基于水运系统的超大型集装箱船经济可行性论证

集装箱船大型化带来的规模经济效益受到航运公司的空前关注,但是市场运营环境变化时超大型集装箱船是否具有经济性的问题却并未引起足够的重视.文章通过选择两种典型的集装箱船型,当市场环境因素变化时,对它们的经济可行性进行论证.文章提出的单位综合营运成本模型对以往文献提出的模型进行了比较大的改进,并在实例中进行应用,可作为航运公司船型优选的参考.文章结论表明超大型集装箱船在不同的市场环境条件下有不同的经济可行性.     

基于SE-DEA模型的油轮航运企业竞争力分析

提出用超效率数据包络分析(SE-DEA)模型对油轮航运企业竞争力进行纵向评价,并以招商能源运输股份有限公司为例进行分析。结果表明:招商能源运输股份有限公司2010年竞争力相对于其他年份有所提高,原因是其2010年长期合同比率较高,保证了公司营业收入的稳定;SE-DEA适用于对油轮航运企业竞争力的分析。     

航运指数对航运金融双中心建设的启示研究

为促进上海国际航运和金融双中心建设,寻找双中心的衔接点,选择航运指数作为研究对象,从国际著名机构发布的航运指数产品入手,深入分析成功发展成金融产品的航运指数特征。文章结合航运实务的具体特征和金融交易市场的特殊要求,研究结论可供上海双中心建设长远发展规划参考。     

中国进口原油海运系统研究

随着中国原油消费量的快速增长和国家原油储备计划的实施,原油进口量逐年剧增。原油进口公司对于如何合理安排运输线路来降低进口运输费用的问题非常关注。根据我国原油进口运输以租外轮为主的现实情况,建立改进的运输问题模型,选择典型航线建立原油运输网络,并对其最优化。优化的结果可作为今后中国进口原油运输的参考。     

A co-integration approach to forecasting container carriers’ time charter rates

A vector autoregressive model was developed for a sample of container carrier time charter rates.Although the series of time charter rates are themselves found non-stationary, thus precluding the use of manymodeling methodologies, evidence provided by co-integration tests points to the existence of stable long-termrelationships between the series. An assessment of the forecasts derived from the model suggests that the spec-ification of these long-term relationships does not improve the accuracy of long-term forecasts. These resultsare interpreted as a corroboration of the efficient market hypothesis.     

Scaling Behavior of bulk freight rate volatility before and after noise reduction

Analysis of freight rate volatility characteristics is a hot topic after year 2008 due to the effect of financial crisis in marine transportation.In this paper,we analyze the bulk freight rate index by detrended fluctuation analysis(DFA) method and discover the scaling behavior.Switching points(SPs),as the indicators of scaling behavior,can be eliminated after Vondr′ak noise reduction technique.Therefore,we conclude that highfrequency noise is the cause of SP.     

舟山群岛新区船舶与海洋工程产业发展战略研究

船舶与海洋工程产业是舟山全市工业的支柱产业。结合浙江省舟山群岛新区正式获批、暨"十二五"规划开局之年的背景,在分析舟山发展该产业的优势、弱势、机会和威胁的基础上,提出了发展的战略定位、目标和布局规划。详细阐述了在当前造船业国内低端产能过剩和国际竞争日益激烈的环境下,应如何针对市场趋势选择有发展前景的产品和服务作为重点建设项目,并给出了保障措施方面的若干建议。     

Economic viability of mega-size containership in different service networks

The mega-size containership viability was analyzed by considering different service networks for different ship sizes： hub-and-spoke and multi-port-calling （MPC） networks for mega-size containerships and conventional ships. A model was proposed, which quantifies the economies of scale in operating large containerships and constructs models for ship routing under different service networks. A sensitivity analysis was conducted to test the effect of feeder costs and the results analyzed to determine optimal containership size with respect to different operational scenarios. Throughout model applications for Asia-Europe and Asia-North America trades, the mega-size containership is competitive in all scenarios for Asia-Europe, while it is viable for Asia-North America only when the feeder costs are low.