Cost-effectiveness assessment of CO2 reducing measures in shipping

International shipping is a significant contributor to global greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, and is under mounting pressure to contribute to overall GHG emission reductions. There is an ongoing debate regarding how much the sector could be expected to reduce emissions and how the reduction could be achieved. This paper details a methodology for assessing the cost-effectiveness of technical and operational measures for reducing CO₂ emissions from shipping, through the development of an evaluation parameter called the Cost of Averting a Tonne of CO₂-eq Heating, CATCH, and decision criterion, against which the evaluation parameter should be evaluated. The methodology is in line with the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) and with regulatory work on safety and environmental protection issues at the International Maritime Organization (IMO).

The results of this study suggest that CATCH <50 $/tonne of CO₂-eq should be used as a decision criterion for investment in emission reduction measures for shipping. In total, 13 specific measures for reducing CO₂ emissions have been analysed for two selected case ships to illustrate the methodology. Results from this work shows that several measures are cost effective according to the proposed criterion. The results suggest that cost effective reductions for the fleet may well be in the order of 30% for technical measures, and above 50% when including speed reductions. The results of this study show that the cost effectiveness approach for the regulation of shipping emissions is viable and should be pursued in the ongoing regulatory process.     

Effect of proposed CO2 emission reduction scenarios on capital expenditure

The International Maritime Organisation is currently working on establishing regulations for international shipping regarding greenhouse gas emissions, and a cost-effectiveness approach has been suggested as one method for determining the necessary reductions in emissions from shipping. Previous studies have investigated the CO₂ emission reduction potential for the world shipping fleet up to 2030 and the associated marginal abatement cost levels. To analyse the cost implications of different emission reduction scenarios, this study has calculated the emission reduction potential and additional capital expenditure for 25 CO₂ emission reduction measures applied to 59 ship segments. The expected fleet development over time, keeping track of new ships built from 2010 to 2030 and Existing ships built prior to 2010 and still in operation by 2030, have been modelled. Two alternative approaches to find the cost-effective potential in the world shipping fleet have been applied. One approach is to implement only measures which in themselves are cost-effective (measure-by-measure), and another approach is to implement measures as long as the net savings from cost-effective measures balance the costs of non-cost-effective measures (set of measures). The results demonstrate that by 2030, the majority (93%) of the reduction potential will be related to new ships. Our results show that the measure-by-measure approach would decrease the CO₂ emissions by 30% for new ships while the set-of-measures approach with 53% (of the 2030 baseline emissions of 1316?Mt). The implication of achieving such emission reduction is an increase in the capital expenditure on New ships by 6% (USD 183 billion) and 27% (USD 761 billion), respectively, in the period 2010 to 2030 compared to a business-as-usual scenario. The measure-by-measure approach yields a 5% decrease in CO₂ emission per 1% increase in capital expenditure, while the set-of-measures approach yields a 2% decrease per 1% increase. This is due to the significant variation in capital intensity of the different measures, ranging from almost zero to USD 200 per tonne of CO₂ averted. The results of this study are useful for the shipping industry to assess the economic burden that must be shouldered in order to implement abatement measures under different CO₂ emission reduction scenarios.     

Shipboard safety: exploring organizational and regulatory factors

ABSTRACT

How vessel crews perceive safety on board (shipboard safety) is a useful indication for the general safety level. In this study a theoretical model was explored, involving factors that could possibly influence shipboard safety. Based on a survey questionnaire (n = 244), safety climate, shipowner efficiency demands and regulatory activities were investigated as influencing factors. Structural equation modelling gave support to the theoretical model and the findings illustrate that simultaneous involvement of various levels of the maritime system (crews, shipowners, regulators) can be effective for safety improvements. The study indicates that shipboard safety is affected by actions and prioritization by external actors through safety climate. It suggests that the maritime industry will profit from monitoring safety climate as part of the ongoing risk considerations, as a supplement to reactive parameters such as accident statistics.     

A two-stage optimization approach for sulphur emission regulation compliance

In this paper, we present a two-stage optimization model for the machinery system selection problem. The objective is to minimize total cost, while aggregated power requirement and emission regulations are constraining the problem. Future fuel prices are considered to be uncertain. From a set of alternatives, the machinery configuration providing the lowest total cost is found. Also design flexibility in terms of future reconfiguration possibilities is taken into account. The machinery selection for a 2000 TEU container vessel is used as an illustrative case. Five initial machinery concepts are considered: diesel machinery, diesel machinery with a scrubber system, dual fuel (DF) machinery, pure gas engines, and a DF ready machinery. There is also a set of reconfiguration possibilities available for each alternative. From solving the case study, DF machinery is found optimal, while pure gas machinery is close to equally good. By solving the problem with deterministic fuel prices, the value of flexibility is not properly accounted for, resulting in an unreasonably high total cost for the flexible machinery alternatives. This demonstrates the need for a decision support approach that explicitly handles future uncertainty, as the two-stage stochastic model presented in this paper does.     

