Widening the Panama Canal and U.S. ports: historical and economic impact analyses

ABSTRACT

The economic history of the U.S. illustrates how the role of many cities has been changed by being seaports or located on navigable rivers or lakes. Based on the widening of the Panama Canal in 2016, the West Coast ports that include the west coast seaports of California, Oregon, and Washington were expected to become less important, while the freight shares of the East Coast and Gulf ports would increase. By how much it has been not easy to measure or predict so far, but this study attempted to define some of the key parameters in the measurement. As well as several relevant background topics, both the demand- and supply-side versions of the National Interstate Economic Model, have been applied for the measurement of economic impacts. U.S. port authorities and policy makers at the local and national levels who respond and develop plans for coping with the new realities of the Panama Canal are able to understand the extent to which changes in shippers’ and land-mode transporters’ behaviors would undermine the logistics and the costs of their activities. Therefore, this study is important for a diverse spectrum of port development strategies in the U.S. to respond to the Canal expansion.     

Costs of air pollutants from shipping: a meta-regression analysis

ABSTRACT

This study estimated the external cost of air pollution from shipping by means of a meta-regression analysis, which has not been made before. Three pollutants, which were included in most of the primary studies, were considered: nitrogen oxides (NO_x), sulphur dioxides (SO₂) and particulate matters with a diameter of max 2.5 micrometres (PM_2.5). All primary studies included damages of health and a majority added impacts on agriculture and estimated the cost of air pollutants by transferring cost estimates from studies on costs of air emissions from transports in Europe. Different regression models and estimators were used and robust results were found of statistically significant emission elasticities of below one, i.e. total external costs increase by less than 1% when emissions increase by 1%. There was a small variation between the pollutants, with the highest elasticity for PM_2.5 and lowest for NO_x. Calculations of the marginal external cost of the pollutants showed the same pattern, with this cost being approximately six times higher for PM_2.5 than for the other pollutants. Common to all pollutants was that the marginal external cost decreases when emission increases. Another robust result was a significant increase in the cost of studies published in journals compared with other publication outlets. These findings point out some caution when transferring constant external unit cost of air pollutant from shipping, which is much applied in the literature, and the cost functions estimated in this study could thus provide a complementary transfer mechanism.     

S^2 BHCA Multiple AUVs cooperation oriented control architecture

Oceanographic survey, or other similar applications should be the applications of multiple AUVs. In this paper, the skill ＆ simulation based hybrid control architecture （S^2BHCA） as the controller＇s design reference was proposed. It is a multi-robot cooperation oriented intelligent control architecture based on hybrid ideas. The S^2BHCA attempts to incorporate the virtues of the reactive controller and of the deliberative controller by introducing the concept of the ＂skill＂. The additional online task simulation ability for cooperation is supported, too. As an application, a multiple AUV control system was developed with three ＂skills＂ for the MCM mission including two different cooperative tasks. The simulation and the sea trials show that simple task expression, fast reaction and better cooperation support can be achieved by realizing the AUV controller based on the S^2BHCA.     

Transit assignment under crowded conditions

This paper presents a transit assignment algorithm for crowded networks. Both congestion in vehicles and queuing at stations are explicitly taken into account in predicting passenger flows for a fixed pattern of origin-destination trip demands. The overflow effects due to insufficient capacity of transit lines are considered to be concentrated at transit stations, while the in-vehicle congestion effects (or discomforts) are considered to be dependent on in-vehicle passenger volume. Overflow delay at a transit station is dependent on the number of excess passengers required to wait for the next transit car. We use a logit model to determine the split between passengers that chose to wait for the next transit car and passengers that chose to board on the alternative transit lines. The proposed algorithm predicts how passenger will choose their optimal routes under both queuing and crowded conditions.     

Mixed analysis of shell and solid elements using the overlaying mesh method

 This article presents a mixed method of analyzing shell elements and solid elements using the overlaying mesh method. In the structural design of a ship's hull, the shell elements are used for the global model. However, the solid elements are necessary to analyze the stress concentration zones or the vicinity of a crack. In such cases, the models are analyzed using zooming analysis, in which the results of a global model analysis are transferred to a local model analysis by imposing boundary conditions. This method is more advantageous than zooming analysis in terms of the accuracy of the solution and the modeling flexibility. Some examples of a plate model with a cracked surface or with a projection are shown in order to demonstrate the effectiveness of the method. Received: August 6, 2002 / Accepted: November 25, 2002 Address correspondence to: S. Nakasumi (sumi@nasl.t.u-tokyo.ac.jp) Updated from the Japanese original, which won the 2002 SNAJ prize (J Soc Nav Archit Jpn 2001;189:219–224; and 190:655–662)     

A study of passenger discomfort measures at the Hong Kong mass transit railway system

This note investigates the important attributes relating to the crowding effects at the Mass Transit Railway (MTR) stations in Hong Kong. Data was collected at two sets of three MTR stations to study the responses of the passengers due to the discomfort at crowded vehicles and platforms. Stated preference surveys were used to study the effects of passenger discomfort measures.     

Dynamic Simulation of a Smart Crank and Slider Mechanism

In this paper, a smart crank and slider mechanism is analyzed mostly from a dynamic view. By means of dynamic explicit finite element method, 3D nonlinear structure is simulated. It is proved that the mechanism can effectively accomplish smart movement prescribed. And in order to ensure reciprocal movement with higher frequency, measures should be taken to avoid over heating of parts. Compared with internal energy, kinetic energy of total rigid body is dominating, and Y direction equivalent rigid velocity is much higher than X direction velocity. Equivalent rigid velocity of all parts is consistent with respective movement condition. For both energy and velocity, slider effect is dominating. Three direction equivalent inertia force oscillates. Force amplitude in Y -direction is comparitively the greatest.     

Maritime accident investigation and temporal determinants of maritime accidents: A case study

This paper presents the results of an investigation into temporal determinants of maritime accidents based on a data-set obtained from the proceedings of formal inquiries in the former German Democratic Republic (GDR). The results show that there is no statistically significant outcome between the probability for an accident and the time of watch. Thus the results do not confirm previous studies, which reported significant time of day effects.The outcome of this study indicates that marine inquiries can provide useful data for an analysis of underlying causes of maritime accidents. It is suggested that accident inquiries should be extended into the area of watch systems employed and should record the hours of work and of rest of the officers on the watch involved in a maritime accident.     

The role of professional associations in shipping

This article is in three parts. The first covers the historical development of qualifying associations. The second covers the particular role of maritime institutions that include The Royal Institution of Naval Architects, The Institute of Marine Engineering Science and Technology and The Nautical Institute. The third and final section considers the future for maritime professional associations in the context of international shipping.     

Estimation of origin‐destination matrices for a multimodal public transit network

This paper presents a procedure for the estimation of origin‐destination (O‐D) matrices for a multimodal public transit network. The system consists of a number of favored public transit modes that are obtained from a modal split process in a traditional four‐step transportation model. The demand of each favored mode is assigned to the multimodal network, which is comprised of a set of connected links of different public transit modes. An entropy maximization procedure is proposed to simultaneously estimate the O‐D demand matrices of all favored modes, which are consistent with target data sets such as the boarding counts and line segment flows that are observed directly in the network. A case study of the Hong Kong multimodal transit network is used to demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed methodology.