护结构的设计与实践，以开挖深度、支撑位置和冠梁截面为设计变量，对支护结构设计及施工工艺进行方案比选及优化，采用间隔桩作为深基坑围护结构，经使用表明，该设计切实可行。