Failure modes in the maritime transportation system: a functional approach to throughput vulnerability

Maritime Transportation Systems (MTSs) are essential for world trade; it is crucial to understand how these systems may fail, to be able to maintain their capacity. In this paper, the MTS is seen as a throughput mechanism; a technical system which serves its purpose by moving goods for its dependents. Understanding which key functions and capabilities are prerequisite for the ability to move goods, the loss of which are the failure modes, allows for the creation of a ‘business continuity plan’ for the MTS. Through two surveys and interviews with maritime transportation industry stakeholders, it was observed that while stakeholders in the industry have a solid focus on frequent operational risks, there is a lack of awareness of vulnerabilities, as well as methods for addressing and planning for low-frequency high-impact disruption scenarios. The presented approach provides a structured set of matrices of the key functions of the MTS, allowing stakeholders to increase the system's resilience through preparing to restore this limited number of critical functions.     

Real time assimilation of HF radar currents into a coastal ocean model

A real time assimilation and forecasting system for coastal currents is presented. The purpose of the system is to deliver current analyses and forecasts on based on assimilation of high-frequency radar surface current measurements. The local Vessel Traffic Service monitoring the ship traffic to two oil terminals on the coast of Norway received the analyses and forecasts in real time.A new assimilation method based on optimal interpolation is presented where spatial covariances derived from an ocean model are used instead of simplified mathematical formulations. An array of high frequency radar antennae provides the current measurements. A suite of nested ocean models comprises the model system. The observing system is found to yield good analyses and short range forecasts that are significantly improved compared to a model twin without assimilation. The system is fast, analysis and 6-h forecasts are ready at the Vessel Traffic Service 45 min after acquisition of radar measurements.     

Waiting time and the role and value of information in scheduled transport

A new logit-based model for assigning public transit passengers to transit lines or routes is proposed. The model is based on the realistic assumption that once passengers arrive at stops, they can obtain information regarding the specific departure times. Furthermore, it takes into account that passengers are heterogeneous and hence, the choice made by a ‘representative’ passenger appears to be stochastic. The model is evaluated by means of simulations.     

Mass and heat transports in the NE Barents Sea: Observations and models

The strait between Novaya Zemlya and Frans Josef Land, here called the Barents Sea Exit (BSX) is investigated using data obtained from a current-meter array deployed in 1991–1992, and two numerical models (ROMS and NAME). Combining the observations and models the net volume flux towards the Arctic Ocean was estimated to 2.0 ± 0.6 Sv (1 Sv = 10⁶ m³s^? 1). The observations indicate that about half of this transport consists of dense, Cold Bottom Water, which may penetrate to great depths and contribute to the thermohaline circulation. Both models give quite similar net transport, seasonal variations and spatial current structures, and the discrepancies from the observations were related to the coarse representation of the bottom topography in the models. Also the models indicate that actual deployment did not capture the main in- and outflows through the BSX. A snapshot of the hydrographic structure (CTD section) indicates that both models are good at reproducing the salinity. Nevertheless, they react differently to atmospheric cooling, although the same meteorological forcing was applied. This may be due to the different parameterisation of sea ice and that tides were included in only one of the models (ROMS). Proxies for the heat transport are found to be small at the BSX, and it can not be ruled out that the Barents Sea is a heat sink rather than a heat source for the Arctic Ocean.     

Antecedents of safety-compliant behaviour on offshore service vessels: a multi-factorial approach

Procedure violations are commonly identified as an essential causal factor in maritime accidents. This also applies to the Norwegian offshore service vessel sector. This illustrates that there is a need to study compliance and non-compliance in a broad context and to explore the factors that affect the propensity to act in accordance with prevailing procedures. The aim of the present study was therefore to examine the antecedents of safety-compliant behaviour among workers on offshore service vessels operating on the Norwegian Continental Shelf. With reference to a survey of 1108 offshore service vessel workers, this was done by analysing the relationship between a set of predictor variables and a self-report measure of safety-compliant behaviour. Using binary logistic regression analysis, the present study revealed that the safety climate and the vessel workers’ age were positively related to safety compliance, whereas job experience and perceived procedure vagueness were negatively related to safety compliance. Theoretical and managerial implications are discussed. In sum, the findings indicate that shipowners, captains and other stakeholders within the offshore service vessel industry should consider a broad multi-factorial approach to increase safety compliance.